249 Creekstone Trl · Calera, AL 35040

$219,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,201 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 91 Days on market

Built 2005 9,147 sqft lot $183/sqft · at area comps Est $230k · at est. ↓ 2% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.2/30.0
• ARV discount +9.4/15.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This 3-bedroom, 2-bath home in Stonecreek Subdivision offers a great combination of comfort, convenience, and value. The property is move-in ready and features a modernized interior with spacious rooms throughout, providing plenty of flexibility for both everyday living and entertaining. The living room includes a cozy fireplace, creating a warm and inviting atmosphere, while the spacious kitchen offers ample room for cooking and gathering. Out back, you’ll find an open patio area—perfect for relaxing, grilling, or hosting guests. With its affordable price point and location just minutes from town, this home provides easy access to shopping, dining, and local amenities while still offering a peaceful neighborhood setting. Overall, it’s a well-maintained, budget-friendly option with desirable updates and comfortable living spaces.

Key facts

• Open patio area
• Modernized interior
• Cozy fireplace

Tags

• MODERNIZED INTERIOR
• COZY FIREPLACE
• OPEN PATIO AREA
• PEACEFUL NEIGHBORHOOD SETTING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-46 ($-552/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $212k (3.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $175k (20.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $175k (20.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 4.5% in Calera — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#325 in AL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Shelby County (suburban): math 30% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #16 of 129 in AL (top 12%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.7%/yr); 374 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 987 units permitted in Shelby County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Shelby County population projected at +23% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 91 days — a 9% lower offer ($200k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 56% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $175,229 (20.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 91 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.04%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.90%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $229,840
• List price: $219,900
• Delta: -4.32%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
212 Creekstone Trl	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,228 (+2%)	6mo	$235,000	$191	87
165 Creekstone Trl	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,204 (+0%)	7mo	$205,500	$171	86
142 Creekstone Trl	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,166 (-3%)	3mo	$222,000	$190	83
112 Waterstone Way	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,224 (+2%)	2mo	$232,500	$190	79
655 The Heights Ln	0.24mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,230 (+2%)	4mo	$195,000	$159	75
293 Rossburg Dr	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,190 (-1%)	3mo	$220,000	$185	68
615 Koslin Ct	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,272 (+6%)	6mo	$259,400	$204	58
364 Koslin Loop	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,272 (+6%)	5mo	$265,400	$209	57
388 Koslin Loop	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,272 (+6%)	3mo	$267,900	$211	57
181 Carrington Ln	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,310 (+9%)	0mo	$225,000	$172	54
935 Daventry Trl	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,341 (+12%)	4mo	$262,000	$195	44
115 Charlton Ln	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,367 (+14%)	2mo	$215,000	$157	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.67% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-37,401
• Equity at exit: $32,788

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-31,509
• Equity at exit: $19,013

Cash invested: $61,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35040

• Home prices YoY: -16.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.7%
• Active inventory: 374
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,752 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,153
• Tax from tax record: −$185 /mo · $2,226/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$368
• Net cashflow: $-46

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,810

Max offer price $211,776

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $78	-5% $16	+0% $-46	+5% $-108	+10% $-170
Rent	-10% $-184	-5% $-115	+0% $-46	+5% $23	+10% $92
Rate	-1.0pp $65	-0.5pp $10	base $-46	+0.5pp $-103	+1.0pp $-161

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,975
• Closing costs: $6,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
192 Stonecreek Pl Calera, AL	3.0	2.0	1220	$1,738	$1.42	4d	1	0.10mi
699 The Heights Ln Calera, AL	2.0	2.5	1100	$1,400	$1.27	11d	1	0.21mi
680 The Heights Ln Calera, AL	3.0	2.5	1397	$1,750	$1.25	2d	1	0.25mi
2000 Rossburg Pl Calera, AL	2.0	2.0	1142	$1,500	$1.31	4d	1	0.36mi
2027 Rossburg Pl Calera, AL	2.0	2.0	1073	$1,300	$1.21	24d	1	0.38mi
115 Charlton Ln Calera, AL	3.0	2.0	1367	$1,695	$1.24	44d	1	0.72mi
916 Daventry Trl Calera, AL	3.0	2.0	1331	$1,550	$1.16	3d	1	0.76mi
446 Savannah Cv Calera, AL	3.0	2.0	1492	$1,800	$1.21	24d	1	1.01mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $219,900 Active 91 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $219,900 Active 90 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $219,900 Active 89 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $219,900 Active 88 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $219,900 Active 86 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $219,900 Active 85 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $229,000 Active 83 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $229,000 Active 82 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $229,000 Active 81 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $229,000 Active 80 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $229,000 Active 77 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $229,000 Active 76 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $229,000 Active 75 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $229,000 Active 74 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $229,000 Active 73 DOM
16. 2026-05-10
    price $229,000 859-char remark

    Show marketing remark (859 chars)

    This 3-bedroom, 2-bath home in Stonecreek Subdivision offers a great combination of comfort, convenience, and value. The property is move-in ready and features a modernized interior with spacious rooms throughout, providing plenty of flexibility for both everyday living and entertaining. The living room includes a cozy fireplace, creating a warm and inviting atmosphere, while the spacious kitchen offers ample room for cooking and gathering. Out back, you’ll find an open patio area—perfect for relaxing, grilling, or hosting guests. With its affordable price point and location just minutes from town, this home provides easy access to shopping, dining, and local amenities while still offering a peaceful neighborhood setting. Overall, it’s a well-maintained, budget-friendly option with desirable updates and comfortable living spaces.

17. 2026-03-18
    listed $233,000 Active 859-char remark

    Show marketing remark (859 chars)

    This 3-bedroom, 2-bath home in Stonecreek Subdivision offers a great combination of comfort, convenience, and value. The property is move-in ready and features a modernized interior with spacious rooms throughout, providing plenty of flexibility for both everyday living and entertaining. The living room includes a cozy fireplace, creating a warm and inviting atmosphere, while the spacious kitchen offers ample room for cooking and gathering. Out back, you’ll find an open patio area—perfect for relaxing, grilling, or hosting guests. With its affordable price point and location just minutes from town, this home provides easy access to shopping, dining, and local amenities while still offering a peaceful neighborhood setting. Overall, it’s a well-maintained, budget-friendly option with desirable updates and comfortable living spaces.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,226 · $185/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,226 · $185/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 56% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,027
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,318
• − Property taxes: −$2,226
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,682
• − Management: −$1,682
• − Depreciation: −$6,397
• Taxable loss: −$4,377
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,051
• After-tax cash flow: $499/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Shelby County
• NCES district ID: 0103030
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -28.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $66,672
• Composite: 39.29/100
• National rank: #3995
• State rank: #16 of 129 in AL

Livability — Calera

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #325
• US rank: #19917

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Calera, AL
• County: Shelby County · 188,970 people
• City population: 19,304
• Metro: Birmingham-Hoover, AL
• Population (ZIP): 19,304
• Household income: $84,554
• Rent vs Own: 21.1% rent · 78.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 388.0

Population outlook (Shelby County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 237,024 people
• By 2030: 249,868 · +5.4%
• By 2040: 272,778 · +15.1%
• By 2050: 291,062 · +22.8%
• By 2075: 326,049 · +37.6%
• By 2100: 335,870 · +41.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Black 30% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 6% Arabic 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Shelby

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+40.9) · D 29.0% · R 69.9% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +12.6pp toward D · 2008: -53.4pp · 2024: -40.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+40.9 2020: R+40.4 2016: R+50.3 2012: R+55.6 2008: R+53.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -43.58%
• Current HPI: 220.2843
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.67%
• Metro: Birmingham-Hoover, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

-1.7% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-10 Price Changed $229,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2026-03-18 Listed $233,000 Greater Alabama MLS

Property tax history

+5.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,226 · +5.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.