2767 Grahn Rd · Olive Hill, KY 41164

$110,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,196 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 111 Days on market

0.60 ac lot $50/sqft · 6% above area Est $104k · 6% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.3/30.0
• DSCR +8.3/10.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• Appreciation +5.5/10.0
• ARV discount +4.8/15.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome home to this 3 bed, 1 bath home on a spacious lot in the heart of rural Olive Hill! This property features a 1.5 story home with a NEW metal roof, a NEW supplemental mini split system, NEW laminate flooring, kitchen appliances and washer/dryer, as well as a fenced in yard! The perfect opportunity to continue to remodel this home to your own specifications or as an investment, don't wait to see this property - call today for your private viewing!

Key facts

• New metal roof
• Fenced in yard
• 0.6 acre lot

Tags

• NEW METAL ROOF
• NEW LAMINATE FLOORING
• FENCED IN YARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $110k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $182 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $110k).
• Recommended offer: $100k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.0% vs local median 4.8% in Olive Hill — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#160 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety C-, schools D.
• Carter County (rural): math 27% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #70 of 165 in KY (top 42%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 47 active listings in the ZIP; 1 units permitted in Carter County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($761 loan paydown + $1k appreciation (1.0% local appreciation)).
• Carter County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (1.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 111 days — a 9% lower offer ($100k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $62k; list at $110k implies a 77% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $100,100 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 111 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.00%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.67%
• DSCR: 1.43
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $103,673
• List price: $110,000
• Delta: 6.10%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

0.98% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.44×
• Total profit: $13,518
• Equity at exit: $37,427

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.53×
• Total profit: $47,196
• Equity at exit: $49,641

Cash invested: $30,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 41164

• Home prices YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 47
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,159 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$577
• Tax from tax record: −$44 /mo · $532/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$243
• Net cashflow: $182

Break-even live

Break-even rent $928

Max offer price $110,000

Occupancy floor 79%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,500
• Closing costs: $3,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $110,000 Active 111 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $110,000 Active 110 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $110,000 Active 109 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $110,000 Active 108 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $110,000 Active 106 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $110,000 Active 105 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $110,000 Active 103 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $110,000 Active 102 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $110,000 Active 101 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $110,000 Active 100 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $110,000 Active 97 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $110,000 Active 96 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $110,000 Active 95 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $110,000 Active 94 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $110,000 Active 93 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $110,000 Active 92 DOM
17. 2026-02-27
    listed $110,000 Active 457-char remark

    Show marketing remark (457 chars)

    Welcome home to this 3 bed, 1 bath home on a spacious lot in the heart of rural Olive Hill! This property features a 1.5 story home with a NEW metal roof, a NEW supplemental mini split system, NEW laminate flooring, kitchen appliances and washer/dryer, as well as a fenced in yard! The perfect opportunity to continue to remodel this home to your own specifications or as an investment, don't wait to see this property - call today for your private viewing!

18. 2008-07-25
    soldstatus $62,000
19. 1999-09-01
    soldstatus $45,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $532 · $44/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $946 · $79/mo
• Expected delta: +$414/yr (+$35/mo · 77.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,903
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,162
• − Property taxes: −$532
• − Insurance: −$1,348
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,112
• − Management: −$1,112
• − Depreciation: −$3,200
• Taxable income: $437
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$105
• After-tax cash flow: $2,076/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Carter County
• NCES district ID: 2101020
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -29.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $34,662
• Composite: 28.82/100
• National rank: #6656
• State rank: #70 of 165 in KY

Livability — Olive Hill

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #160
• US rank: #8044

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 12,372

Population outlook (Carter County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 25,627 people
• By 2030: 24,598 · -4.0%
• By 2040: 22,429 · -12.5%
• By 2050: 20,217 · -21.1%
• By 2075: 15,274 · -40.4%
• By 2100: 10,545 · -58.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Carter

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.5) · D 20.2% · R 78.6% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -48.9pp toward R · 2008: -9.5pp · 2024: -58.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.5 2020: R+52.9 2016: R+51.7 2012: R+21.3 2008: R+9.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.98%
• Current HPI: 288.8744
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+144.4% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-27 Listed $110,000 ImagineMLS
• 2008-07-25 Sold (Public Records) $62,000 Public Records
• 1999-09-01 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.5%/yr

Latest (2024): $532 · -0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.