233 Mallard Dr · Flowood, MS 39047

$219,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,532 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1995 0.25 ac lot Est $251k · 13% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.7/30.0
• ARV discount +13.2/15.0
• DSCR +6.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This home is must see! New paint and new floors throughout. This home is located in walking distance of the Ross Barnett Reservoir where you have access to a boat launch and walking trails. This home qualifies for 100% USDA/rural financing. Call your realtor today for a showing.

Key facts

• Public boat launch
• Nearby reservoir
• 0.25 acre lot

Tags

• MARBLEHEAD SUBDIVISION
• WALKING AND BIKING TRAILS
• NEARBY RESERVOIR
• PUBLIC BOAT LAUNCH

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Biking trails and hiking/walking trails in the community

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage with garage door opener
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity available; Natural gas available; Cable available
• Home design: Single-family house; One story; Zero lot line
• Construction: Brick and lap siding construction; Slab foundation; Architectural shingle roof; Built (year per public records)
• Exterior features: Front porch; Patio; Private yard; Back yard with wood privacy fence

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Bedrooms located on one level
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas); Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: High ceilings; Aluminum framed windows with blinds; Gas log fireplace in the living room
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $298 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $210k (4.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $210k (4.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 4.3% in Flowood — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#10 in MS, #3,075 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Rankin County School District (rural): math 56% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #6 of 130 in MS (top 5%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Northshore Elementary (math 82% / reading 68%, grade A, #5 of 375 statewide, top 1%, 551 students, 100% FRL); Northwest Rankin Middle School (math 63% / reading 51%, grade B, #13 of 179 statewide, top 7%, 1,374 students, 100% FRL); Northwest Rankin High School (math 48% / reading 42%, grade D-, #34 of 197 statewide, top 17%, 1,898 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 35% district-wide (65 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 433 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 343 units permitted in Rankin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Rankin County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 78% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $210,114 (4.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.92%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.82%
• DSCR: 1.26
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $251,248
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
533 Greenhead Cir	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,560 (+2%)	9mo	$249,900	$160	84
232 Mallard Dr	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,450 (-5%)	7mo	$214,999	$148	84
537 Greenhead Cir	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,440 (-6%)	4mo	$255,000	$177	82
227 Mallard Dr	0.05mi	3/1.0	1,556 (+2%)	14mo	$279,900	$180	80
238 Mandarin Drive Dr	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,501 (-2%)	9mo	$259,900	$173	76
195 Mandarin Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,574 (+3%)	19mo	$252,900	$161	72
259 Mallard Dr	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,608 (+5%)	13mo	$255,000	$159	71
183 Mandarin Dr	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,610 (+5%)	16mo	$279,900	$174	69
202 Mallard Dr	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,624 (+6%)	14mo	$285,000	$175	68
245 Mallard Dr	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,717 (+12%)	10mo	$252,000	$147	67
204 Mallard Dr	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,676 (+9%)	15mo	$274,900	$164	61
214 Mandarin Dr	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,721 (+12%)	14mo	$250,000	$145	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.9% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.73×
• Total profit: $-16,865
• Equity at exit: $32,728

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.14×
• Total profit: $8,629
• Equity at exit: $18,978

Cash invested: $61,460 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39047

• Home prices YoY: -32.6%
• Rents YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 433
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,101 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,151
• Tax from tax record: −$119 /mo · $1,433/yr
• Insurance: −$91
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$441
• Net cashflow: $298

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,724

Max offer price $219,500

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $422	-5% $360	+0% $298	+5% $236	+10% $174
Rent	-10% $132	-5% $215	+0% $298	+5% $381	+10% $464
Rate	-1.0pp $409	-0.5pp $354	base $298	+0.5pp $241	+1.0pp $183

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,875
• Closing costs: $6,585
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $219,500 Active 6 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $219,500 Active 5 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $219,500 Active 4 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $219,500 Active 3 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   remarks 699-char remark
6. 2026-06-13
   listed $219,500 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,433 · $119/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,734 · $145/mo
• Expected delta: +$301/yr (+$25/mo · 21.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 7/10 Severe 78% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,214
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,295
• − Property taxes: −$1,433
• − Insurance: −$1,098
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,017
• − Management: −$2,017
• − Depreciation: −$6,385
• Taxable loss: −$31
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$8
• After-tax cash flow: $3,583/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rankin County School District
• NCES district ID: 2803830
• Math proficiency: 56% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $61,867
• Composite: 45.62/100
• National rank: #2587
• State rank: #6 of 130 in MS

Livability — Flowood

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #10
• US rank: #3075

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Rankin County · 123,614 people
• City population: 9,222
• Metro: Jackson, MS
• Population (ZIP): 40,808
• Household income: $100,347
• Rent vs Own: 14.7% rent · 85.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 551.0

Population outlook (Rankin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 164,317 people
• By 2030: 171,013 · +4.1%
• By 2040: 182,723 · +11.2%
• By 2050: 192,376 · +17.1%
• By 2075: 209,535 · +27.5%
• By 2100: 209,534 · +27.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Black 16% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Slovak 3% Serbian 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Rankin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.1) · D 25.9% · R 73.0% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.4pp toward D · 2008: -53.5pp · 2024: -47.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.1 2020: R+45.4 2016: R+52.9 2012: R+51.9 2008: R+53.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -79.01%
• Current HPI: 162.9709
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.90%
• Metro: Jackson, MS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+53.5% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Listed $219,500 MLSU
• 2015-03-27 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2015-02-16 Listed $143,000 MLSU

Property tax history

+3.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,433 · +7.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.