44 Aspen Ln · New Kingstown, PA 17015

$54,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 804 sqft · Manufactured public records · 51 Days on market

Built 1974 $67/sqft · 221% above area ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.6/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 44 Aspen Lane in Carlisle, located in Cumberland Valley School District within Country Manor West MHP. This beautifully remodeled home offers 3 bedrooms and 1 full bath, combining comfort and modern updates throughout. Step inside to find a refreshed interior featuring new kitchen countertops, a stylish backsplash, updated flooring throughout, and fresh paint that gives the home a clean, move-in-ready feel. The bathroom has also been thoughtfully updated with a new vanity, along with a brand-new toilet and tub, adding both style and peace of mind. Several windows have also been replaced to enhance natural light and efficiency. Outside, enjoy a lovely covered deck and patio perfect for relaxing or entertaining along with a convenient storage shed for your extra belongings. The property also includes space for two off-street parking spots. Lot rent is $704.40 per month and includes water, sewer, and trash. Come see all this home has to offer—schedule your showing today!

Key facts

• 2 parking spots
• Built 1974
• Listed 51 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $54k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $54k).
• Recommended offer: $52k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 34.1% vs local median 2.8% in New Kingstown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#1,606 in PA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A, schools B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Cumberland Valley SD (suburban): math 54% / reading 71% proficiency, ranked #52 of 539 in PA (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 13% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 188 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,052 units permitted in Cumberland County in 2024 (310 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $373 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cumberland County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($52k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $52,380 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.80% ✓
• Cap rate: 34.05%
• Cash-on-cash: 99.14%
• DSCR: 5.41
• GRM: 2.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $16,823
• List price: $54,000
• Delta: 220.99%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
41 Cherry Ln	0.03mi	2/1.5 (-1)	792 (-2%)	7mo	$35,000	$44	83

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 5.69×
• Total profit: $70,840
• Equity at exit: $8,052

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 11.86×
• Total profit: $164,257
• Equity at exit: $4,669

Cash invested: $15,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 17015

• Home prices YoY: -25.2%
• Active inventory: 188
• Price-to-rent: 2.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,054 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$283
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$68 /mo · $810/yr
• Insurance: −$22
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$431
• Net cashflow: $1,249

Break-even live

Break-even rent $472

Max offer price $54,000

Occupancy floor 34%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $13,500
• Closing costs: $1,620
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-08
   price $54,000 999-char remark

   Show marketing remark (999 chars)

   Welcome to 44 Aspen Lane in Carlisle, located in Cumberland Valley School District within Country Manor West MHP. This beautifully remodeled home offers 3 bedrooms and 1 full bath, combining comfort and modern updates throughout. Step inside to find a refreshed interior featuring new kitchen countertops, a stylish backsplash, updated flooring throughout, and fresh paint that gives the home a clean, move-in-ready feel. The bathroom has also been thoughtfully updated with a new vanity, along with a brand-new toilet and tub, adding both style and peace of mind. Several windows have also been replaced to enhance natural light and efficiency. Outside, enjoy a lovely covered deck and patio perfect for relaxing or entertaining along with a convenient storage shed for your extra belongings. The property also includes space for two off-street parking spots. Lot rent is $704.40 per month and includes water, sewer, and trash. Come see all this home has to offer—schedule your showing today!

2. 2026-04-01
   listed $56,000 Active 999-char remark

   Show marketing remark (999 chars)

   Welcome to 44 Aspen Lane in Carlisle, located in Cumberland Valley School District within Country Manor West MHP. This beautifully remodeled home offers 3 bedrooms and 1 full bath, combining comfort and modern updates throughout. Step inside to find a refreshed interior featuring new kitchen countertops, a stylish backsplash, updated flooring throughout, and fresh paint that gives the home a clean, move-in-ready feel. The bathroom has also been thoughtfully updated with a new vanity, along with a brand-new toilet and tub, adding both style and peace of mind. Several windows have also been replaced to enhance natural light and efficiency. Outside, enjoy a lovely covered deck and patio perfect for relaxing or entertaining along with a convenient storage shed for your extra belongings. The property also includes space for two off-street parking spots. Lot rent is $704.40 per month and includes water, sewer, and trash. Come see all this home has to offer—schedule your showing today!

3. 2026-03-24
   historical $56,000 999-char remark

   Show marketing remark (999 chars)

   Welcome to 44 Aspen Lane in Carlisle, located in Cumberland Valley School District within Country Manor West MHP. This beautifully remodeled home offers 3 bedrooms and 1 full bath, combining comfort and modern updates throughout. Step inside to find a refreshed interior featuring new kitchen countertops, a stylish backsplash, updated flooring throughout, and fresh paint that gives the home a clean, move-in-ready feel. The bathroom has also been thoughtfully updated with a new vanity, along with a brand-new toilet and tub, adding both style and peace of mind. Several windows have also been replaced to enhance natural light and efficiency. Outside, enjoy a lovely covered deck and patio perfect for relaxing or entertaining along with a convenient storage shed for your extra belongings. The property also includes space for two off-street parking spots. Lot rent is $704.40 per month and includes water, sewer, and trash. Come see all this home has to offer—schedule your showing today!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,643
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,025
• − Property taxes: −$810
• − Insurance: −$270
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,971
• − Management: −$1,971
• − Depreciation: −$1,571
• Taxable income: $15,024
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,606
• After-tax cash flow: $11,384/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cumberland Valley SD
• NCES district ID: 4207110
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 71% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $78,135
• Composite: 55.77/100
• National rank: #1218
• State rank: #52 of 539 in PA

Livability — New Kingstown

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #1606
• US rank: #21798

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing C+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Cumberland County · 257,673 people
• Metro: Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA
• Population (ZIP): 24,385
• Household income: $86,981
• Rent vs Own: 17.9% rent · 82.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 172.0

Population outlook (Cumberland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 267,950 people
• By 2030: 278,105 · +3.8%
• By 2040: 296,552 · +10.7%
• By 2050: 312,937 · +16.8%
• By 2075: 349,233 · +30.3%
• By 2100: 361,875 · +35.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1% Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cumberland

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+9.4) · D 44.6% · R 54.1% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.2pp toward D · 2008: -13.6pp · 2024: -9.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+9.4 2020: R+10.6 2016: R+18.6 2012: R+18.5 2008: R+13.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -89.66%
• Current HPI: 265.9175
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

-3.6% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $54,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-01 Listed $56,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-24 Coming Soon $56,000 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+3.4%/yr

Latest (2026): $50 · +3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.