46 Carlton Ave #4 · Carrabelle, FL 32323

$92,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 614 sqft · Townhouse · 105 Days on market

Built 1943 1,481 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.6/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Discover your charming coastal retreat! This cozy 2-bedroom, 1-bathroom cottage in Lanark Village is perfectly located near the Lanark Golf Course and is only about a half-mile from the water and the convenient Lanark boat ramp. It's the ideal spot for a perfect weekend getaway or a peaceful permanent home on the beautiful Forgotten Coast.

Key facts

• Coastal retreat
• Half-mile from water
• Lanark boat ramp

Tags

• COASTAL RETREAT
• HALF-MILE FROM WATER
• LANARK BOAT RAMP

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces; On-street parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity available; Cable available; Phone service available; Water available; Sewer available
• Home design: Attached single-family townhouse; Residential property; New construction
• Construction: Block construction; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Metal roof; Interior lot; Sidewalks (community)

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Wall furnace heating; Wall/window air conditioning units
• Interior features: Refrigerator included; Vinyl flooring

🏗️ New construction. The $92,000 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $113,590.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $92k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-58 ($-698/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($920 rent vs $92k).
• Recommended offer: $84k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 1.9% in Carrabelle — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#466 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D, schools F, amenities F.
• Franklin (rural): math 33% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #67 of 73 in FL (top 92%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 84% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 73 active listings in the ZIP; 113 units permitted in Franklin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($786 loan paydown + $1k appreciation (1.2% local appreciation)).
• Franklin County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 105 days — a 9% lower offer ($84k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1943 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $83,720 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 105 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1943 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.68%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.19%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $113,590
• Comps found: 11

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
52-6 Parker Ave	0.18mi	2/1.0	630 (+3%)	2mo	$165,000	$262	86
50-1 E Pine St	0.05mi	2/1.0	578 (-6%)	4mo	$148,000	$256	84
30-3 Parker Ave	0.18mi	1/1.0 (-1)	610 (-1%)	7mo	$100,000	$164	80
30 Parker Ave #3	0.19mi	1/1.0 (-1)	610 (-1%)	7mo	$100,000	$164	79
30-5 Heffernan Dr	0.20mi	2/1.0	550 (-10%)	1mo	$90,000	$164	73
49-3 E Pine St	0.07mi	1/1.0 (-1)	662 (+8%)	8mo	$134,500	$203	72
54-5 Parker Ave	0.22mi	2/1.0	565 (-8%)	7mo	$104,500	$185	70
10 Pine St #7	0.20mi	1/1.0 (-1)	654 (+6%)	13mo	$55,000	$84	64
20-3 Collins St	0.30mi	2/1.0	658 (+7%)	14mo	$128,000	$195	62
22-6 W Pine St #6	0.28mi	1/1.0 (-1)	620 (+1%)	22mo	$114,000	$184	62
12-3 Parker Ave	0.21mi	2/1.0	525 (-14%)	13mo	$130,000	$248	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.24% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.99×
• Total profit: $-252
• Equity at exit: $40,175

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.57×
• Total profit: $18,032
• Equity at exit: $54,486

Cash invested: $31,805 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32323

• Home prices YoY: 0.9%
• Active inventory: 73
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $920 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$596
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$142 /mo · $1,704/yr
• Insurance: −$47
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$193
• Net cashflow: $-58

Break-even live

Break-even rent $994

Max offer price $105,176

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,398
• Closing costs: $3,408
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $92,000 Active 105 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $92,000 Active 104 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $92,000 Active 103 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $92,000 Active 102 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $92,000 Active 101 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $92,000 Active 99 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $92,000 Active 98 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $92,000 Active 96 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $92,000 Active 95 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $92,000 Active 94 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $92,000 Active 93 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $92,000 Active 90 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $92,000 Active 89 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $92,000 Active 88 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $92,000 Active 87 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $92,000 Active 86 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $92,000 Active 85 DOM
18. 2026-05-05
    status Active
19. 2026-03-30
    historical Active Under Contract
20. 2026-03-06
    listed $92,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,041
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,363
• − Property taxes: −$1,704
• − Insurance: −$568
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$883
• − Management: −$883
• − Depreciation: −$3,304
• Taxable loss: −$2,665
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$640
• After-tax cash flow: $-58/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Franklin
• NCES district ID: 1200570
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $39,084
• Composite: 29.7/100
• National rank: #6454
• State rank: #67 of 73 in FL

Livability — Carrabelle

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #466
• US rank: #8398

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 28

Population outlook (Franklin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 11,827 people
• By 2030: 11,839 · +0.1%
• By 2040: 11,707 · -1.0%
• By 2050: 11,218 · -5.1%
• By 2075: 9,849 · -16.7%
• By 2100: 7,286 · -38.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (100%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 100%

Political lean MEDSL · Franklin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+43.8) · D 27.7% · R 71.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.9pp toward R · 2008: -27.9pp · 2024: -43.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+43.8 2020: R+37.3 2016: R+39.7 2012: R+31.5 2008: R+27.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.24%
• Current HPI: 143.9448
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Relisted — RAFGC
• 2026-03-30 Contingent — RAFGC
• 2026-03-06 Listed $92,000 RAFGC