21426 Valley Forge Cir #1426 · King of Prussia, PA 19406

$289,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,254 sqft · Condo public records · 11 Days on market

Built 1976

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.8/30.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +4.4/5.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +0.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Opportunity Knocks with a VIEW at Valley Forge Towers! This 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom gem is brimming with potential, offering an affordable entry into one of the area’s most sought-after communities. Nestled in the Valley Forge Towers Luxury Condominiums, this maintenance-free community boasts 24/7 security and an unbeatable location where King of Prussia meets historic Valley Forge. Here, you’ll enjoy a laid-back lifestyle surrounded by top-tier amenities and the region’s finest conveniences. Step inside to discover a spacious, open-concept living area featuring a living room, dining room, coat closet, and a walk-in closet for additional storage. Adjacent to this space is a

Key facts

• Built 1976

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $289k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-572 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $257k (10.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $257k (10.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.9% vs local median 2.8% in King of Prussia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 88/100 on livability (#43 in PA, #238 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living D.
• Upper Merion Area SD (suburban): math 49% / reading 67% proficiency, ranked #71 of 539 in PA (top 13%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Caley El Sch (math 77% / reading 92%, grade A+, #14 of 1,518 statewide, top 2%, 416 students, 30% FRL); Upper Merion Ms (math 36% / reading 64%, grade C, #129 of 512 statewide, top 26%, 1,282 students, 47% FRL); Upper Merion Hs (math 75% / reading 24%, grade D+, #135 of 437 statewide, top 31%, 1,345 students, 38% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.6%/yr); 112 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,936 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (530 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $135k; list at $289k implies a 114% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 25% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $257,376 (10.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.92%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.49%
• DSCR: 0.62
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.63% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -28.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.03×
• Total profit: $-78,576
• Equity at exit: $43,091

10-year hold

• IRR: -20.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.18×
• Total profit: $-95,481
• Equity at exit: $24,987

Cash invested: $80,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 19406

• Rents YoY: 4.6%
• Active inventory: 112
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,574 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,516
• Tax from tax record: −$327 /mo · $3,919/yr
• Insurance: −$120
• HOA est. from 10 same-building comps: −$643
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$540
• Net cashflow: $-572

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,298

Max offer price $187,906

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-409	-5% $-490	+0% $-572	+5% $-654	+10% $-736
Rent	-10% $-776	-5% $-674	+0% $-572	+5% $-471	+10% $-369
Rate	-1.0pp $-427	-0.5pp $-499	base $-572	+0.5pp $-647	+1.0pp $-723

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,250
• Closing costs: $8,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
20321 Valley Forge Cir #321 King of Prussia, PA	1.0	1.5	1225	$2,250	$1.84	45d	1	0.03mi
1101 Penn Cir King of Prussia, PA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	872	$1,997	$2.29	0d	11	0.24mi
750 Moore Rd King of Prussia, PA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.5	1193	$4,206	$3.53	0d	17	0.34mi
751 Vandenburg Rd King of Prussia, PA	2.0	1.0–2.5	988	$3,162	$3.20	0d	26	0.44mi
1776 Patriots Ln Eagleville, PA	2.0	2.0	1123	$2,705	$2.41	0d	10	0.45mi
1876 Minutemen Ln Norristown, PA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	879	$2,569	$2.92	0d	22	0.56mi
2619 Audubon Rd Norristown, PA	3.0	1.0	1676	$2,600	$1.55	45d	1	0.82mi
140 Valley Green Ln King of Prussia, PA	2.0	1.0–2.0	894	$3,023	$3.38	0d	14	1.11mi
550 American Ave King of Prussia, PA	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,797	$1.80	26d	1	1.14mi
400 Drummers Ln Wayne, PA	2.0	2.0	1072	$1,950	$1.82	23d	1	1.16mi
414 Drummers Ln #414 Wayne, PA	2.0	2.0	1004	$2,280	$2.27	0d	1	1.18mi
555 S Goddard Blvd King of Prussia, PA	2.0	1.0–2.0	935	$3,850	$4.12	0d	4	1.18mi
300 Drummers Ln Unit 300 Wayne, PA	2.0	2.0	1004	$2,200	$2.19	7d	1	1.20mi
300 Drummers Ln Unit 300 Wayne, PA	2.0	2.0	1004	$2,400	$2.39	45d	1	1.20mi
580 S Goddard Blvd King of Prussia, PA	3.0	1.0–2.0	1024	$2,979	$2.91	0d	20	1.31mi
909 Lakeview Ct #909 King of Prussia, PA	3.0	3.5	1561	$3,700	$2.37	2d	1	1.32mi
625 S Goddard Blvd King of Prussia, PA	3.0	1.0–2.0	1050	$3,449	$3.28	0d	29	1.40mi
300 Village Dr King of Prussia, PA	2.0	1.0–2.0	971	$3,729	$3.84	0d	21	1.45mi
350 Village Dr King of Prussia, PA	3.0	1.0–2.0	1037	$3,560	$3.43	0d	14	1.46mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Likely covers: security
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 2 events

1. 2002-05-28
   soldstatus $135,000
2. 1990-05-01
   soldstatus $129,050

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,919 · $327/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,243 · $354/mo
• Expected delta: +$324/yr (+$27/mo · 8.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,885
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,188
• − Property taxes: −$3,919
• − Insurance: −$1,445
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,471
• − Management: −$2,471
• − HOA: −$7,716
• − Depreciation: −$8,407
• Taxable loss: −$11,732
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,816
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,051/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Upper Merion Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4224480
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 67% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $77,301
• Composite: 51.96/100
• National rank: #1645
• State rank: #71 of 539 in PA

Livability — King of Prussia

• Score: 88/100
• State rank: #43
• US rank: #238

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute A+ Cost of living D Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: King of Prussia, PA
• County: Montgomery County · 712,331 people
• City population: 30,362
• Metro: Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD
• Population (ZIP): 30,362
• Household income: $116,847
• Rent vs Own: 49.7% rent · 50.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1246.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 856,074 people
• By 2030: 870,887 · +1.7%
• By 2040: 891,195 · +4.1%
• By 2050: 896,417 · +4.7%
• By 2075: 903,212 · +5.5%
• By 2100: 843,240 · -1.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Asian 20% Black 8% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Scotch-Irish 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Other Indo-European 8% Other Asian/Pacific 4% Chinese 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+22.8) · D 60.9% · R 38.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.0pp toward D · 2008: 20.8pp · 2024: 22.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+22.8 2020: D+26.3 2016: D+21.1 2012: D+14.3 2008: D+20.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -227.49%
• Current HPI: 306.7903
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.63%
• Metro: Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+4.6% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2002-05-28 Sold (Public Records) $135,000 Public Records
• 1990-05-01 Sold (Public Records) $129,050 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.4%/yr

Latest (2026): $3,919 · +8.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.