2816 NE 14th Dr · Gainesville, FL 32609

$249,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,574 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 67 Days on market

Built 1964 10,019 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Under contract-accepting backup offers. 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home set on a corner lot in Gainesville with a layout that gives you options and space to spread out. Tile flooring runs throughout the home, making it both durable and easy to maintain. Inside, you’ll find additional flex space that works well as a home office, second living area, playroom, or hobby space depending on your needs. The outdoor space is just as functional with a fully fenced backyard and a generously sized yard, ideal for pets, entertaining, or simply enjoying some privacy. The corner lot adds extra breathing room and separation from neighboring homes. Located with easy access to downtown Gainesville, shopping, dining, and major roadways, making daily commutes and errands simple.

Key facts

• Large yard
• Tile flooring
• Corner lot

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• TILE FLOORING
• FLEXIBLE LIVING AREAS
• FULLY FENCED BACKYARD
• LARGE YARD
• QUICK ACCESS TO DOWNTOWN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $26 ($317/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $196k (21.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $196k (21.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#97 in FL, #1,480 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: employment D+, crime F.
• Alachua (urban): math 49% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #30 of 73 in FL (top 41%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Marjorie Kinnan Rawlings Elementary School (math 32% / reading 17%, grade F, #2,037 of 2,144 statewide, top 96%, 402 students, 92% FRL); Howard W. Bishop Middle School (math 52% / reading 56%, grade B-, #196 of 571 statewide, top 36%, 823 students, 58% FRL); Eastside High School (math 29% / reading 56%, grade F, #264 of 667 statewide, top 41%, 1,220 students, 56% FRL) — zoned schools average 68% FRL vs 48% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 111 active listings in the ZIP; 1,774 units permitted in Alachua County in 2024 (984 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,955/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($49k/yr) (locally 1037% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Alachua County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 67 days — a 6% lower offer ($235k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 27y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $54k; list at $250k implies a 363% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $195,509 (21.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 67 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.45%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.04% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-36,844
• Equity at exit: $37,261

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.69×
• Total profit: $-21,656
• Equity at exit: $21,607

Cash invested: $69,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32609

• Home prices YoY: -23.5%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 111
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,955 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$103 /mo · $1,242/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$411
• Net cashflow: $26

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,922

Max offer price $249,900

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $168	-5% $97	+0% $26	+5% $-44	+10% $-115
Rent	-10% $-128	-5% $-51	+0% $26	+5% $104	+10% $181
Rate	-1.0pp $152	-0.5pp $90	base $26	+0.5pp $-38	+1.0pp $-104

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,475
• Closing costs: $7,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-05-18
   status Pending 771-char remark

   Show marketing remark (771 chars)

   Under contract-accepting backup offers. 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home set on a corner lot in Gainesville with a layout that gives you options and space to spread out. Tile flooring runs throughout the home, making it both durable and easy to maintain. Inside, you’ll find additional flex space that works well as a home office, second living area, playroom, or hobby space depending on your needs. The outdoor space is just as functional with a fully fenced backyard and a generously sized yard, ideal for pets, entertaining, or simply enjoying some privacy. The corner lot adds extra breathing room and separation from neighboring homes. Located with easy access to downtown Gainesville, shopping, dining, and major roadways, making daily commutes and errands simple.

2. 2026-05-02
   price $249,900 771-char remark

   Show marketing remark (771 chars)

   Under contract-accepting backup offers. 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home set on a corner lot in Gainesville with a layout that gives you options and space to spread out. Tile flooring runs throughout the home, making it both durable and easy to maintain. Inside, you’ll find additional flex space that works well as a home office, second living area, playroom, or hobby space depending on your needs. The outdoor space is just as functional with a fully fenced backyard and a generously sized yard, ideal for pets, entertaining, or simply enjoying some privacy. The corner lot adds extra breathing room and separation from neighboring homes. Located with easy access to downtown Gainesville, shopping, dining, and major roadways, making daily commutes and errands simple.

3. 2026-04-16
   price $258,900 771-char remark

   Show marketing remark (771 chars)

   Under contract-accepting backup offers. 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home set on a corner lot in Gainesville with a layout that gives you options and space to spread out. Tile flooring runs throughout the home, making it both durable and easy to maintain. Inside, you’ll find additional flex space that works well as a home office, second living area, playroom, or hobby space depending on your needs. The outdoor space is just as functional with a fully fenced backyard and a generously sized yard, ideal for pets, entertaining, or simply enjoying some privacy. The corner lot adds extra breathing room and separation from neighboring homes. Located with easy access to downtown Gainesville, shopping, dining, and major roadways, making daily commutes and errands simple.

4. 2026-03-13
   listed $269,900 Active 771-char remark

   Show marketing remark (771 chars)

   Under contract-accepting backup offers. 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home set on a corner lot in Gainesville with a layout that gives you options and space to spread out. Tile flooring runs throughout the home, making it both durable and easy to maintain. Inside, you’ll find additional flex space that works well as a home office, second living area, playroom, or hobby space depending on your needs. The outdoor space is just as functional with a fully fenced backyard and a generously sized yard, ideal for pets, entertaining, or simply enjoying some privacy. The corner lot adds extra breathing room and separation from neighboring homes. Located with easy access to downtown Gainesville, shopping, dining, and major roadways, making daily commutes and errands simple.

5. 2015-07-23
   soldstatus $54,000 219-char remark

   Show marketing remark (219 chars)

   * * Under Contract * * Highland Court Manor with 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, updated kitchen, spacious great room, 2 screen porches and bright atmosphere on a corner lot. Fenced yard. This is a Fannie Mae HomePath Property.

6. 2014-12-18
   listed $49,900 219-char remark

   Show marketing remark (219 chars)

   * * Under Contract * * Highland Court Manor with 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, updated kitchen, spacious great room, 2 screen porches and bright atmosphere on a corner lot. Fenced yard. This is a Fannie Mae HomePath Property.

7. 2005-09-26
   soldstatus $130,000
8. 2005-09-20
   soldstatus $130,000
9. 2005-06-03
   listed $128,900
10. 2000-04-18
    soldstatus $65,400
11. 2000-04-14
    soldstatus $65,400
12. 2000-01-10
    soldstatus $47,000
13. 2000-01-04
    listed $68,900
14. 1999-11-09
    listed $57,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,242 · $103/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,074 · $173/mo
• Expected delta: +$832/yr (+$69/mo · 67.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,461
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,998
• − Property taxes: −$1,242
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,877
• − Management: −$1,877
• − Depreciation: −$7,270
• Taxable loss: −$4,052
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$973
• After-tax cash flow: $1,289/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alachua
• NCES district ID: 1200030
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $42,683
• Composite: 43.31/100
• National rank: #3038
• State rank: #30 of 73 in FL

Livability — Gainesville

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #97
• US rank: #1480

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Gainesville, FL
• County: Alachua County · 218,005 people
• City population: 188,348
• Metro: Gainesville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 19,752
• Household income: $49,406
• Rent vs Own: 48.8% rent · 51.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1037.0

Population outlook (Alachua County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 289,834 people
• By 2030: 305,873 · +5.5%
• By 2040: 335,246 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 364,719 · +25.8%
• By 2075: 436,665 · +50.7%
• By 2100: 482,920 · +66.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Black 33% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Alachua

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+21.0) · D 59.7% · R 38.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.6pp no change · 2008: 21.6pp · 2024: 21.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+21.0 2020: D+27.2 2016: D+22.5 2012: D+17.3 2008: D+21.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -93.25%
• Current HPI: 304.1951
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.04%
• Metro: Gainesville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+331.6% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-02 Price Changed $249,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $258,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-13 Listed $269,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-07-23 Sold (MLS) $54,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-12-18 Listed $49,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-09-26 Sold (Public Records) $130,000 Public Records
• 2005-09-20 Sold (MLS) $130,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-06-03 Listed $128,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2000-04-18 Sold (Public Records) $65,400 Public Records
• 2000-04-14 Sold (MLS) $65,400 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2000-01-10 Sold (MLS) $47,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2000-01-04 Listed $68,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1999-11-09 Listed $57,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

-1.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,242 · +4.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.