13659 Kit Run · Splendora, TX 77372

$254,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,111 sqft · Land · 45 Days on market

Built 2026 4,800 sqft lot $50/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.2/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks

Love where you live in Townsend Reserve in Splendora, TX.  The Wisteria floor plan is a stunning two-story home, with soaring ceilings in the foyer, and features 4 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, a game room, and 2-car garage. This home has it all, including vinyl plank flooring throughout the common areas! The gourmet kitchen is sure to please with 42" cabinetry, granite countertops, and stainless-steel appliances. Retreat to the first-floor Owner's Suite featuring a box window, double sinks with granite countertops, a separate tub and shower, and a walk-in closet. Secondary bedrooms have walk-in closets, too! Enjoy the great outdoors with a covered patio with a gas stub out! Don't miss you

Key facts

• Wisteria floor plan
• Gourmet kitchen
• 42 cabinetry

Tags

• WISTERIA FLOOR PLAN
• VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• GOURMET KITCHEN
• 42 CABINETRY
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $255k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $166 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $221k (13.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $221k (13.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 5.2% in Splendora — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#911 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Splendora ISD (rural): math 25% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #648 of 826 in TX (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Piney Woods El (math 23% / reading 28%, grade F, #2,982 of 4,322 statewide, top 70%, 534 students, 55% FRL); Splendora J H (math 28% / reading 42%, grade F, #842 of 1,662 statewide, top 51%, 774 students, 62% FRL); Splendora H S (math 18% / reading 38%, grade F, #1,170 of 1,632 statewide, top 72%, 1,344 students, 59% FRL) — zoned schools at 59% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 550 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($79k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($247k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $19k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $220,714 (13.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.08%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.79%
• DSCR: 1.12
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.57×
• Total profit: $-30,809
• Equity at exit: $38,020

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.81×
• Total profit: $-13,517
• Equity at exit: $22,047

Cash invested: $71,397 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77372

• Home prices YoY: -2.1%
• Active inventory: 550
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,207 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,337
• Tax from tax record: −$84 /mo · $1,007/yr
• Insurance: −$106
• HOA: −$50
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$463
• Net cashflow: $166

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,997

Max offer price $254,990

Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $311	-5% $238	+0% $166	+5% $94	+10% $22
Rent	-10% $-8	-5% $79	+0% $166	+5% $253	+10% $341
Rate	-1.0pp $295	-0.5pp $231	base $166	+0.5pp $100	+1.0pp $33

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $63,748
• Closing costs: $7,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $50 · $600/yr
• Likely covers: gas

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-03-20
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-10
   status Active
3. 2026-02-10
   price $254,990
4. 2026-01-13
   status Pending
5. 2026-01-06
   listed $273,868 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,007 · $84/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,666 · $389/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,659/yr (+$305/mo · 363.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,486
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,283
• − Property taxes: −$1,007
• − Insurance: −$1,275
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,119
• − Management: −$2,119
• − HOA: −$600
• − Depreciation: −$7,418
• Taxable loss: −$2,335
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$560
• After-tax cash flow: $2,556/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Splendora ISD
• NCES district ID: 4841070
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $54,166
• Composite: 24.92/100
• National rank: #7572
• State rank: #648 of 826 in TX

Livability — Splendora

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #911
• US rank: #16335

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 14,367
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 14,367
• Household income: $79,085
• Rent vs Own: 18.7% rent · 81.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 135.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (61%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 36% Two or more races 9% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 32%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 28%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -6.47%
• Current HPI: 306.9962
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-6.9% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-20 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-02-10 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-02-10 Price Changed $254,990 HARMLS
• 2026-01-13 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-01-06 Listed $273,868 HARMLS

Property tax history

+39.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,007 · -0.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.