450 Fawn Lake Bridge Rd · Cherokee, AL 35674

$98,500

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,411 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 88 Days on market

Built 1981 0.78 ac lot $70/sqft · 45% below area Est $180k · 45% under ↓ 1% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to your very own Fortress of Solitude. This classic log cabin home features a low maintenance, metal roof, 3 bedrooms and 1-1/2 bathrooms. A covered porch facing a tranquil forest to watch the wildlife. The beautiful, natural wood decor throughout the home is ready for your personal touch. The adjoining lot conveys in this purchase, giving you a solid acre to call yours. Information is deemed accurate, but buyer should verify all relevant information.

Key facts

• Covered porch
• Metal roof
• Tranquil forest

Tags

• METAL ROOF
• COVERED PORCH
• TRANQUIL FOREST
• NATURAL WOOD DECOR
• ADJOINING LOT
• SOLID ACRE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $98k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $373 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $98k).
• Recommended offer: $93k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#205 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Colbert County (rural): math 13% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #90 of 129 in AL (top 70%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 220 active listings in the ZIP; 91 units permitted in Colbert County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $681 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Colbert County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 88 days — a 6% lower offer ($93k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 16y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $31k (24%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $27k; list at $98k implies a 271% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $92,590 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 88 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
6. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
7. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.23% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.21%
• DSCR: 1.72
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $179,678
• List price: $98,500
• Delta: -45.18%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
652 Fawn Lake Bridge Rd	0.21mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,430 (+1%)	23mo	$181,000	$127	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.28×
• Total profit: $7,729
• Equity at exit: $14,687

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.35×
• Total profit: $37,119
• Equity at exit: $8,516

Cash invested: $27,580 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35674

• Home prices YoY: -28.4%
• Active inventory: 220
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,209 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$517
• Tax from tax record: −$25 /mo · $298/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$254
• Net cashflow: $373

Break-even live

Break-even rent $737

Max offer price $98,500

Occupancy floor 64%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $428	-5% $401	+0% $373	+5% $345	+10% $317
Rent	-10% $277	-5% $325	+0% $373	+5% $420	+10% $468
Rate	-1.0pp $422	-0.5pp $398	base $373	+0.5pp $347	+1.0pp $321

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,625
• Closing costs: $2,955
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $98,500 Active 88 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $98,500 Active 87 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $98,500 Active 86 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $98,500 Active 85 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $98,500 Active 84 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $98,500 Active 82 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $98,500 Active 81 DOM
8. 2026-04-01
   price $98,500 463-char remark

   Show marketing remark (463 chars)

   Welcome to your very own Fortress of Solitude. This classic log cabin home features a low maintenance, metal roof, 3 bedrooms and 1-1/2 bathrooms. A covered porch facing a tranquil forest to watch the wildlife. The beautiful, natural wood decor throughout the home is ready for your personal touch. The adjoining lot conveys in this purchase, giving you a solid acre to call yours. Information is deemed accurate, but buyer should verify all relevant information.

9. 2026-03-10
   status Active 463-char remark

   Show marketing remark (463 chars)

   Welcome to your very own Fortress of Solitude. This classic log cabin home features a low maintenance, metal roof, 3 bedrooms and 1-1/2 bathrooms. A covered porch facing a tranquil forest to watch the wildlife. The beautiful, natural wood decor throughout the home is ready for your personal touch. The adjoining lot conveys in this purchase, giving you a solid acre to call yours. Information is deemed accurate, but buyer should verify all relevant information.

10. 2026-03-09
    status Pending 463-char remark

    Show marketing remark (463 chars)

    Welcome to your very own Fortress of Solitude. This classic log cabin home features a low maintenance, metal roof, 3 bedrooms and 1-1/2 bathrooms. A covered porch facing a tranquil forest to watch the wildlife. The beautiful, natural wood decor throughout the home is ready for your personal touch. The adjoining lot conveys in this purchase, giving you a solid acre to call yours. Information is deemed accurate, but buyer should verify all relevant information.

11. 2026-02-27
    listed $129,900 Active 463-char remark

    Show marketing remark (463 chars)

    Welcome to your very own Fortress of Solitude. This classic log cabin home features a low maintenance, metal roof, 3 bedrooms and 1-1/2 bathrooms. A covered porch facing a tranquil forest to watch the wildlife. The beautiful, natural wood decor throughout the home is ready for your personal touch. The adjoining lot conveys in this purchase, giving you a solid acre to call yours. Information is deemed accurate, but buyer should verify all relevant information.

12. 2017-05-05
    soldstatus $26,520
13. 2016-12-21
    listed $26,520
14. 2011-09-14
    soldstatus $78,000
15. 2011-05-28
    listed $79,900
16. 2010-09-09
    listed $99,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $298 · $25/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $404 · $34/mo
• Expected delta: +$106/yr (+$9/mo · 35.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 20% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,507
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,518
• − Property taxes: −$298
• − Insurance: −$492
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,161
• − Management: −$1,161
• − Depreciation: −$2,865
• Taxable income: $3,012
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$723
• After-tax cash flow: $3,749/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Colbert County
• NCES district ID: 0100840
• Math proficiency: 13% ▼ -24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $40,710
• Composite: 21.48/100
• National rank: #8328
• State rank: #90 of 129 in AL

Livability — Cherokee

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #205
• US rank: #16057

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Colbert County · 20,176 people
• Metro: Florence-Muscle Shoals, AL
• Population (ZIP): 20,176
• Household income: $64,706
• Rent vs Own: 25.3% rent · 74.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 372.0

Population outlook (Colbert County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 54,154 people
• By 2030: 53,746 · -0.8%
• By 2040: 52,431 · -3.2%
• By 2050: 50,303 · -7.1%
• By 2075: 44,789 · -17.3%
• By 2100: 36,676 · -32.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Black 11% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Colbert

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+46.4) · D 26.4% · R 72.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.2pp toward R · 2008: -20.3pp · 2024: -46.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+46.4 2020: R+38.9 2016: R+38.3 2012: R+20.4 2008: R+20.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -68.06%
• Current HPI: 171.9693
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Florence-Muscle Shoals, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

-1.4% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-01 Price Changed $98,500 SAARMLS
• 2026-03-10 Relisted — SAARMLS
• 2026-03-09 Pending — SAARMLS
• 2026-02-27 Listed $129,900 SAARMLS
• 2017-05-05 Sold (MLS) $26,520 SAARMLS
• 2016-12-21 Listed $26,520 SAARMLS
• 2011-09-14 Sold (MLS) $78,000 SAARMLS
• 2011-05-28 Listed $79,900 SAARMLS
• 2010-09-09 Listed $99,900 SAARMLS

Property tax history

+2.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $298 · +3.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.