423 Kaiolu St #207 · Urban Honolulu, HI 96815

$85,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 420 sqft · Condo public records · 185 Days on market

Built 1968 Fair condition $202/sqft · 64% below area $328/mo HOA · 15% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.4/10.0
• Rent growth +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

* FEE AVAILABLE * Discover your slice of paradise at the Promenade in Waikiki! This "old Hawaiian style" cozy 1-bedroom unit offers a perfect blend of comfort and convenience in the heart of iconic Waikiki neighborhood. Featuring an open floor plan with abundant natural light from extra window, low maintenance fee, and assigned PARKING stall. The Promenade provides easy access to world-famous Waikiki beaches, vibrant dining, shopping, and many entertainment options, making it a prime location for both residents and visitors. Whether you are seeking a comfortable home, a vacation retreat, or a prime investment opportunity, this 1-bedroom gem at the Promenade is the perfect choice for experiencing the best of Waikiki living. Schedule a showing today! This is a leasehold property and the fee is available to purchase, make this a fee simple property.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Prime location
• $328 HOA

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• ASSIGNED PARKING STALL
• EASY ACCESS TO BEACHES
• PRIME LOCATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $85k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $754 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $75k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 18.7% vs local median 1.5% in Urban Honolulu — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Hawaii Department Of Education (suburban): math 32% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #1 of 1 in HI (top 100%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: President Thomas Jefferson Elementary School (math 42% / reading 47%, grade F, #73 of 183 statewide, top 41%, 340 students, 55% FRL); President George Washington Middle School (math 30% / reading 46%, grade F, #17 of 42 statewide, top 39%, 569 students, 61% FRL); Kaimuki High School (math 12% / reading 47%, grade F, #35 of 43 statewide, top 86%, 620 students, 60% FRL) — zoned schools average 59% FRL vs 39% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.0%/yr); 1037 active listings in the ZIP; 29 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 82d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 66% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,638 units permitted in Honolulu County in 2024 (793 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($77k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($588 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (2.7% local appreciation)).
• Honolulu County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (2.7% appreciation + 6.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 185 days — a 12% lower offer ($75k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $122/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AO (mandatory federal flood insurance) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $74,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 185 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
6. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
7. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
8. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.55% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 44.20%
• DSCR: 2.97
• GRM: 3.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $236,714
• List price: $85,000
• Delta: -64.09%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
445 Kaiolu St #504	0.04mi	1/1.0	456 (+9%)	0mo	$210,750	$462	84
2240 Kuhio Ave #3007	0.14mi	1/1.0	444 (+6%)	0mo	$150,000	$338	84
2427 Kuhio Ave #1403	0.50mi	1/1.0	443 (+6%)	1mo	$785,000	$1,772	67
1880 Kahakai Dr #301	0.77mi	1/1.0	406 (-3%)	0mo	$255,000	$628	59
425 Ena Rd Unit 1108A	0.52mi	1/1.0	500 (+19%)	0mo	$148,000	$296	50
1777 Ala Moana Blvd #1537	0.67mi	1/1.0	500 (+19%)	1mo	$779,000	$1,558	43
1777 Ala Moana Blvd #2029	0.67mi	1/1.0	500 (+19%)	1mo	$780,000	$1,560	43
1720 Ala Moana Blvd Unit 603A	0.70mi	1/1.0	513 (+22%)	0mo	$70,000	$136	42
1388 Kapiolani Blvd #3104	1.26mi	1/1.0	521 (+24%)	0mo	$690,000	$1,324	40
1655 Makaloa St #1611	0.91mi	1/1.0	484 (+15%)	1mo	$270,000	$558	39
1655 Makaloa St #2114	0.91mi	1/1.0	484 (+15%)	1mo	$236,300	$488	39
1655 Makaloa St #2316	0.91mi	1/1.0	484 (+15%)	1mo	$270,000	$558	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.74% appreciation · 6.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 46.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.70×
• Total profit: $64,147
• Equity at exit: $36,995

10-year hold

• IRR: 48.5%
• Equity multiple: 8.32×
• Total profit: $174,153
• Equity at exit: $56,079

Cash invested: $23,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 37 Tenant-Leaning
• State Hawaii: 37 Tenant-Leaning · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Honolulu has source-of-income protections; warranty of habitability strong.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 3 active · 1 under contract
• Median asking: $385,000 ($733/sqft)
• Median days on market: 58 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: -23.1% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 96815

• Home prices YoY: 0.9%
• Rents YoY: 6.0%
• Active inventory: 1037
• Price-to-rent: 3.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,171 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax from tax record: −$30 /mo · $355/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$122 /mo · $1,468/yr
• HOA: −$328
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$456
• Net cashflow: $754

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,217

Max offer price $85,000

Occupancy floor 60%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $802	-5% $778	+0% $754	+5% $730	+10% $706
Rent	-10% $583	-5% $669	+0% $754	+5% $840	+10% $926
Rate	-1.0pp $797	-0.5pp $776	base $754	+0.5pp $732	+1.0pp $710

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,250
• Closing costs: $2,550
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 29 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
440 Olohana St Unit 1327711P Honolulu, HI	1.0	1.0	355	$3,741	$10.54	97d	1	0.22mi
440 Olohana St Unit 1327703P Honolulu, HI	1.0	1.0	355	$3,958	$11.15	93d	1	0.22mi
223 Saratoga Rd Honolulu, HI	3.0	1.0–3.0	948	$4,700	$4.96	86d	1	0.32mi
242 Kaiulani Ave Apt 11 Honolulu, HI	—	1.0	253	$1,250	$4.94	7d	1	0.39mi
242 Kaiulani Ave Unit 14 Honolulu, HI	—	1.0	253	$1,250	$4.94	67d	1	0.39mi
232 Kaiulani Ave Honolulu, HI	—	1.0	301	$2,098	$6.97	10d	3	0.39mi
242 Kaʻiulani Ave Unit 4 Honolulu, HI	—	1.0	253	$1,250	$4.94	4d	1	0.40mi
242 Kaʻiulani Ave Unit 6 Honolulu, HI	—	1.0	253	$1,250	$4.94	10d	1	0.40mi
242 Kaiulani Ave Honolulu, HI	—	1.0	253	$1,250	$4.94	119d	1	0.40mi
242 Kaiulani Ave Unit 9 Honolulu, HI	—	1.0	253	$1,250	$4.94	63d	1	0.40mi
2428 Koa Ave Apt 301 Honolulu, HI	1.0	1.0	348	$1,300	$3.74	6d	1	0.46mi
2442 Tusitala St Honolulu, HI	—	1.0	300	$1,700	$5.67	9d	1	0.49mi
2442 Tusitala St Apt 103 Honolulu, HI	—	1.0	300	$1,900	$6.33	139d	1	0.49mi
249 Kapili St Unit 1 Honolulu, HI	—	1.0	290	$1,350	$4.66	117d	1	0.52mi
249 Kapili St Unit 401B Honolulu, HI	—	1.0	225	$1,500	$6.67	82d	1	0.52mi
2463 Khi AVE Unit 1008 Honolulu, HI	—	1.0	286	$1,800	$6.29	58d	1	0.52mi
249 Kapili St #203 Honolulu, HI	—	1.0	238	$1,400	$5.88	10d	1	0.52mi
249 Kapili St Honolulu, HI	—	1.0	225	$1,400	$6.22	88d	2	0.52mi
2509 Ala Wai Blvd Honolulu, HI	—	1.0	215	$1,725	$8.02	119d	2	0.60mi
2509 Ala Wai Blvd #503 Honolulu, HI	—	1.0	215	$1,600	$7.44	88d	1	0.61mi
234 Ohua Ave #217 Honolulu, HI	—	1.0	257	$1,550	$6.03	119d	1	0.62mi
300 Wai Nani Way Unit L2108 Honolulu, HI	—	1.0	321	$2,100	$6.54	10d	1	0.71mi
300 Wai Nani Way Unit 1808 Honolulu, HI	—	1.0	321	$1,700	$5.30	139d	1	0.71mi
902 University Ave Unit C Honolulu, HI	2.0	1.0	415	$2,318	$5.58	119d	1	0.71mi
300 Wai Nani Way Unit II/1618 Honolulu, HI	—	1.0	333	$1,700	$5.11	7d	1	0.73mi
2572 Lemon Rd Honolulu, HI	1.0	1.0	398	$2,597	$6.53	82d	1	0.78mi
2572 Lemon Rd Honolulu, HI	1.0	1.0	398	$2,597	$6.53	87d	4	0.78mi
3140 Castle St Apt 4 Honolulu, HI	1.0	1.0	362	$1,775	$4.90	10d	1	0.99mi
234 Hua AVE Unit 103 Honolulu, HI	—	1.0	257	$1,550	$6.03	99d	1	1.04mi

HOA detail $328/mo · $3,936/yr condo

• Likely covers: parking
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $85,000 Active 185 DOM
2. 2026-09-23
   days on market $85,000 Active 184 DOM
3. 2026-09-22
   days on market $85,000 Active 183 DOM
4. 2026-09-21
   days on market $85,000 Active 182 DOM
5. 2026-09-20
   days on market $85,000 Active 181 DOM
6. 2026-09-19
   days on market $85,000 Active 180 DOM
7. 2026-09-18
   days on market $85,000 Active 179 DOM
8. 2026-09-17
   days on market $85,000 Active 178 DOM
9. 2026-09-16
   days on market $85,000 Active 177 DOM
10. 2026-09-15
    days on market $85,000 Active 176 DOM
11. 2026-09-14
    days on market $85,000 Active 175 DOM
12. 2026-09-13
    days on market $85,000 Active 174 DOM
13. 2026-09-12
    days on market $85,000 Active 173 DOM
14. 2026-09-11
    days on market $85,000 Active 172 DOM
15. 2026-09-05
    days on market $85,000 Active 166 DOM
16. 2026-09-04
    days on market $85,000 Active 165 DOM
17. 2026-09-03
    days on market $85,000 Active 164 DOM
18. 2026-08-31
    days on market $85,000 Active 161 DOM
19. 2026-08-29
    days on market $85,000 Active 159 DOM
20. 2026-08-28
    days on market $85,000 Active 158 DOM
21. 2026-08-27
    days on market $85,000 Active 157 DOM
22. 2026-08-25
    days on market $85,000 Active 155 DOM
23. 2026-08-24
    days on market $85,000 Active 154 DOM
24. 2026-08-23
    days on market $85,000 Active 153 DOM
25. 2026-08-22
    days on market $85,000 Active 152 DOM
26. 2026-08-21
    days on market $85,000 Active 151 DOM
27. 2026-08-20
    days on market $85,000 Active 150 DOM
28. 2026-08-19
    days on market $85,000 Active 149 DOM
29. 2026-08-18
    days on market $85,000 Active 148 DOM
30. 2026-08-17
    days on market $85,000 Active 147 DOM
31. 2026-08-16
    days on market $85,000 Active 146 DOM
32. 2026-08-15
    days on market $85,000 Active 145 DOM
33. 2026-08-14
    days on market $85,000 Active 144 DOM
34. 2026-08-13
    days on market $85,000 Active 143 DOM
35. 2026-08-12
    days on market $85,000 Active 142 DOM
36. 2026-08-11
    days on market $85,000 Active 141 DOM
37. 2026-08-10
    days on market $85,000 Active 140 DOM
38. 2026-08-09
    days on market $85,000 Active 139 DOM
39. 2026-08-08
    days on market $85,000 Active 138 DOM
40. 2026-08-07
    days on market $85,000 Active 137 DOM
41. 2026-08-06
    days on market $85,000 Active 136 DOM
42. 2026-08-05
    days on market $85,000 Active 135 DOM
43. 2026-08-04
    days on market $85,000 Active 134 DOM
44. 2026-08-03
    days on market $85,000 Active 133 DOM
45. 2026-07-31
    days on market $85,000 Active 130 DOM
46. 2026-07-30
    days on market $85,000 Active 129 DOM
47. 2026-07-30
    days on market $85,000 Active 128 DOM
48. 2026-07-28
    days on market $85,000 Active 127 DOM
49. 2026-07-26
    days on market $85,000 Active 125 DOM
50. 2026-07-24
    days on market $85,000 Active 123 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast HI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $355 · $30/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $355 · $30/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone AO · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,057
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,761
• − Property taxes: −$355
• − Insurance: −$1,892
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,085
• − Management: −$2,085
• − HOA: −$3,936
• − Depreciation: −$2,473
• Taxable income: $8,470
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,033
• After-tax cash flow: $7,019/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 3 photos

Fair 45/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $2,100–$6,300 screening

This 1-bedroom townhouse in Waikiki is in fair condition with some minor repairs and maintenance needed. It offers a good location and potential for value increase through cosmetic updates.

Components & finishes AI

Roof flat membrane Flooring wood

Deferred maintenance Est. $10,000–$30,000 screening

• Major Roof (roof|hvac|water heater|windows|electrical|plumbing|exterior|other) — The roof appears to be a flat membrane, which can be costly to replace if damaged.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Kitchen cabinets — Slight wear and tear visible on the cabinets.
• Minor Bathroom sink — Slight wear and tear visible on the sink.
• Minor Landscaping — Sparse vegetation and potential overgrowth.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint can improve the overall appearance and value of the property. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Both HVAC maintenance — A clean and functioning HVAC system is essential for comfort and energy efficiency, both of which are important for both resale and rental value. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 37/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary President Thomas Jefferson Elementary School F HI #73/183 Nat'l #16,061/41,679 Middle President George Washington Middle School F HI #17/42 Nat'l #6,571/14,009 High Kaimuki High School F HI #35/43 Nat'l #11,215/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hawaii Department Of Education
• NCES district ID: 1500030
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $69,005
• Composite: 37.07/100
• National rank: #4504
• State rank: #1 of 1 in HI

Livability — Urban Honolulu

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Urban Honolulu, HI
• County: Honolulu County · 1,072,641 people
• City population: 309,956
• Metro: Urban Honolulu, HI
• Population (ZIP): 27,530
• Household income: $77,096
• Rent vs Own: 55.1% rent · 44.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 15% of renters

---

Population outlook (Honolulu County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,072,641 people
• By 2030: 1,110,460 · +3.5%
• By 2040: 1,181,593 · +10.2%
• By 2050: 1,257,584 · +17.2%
• By 2075: 1,501,120 · +39.9%
• By 2100: 1,764,430 · +64.5%

---

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.71)
• Race & ethnicity: Asian 41% White 35% Two or more races 16% Hispanic / Latino 6% Pacific Islander 4% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 30% · China, South Korea, Canada
• Languages at home: 66% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 15% Chinese 5% Korean 3%

---

Political lean MEDSL · Honolulu

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+21.6) · D 59.9% · R 38.3% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.4pp toward R · 2008: 41.1pp · 2024: 21.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+21.6 2020: D+26.9 2016: D+29.9 2012: D+39.1 2008: D+41.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.74%
• Current HPI: 291.9404
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.00%
• Metro: Urban Honolulu, HI
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+30.8% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-23 Listed $85,000 HiCentral MLS
• 2026-03-09 Listing Removed — HiCentral MLS
• 2025-04-07 Listed $95,000 HiCentral MLS
• 2017-12-28 Sold (Public Records) $192,583 Public Records
• 2014-08-26 Sold (Public Records) $68,000 Public Records
• 2014-08-26 Sold (MLS) $68,000 HiCentral MLS
• 2013-12-16 Listed $78,000 HiCentral MLS
• 1989-10-17 Sold (Public Records) $2,000 Public Records
• 1988-05-01 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records
• 1988-05-01 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records
• 1983-03-01 Sold (Public Records) $48,000 Public Records
• 1982-12-01 Sold (Public Records) $40,000 Public Records
• 1980-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-3.8%/yr

Latest (2022): $355 · -14.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.