10 Juan Carlos Ln · River Park, FL 34952

$225,000

1 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,206 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 120 Days on market

Built 2023 4,356 sqft lot Est $177k · 27% over ↓ 13% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.8/30.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Spanish Lakes Riverfront offers the perfect blend of lifestyle and value in a vibrant 55+ community. Enjoy FREE golf on the Par 3, 9-hole course—an incredible perk for active living! Located on a quiet cul-de-sac, this pristine, move-in ready CBS home showcases beautiful lake views and a bright, inviting layout. Featuring 2 bedrooms (with the second bedroom offering pocket doors for added flexibility), 1.5 baths, and a 1-car garage, this home is designed for both comfort and convenience. Upgrades include a metal roof, impact-resistant windows, stainless steel appliances, granite countertops, elegant Hunter Douglas shades, a newer refrigerator, upgraded toilets, a tankless water heater

Key facts

• Screened patio
• Metal roof
• Lake view

Tags

• LAKE VIEW
• SCREENED PATIO
• METAL ROOF
• IMPACT WINDOWS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Paved road frontage west of US-1
• Financial info: Pets not allowed
• HOA & community: Senior community; Land lease of $699 monthly (lease through 01/01/2125)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with garage door opener (1 covered/garage space)
• Security: Security patrol
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Three-phase electric; Water and sewer available
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Resale property; Faces north
• Construction: Concrete/Stucco/CBS construction; Metal roof with wood truss/rafter; Built by Wynne Building Corporation (model: The Cottage)
• Exterior features: Covered patio and porch; Patio

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 2 main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heating; Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Cathedral and vaulted ceilings; Walk-in closets; Pull-down attic stairs; Storm windows
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $20 ($246/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $173k (23.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $173k (23.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#451 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, commute A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, employment F.
• St. Lucie (urban): math 40% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #51 of 73 in FL (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 639 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,868 units permitted in St. Lucie County in 2024 (268 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Lucie County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 120 days — a 9% lower offer ($205k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $172,751 (23.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 120 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.39%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $177,282
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8 Santa Maria Ct	0.13mi	2/2.0 (+1)	1,319 (+9%)	3mo	$145,000	$110	69
201 SE Camino Ct	0.64mi	2/2.0 (+1)	1,305 (+8%)	6mo	$266,500	$204	45
39 SE Flamenco Way	0.70mi	2/2.0 (+1)	1,357 (+12%)	6mo	$200,000	$147	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.92% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-37,117
• Equity at exit: $33,548

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-38,520
• Equity at exit: $19,454

Cash invested: $63,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34952

• Home prices YoY: -29.6%
• Rents YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 639
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,728 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax from tax record: −$71 /mo · $847/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$363
• Net cashflow: $20

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,702

Max offer price $225,000

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $148	-5% $84	+0% $20	+5% $-43	+10% $-107
Rent	-10% $-116	-5% $-48	+0% $20	+5% $89	+10% $157
Rate	-1.0pp $134	-0.5pp $78	base $20	+0.5pp $-38	+1.0pp $-97

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,250
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
730 SE White Ave Port Saint Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	1386	$10,000	$7.22	24d	1	0.70mi
7700 Pine Lakes Blvd Port Saint Lucie, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1022	$1,543	$1.51	15d	16	1.01mi
1900 Bella Vista Way Port Saint Lucie, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	995	$1,608	$1.62	15d	15	1.03mi
650 SE Evergreen Ter Port Saint Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	974	$2,095	$2.15	15d	1	1.15mi
13 Lake Vista Trl #205 Port Saint Lucie, FL	1.0	1.5	800	$1,375	$1.72	24d	1	1.23mi
14 Lake Vista Trl #101 Port Saint Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	1170	$2,200	$1.88	24d	1	1.27mi
8 Lake Vista Trl #205 Port Saint Lucie, FL	1.0	1.5	800	$1,500	$1.88	24d	1	1.28mi
11 Lake Vista Trl #206 Port Saint Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	1080	$1,400	$1.30	24d	1	1.30mi
4 Lake Vista Trl #202 Port Saint Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	1080	$1,700	$1.57	22d	1	1.33mi
26 Lake Vista Trl #201 Port Saint Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	1170	$1,500	$1.28	24d	1	1.36mi
28 Lake Vista Trl #205 Port Saint Lucie, FL	1.0	1.5	800	$1,600	$2.00	24d	1	1.37mi
2 Lake Vista Trl #107 Port Saint Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	1170	$1,850	$1.58	24d	1	1.37mi
30 Lake Vista Trl #205 Port Saint Lucie, FL	1.0	1.5	800	$1,300	$1.62	24d	1	1.37mi
991 SE Walters Ter Port Saint Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	1040	$8,500	$8.17	24d	1	1.39mi
1 Lake Vista Trl #201 Port Saint Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	1170	$1,800	$1.54	24d	1	1.41mi
213 NE Prima Vista Blvd Port Saint Lucie, FL	2.0	1.0	1012	$2,000	$1.98	24d	1	1.47mi
201 NE Midfield Ln Port Saint Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	1389	$2,500	$1.80	24d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $225,000 Active 120 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $225,000 Active 119 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $225,000 Active 118 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $225,000 Active 117 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $225,000 Active 115 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $225,000 Active 114 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $225,000 Active 112 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $225,000 Active 111 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $225,000 Active 110 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $225,000 Active 109 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $225,000 Active 106 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $225,000 Active 105 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $225,000 Active 104 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $225,000 Active 103 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $225,000 Active 102 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $225,000 Active 101 DOM
17. 2026-02-18
    listed $225,000 Active
18. 2024-11-06
    historical
19. 2024-10-24
    listed $299,000 Active
20. 2023-03-21
    status Pending
21. 2022-10-20
    price $269,000
22. 2022-05-18
    listed $259,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $847 · $71/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,868 · $156/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,020/yr (+$85/mo · 120.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,730
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$847
• − Insurance: −$1,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,658
• − Management: −$1,658
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable loss: −$3,708
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$890
• After-tax cash flow: $1,135/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Lucie
• NCES district ID: 1201770
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $44,737
• Composite: 37.28/100
• National rank: #4449
• State rank: #51 of 73 in FL

Livability — River Park

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #451
• US rank: #8159

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A- Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: River Park, FL
• County: Saint Lucie County · 337,150 people
• Metro: Port St. Lucie, FL
• Population (ZIP): 42,655
• Household income: $61,628
• Rent vs Own: 25.8% rent · 74.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1759.0

Population outlook (St. Lucie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 338,016 people
• By 2030: 355,687 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 385,521 · +14.1%
• By 2050: 406,106 · +20.1%
• By 2075: 441,054 · +30.5%
• By 2100: 436,885 · +29.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 14% Black 10% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 2% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2% Hispanic 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 16% French/Haitian/Cajun 3% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Lucie

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+9.1) · D 45.1% · R 54.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.2pp toward R · 2008: 12.1pp · 2024: -9.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+9.1 2020: R+1.6 2016: R+2.5 2012: D+7.9 2008: D+12.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -155.80%
• Current HPI: 371.0573
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.92%
• Metro: Port St. Lucie, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-13.1% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-18 Listed $225,000 Beaches MLS
• 2024-11-06 Listing Removed — Beaches MLS
• 2024-10-24 Listed $299,000 Beaches MLS
• 2023-03-21 Pending — RAIRCMLS
• 2022-10-20 Price Changed $269,000 RAIRCMLS
• 2022-05-18 Listed $259,000 RAIRCMLS

Property tax history

+5.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $847 · +5.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.