1033 Rock City Rd · Milton, NY 12863

$160,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 2,072 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 80 Days on market

Built 1953 1.36 ac lot $77/sqft · 72% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.2/30.0
• Appreciation +8.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

3-bedroom, 1.5-bath single-family home with permitted garage addition and plenty of parking space, including a 60-ft driveway. Flat yard with mature trees, two sheds, and a hot tub in the backyard. Finished basement with two rooms, laundry area, workshop, and small gym setup. Pellet stove for supplemental heat and furnace in working condition. Well system upgraded with new pump and tank. Windows replaced and newer electrical panel. Kitchen and bathrooms are functional with room for updates. Great opportunity with solid bones and extra space. Assignment Listing.

Key facts

• Hot tub
• 60-ft driveway
• Flat yard

Tags

• PERMITTED GARAGE ADDITION
• 60-FT DRIVEWAY
• FLAT YARD
• MATURE TREES
• TWO SHEDS
• HOT TUB

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-62 ($-740/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $149k (6.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $149k (7.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $149k (7.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 2.4% in Milton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#652 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living D-.
• Ballston Spa Central School District (suburban): math 54% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #289 of 590 in NY (top 49%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 14 active listings in the ZIP; 1,132 units permitted in Saratoga County in 2024 (378 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $12k appreciation (7.7% local appreciation)).
• Saratoga County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (7.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 80 days — a 6% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 23y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $55k (26%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1953 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $148,685 (7.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 80 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 7% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1953 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.83%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.65%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $463,508
• List price: $160,000
• Delta: -65.48%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 17 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
36 Creekside Dr	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,910 (-8%)	3mo	$684,780	$359	54
32 Creekside Dr	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,910 (-8%)	14mo	$654,980	$343	48
35 Creekside Dr	0.53mi	3/2.5	2,358 (+14%)	6mo	$785,390	$333	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

7.72% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.32×
• Total profit: $59,268
• Equity at exit: $118,558

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.2%
• Equity multiple: 4.91×
• Total profit: $175,030
• Equity at exit: $232,532

Cash invested: $44,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12863

• Home prices YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 14
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,487 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$331 /mo · $3,967/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$312
• Net cashflow: $-62

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,565

Max offer price $149,108

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $29	-5% $-16	+0% $-62	+5% $-107	+10% $-152
Rent	-10% $-179	-5% $-120	+0% $-62	+5% $-3	+10% $56
Rate	-1.0pp $19	-0.5pp $-21	base $-62	+0.5pp $-103	+1.0pp $-145

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,000
• Closing costs: $4,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-05-31
   days on market $160,000 Active 80 DOM
2. 2026-05-31
   days on market $160,000 Active 79 DOM
3. 2026-04-16
   price $160,000 567-char remark

   Show marketing remark (567 chars)

   3-bedroom, 1.5-bath single-family home with permitted garage addition and plenty of parking space, including a 60-ft driveway. Flat yard with mature trees, two sheds, and a hot tub in the backyard. Finished basement with two rooms, laundry area, workshop, and small gym setup. Pellet stove for supplemental heat and furnace in working condition. Well system upgraded with new pump and tank. Windows replaced and newer electrical panel. Kitchen and bathrooms are functional with room for updates. Great opportunity with solid bones and extra space. Assignment Listing.

4. 2026-04-06
   price $169,000 567-char remark

   Show marketing remark (567 chars)

   3-bedroom, 1.5-bath single-family home with permitted garage addition and plenty of parking space, including a 60-ft driveway. Flat yard with mature trees, two sheds, and a hot tub in the backyard. Finished basement with two rooms, laundry area, workshop, and small gym setup. Pellet stove for supplemental heat and furnace in working condition. Well system upgraded with new pump and tank. Windows replaced and newer electrical panel. Kitchen and bathrooms are functional with room for updates. Great opportunity with solid bones and extra space. Assignment Listing.

5. 2026-03-25
   price $179,000 567-char remark

   Show marketing remark (567 chars)

   3-bedroom, 1.5-bath single-family home with permitted garage addition and plenty of parking space, including a 60-ft driveway. Flat yard with mature trees, two sheds, and a hot tub in the backyard. Finished basement with two rooms, laundry area, workshop, and small gym setup. Pellet stove for supplemental heat and furnace in working condition. Well system upgraded with new pump and tank. Windows replaced and newer electrical panel. Kitchen and bathrooms are functional with room for updates. Great opportunity with solid bones and extra space. Assignment Listing.

6. 2026-03-12
   listed $215,000 Active 567-char remark

   Show marketing remark (567 chars)

   3-bedroom, 1.5-bath single-family home with permitted garage addition and plenty of parking space, including a 60-ft driveway. Flat yard with mature trees, two sheds, and a hot tub in the backyard. Finished basement with two rooms, laundry area, workshop, and small gym setup. Pellet stove for supplemental heat and furnace in working condition. Well system upgraded with new pump and tank. Windows replaced and newer electrical panel. Kitchen and bathrooms are functional with room for updates. Great opportunity with solid bones and extra space. Assignment Listing.

7. 2011-05-04
   soldstatus $220,000
8. 2011-05-04
   soldstatus $220,000
9. 2011-04-25
   soldstatus $220,001 287-char remark

   Show marketing remark (287 chars)

   Updated home on a beautiful fenced in 1.4 acre lot. ALL NEW: Finished basement w/ pellett stove, family room, office, mudroom,garage doors. Updated windows, appliances and flooring. Quiet country setting minutes to downtown Saratoga and Ballston Spa. Broker is owner. Excellent Condition

10. 2010-08-15
    historical 287-char remark

    Show marketing remark (287 chars)

    Updated home on a beautiful fenced in 1.4 acre lot. ALL NEW: Finished basement w/ pellett stove, family room, office, mudroom,garage doors. Updated windows, appliances and flooring. Quiet country setting minutes to downtown Saratoga and Ballston Spa. Broker is owner. Excellent Condition

11. 2010-07-12
    listed $225,000 287-char remark

    Show marketing remark (287 chars)

    Updated home on a beautiful fenced in 1.4 acre lot. ALL NEW: Finished basement w/ pellett stove, family room, office, mudroom,garage doors. Updated windows, appliances and flooring. Quiet country setting minutes to downtown Saratoga and Ballston Spa. Broker is owner. Excellent Condition

12. 2010-06-22
    historical
13. 2009-10-19
    listed $225,000
14. 2009-07-06
    historical
15. 2009-05-20
    listed $233,000
16. 2005-12-13
    soldstatus $199,000
17. 2005-12-01
    soldstatus $189,000
18. 2005-09-22
    soldstatus $230,000
19. 2005-09-12
    listed $199,000
20. 2004-05-13
    listed $215,000
21. 2003-11-03
    soldstatus $102,000
22. 2003-10-29
    soldstatus $102,000
23. 2003-10-06
    historical
24. 2003-08-22
    listed $117,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,967 · $331/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,967 · $331/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,842
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,962
• − Property taxes: −$3,967
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,427
• − Management: −$1,427
• − Depreciation: −$4,655
• Taxable loss: −$3,396
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$815
• After-tax cash flow: $75/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ballston Spa Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3603930
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $66,705
• Composite: 48.12/100
• National rank: #2184
• State rank: #289 of 590 in NY

Livability — Milton

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #652
• US rank: #11825

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D- Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 870

Population outlook (Saratoga County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 238,889 people
• By 2030: 243,681 · +2.0%
• By 2040: 249,118 · +4.3%
• By 2050: 248,638 · +4.1%
• By 2075: 241,675 · +1.2%
• By 2100: 213,150 · -10.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (99%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 99% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 9% Italian 6% Romanian 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Saratoga

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.9% · R 49.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.6pp toward R · 2008: 3.4pp · 2024: 1.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.8 2020: D+5.4 2016: R+4.4 2012: D+2.1 2008: D+3.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.72%
• Current HPI: 320.2866
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+36.2% since first listed

22 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $160,000 Global MLS
• 2026-04-06 Price Changed $169,000 Global MLS
• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $179,000 Global MLS
• 2026-03-12 Listed $215,000 Global MLS
• 2011-05-04 Sold (Public Records) $220,000 Public Records
• 2011-05-04 Sold (Public Records) $220,000 Public Records
• 2011-04-25 Sold (MLS) $220,001 Global MLS
• 2010-08-15 Listing Removed — Global MLS
• 2010-07-12 Listed $225,000 Global MLS
• 2010-06-22 Listing Removed — Global MLS
• 2009-10-19 Listed $225,000 Global MLS
• 2009-07-06 Listing Removed — Global MLS
• 2009-05-20 Listed $233,000 Global MLS
• 2005-12-13 Sold (Public Records) $199,000 Public Records
• 2005-12-01 Sold (MLS) $189,000 Global MLS
• 2005-09-22 Sold (MLS) $230,000 Global MLS
• 2005-09-12 Listed $199,000 Global MLS
• 2004-05-13 Listed $215,000 Global MLS
• 2003-11-03 Sold (Public Records) $102,000 Public Records
• 2003-10-29 Sold (MLS) $102,000 Global MLS
• 2003-10-06 Listing Removed — Global MLS
• 2003-08-22 Listed $117,500 Global MLS

Property tax history

+3.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,967 · +0.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.