16711 Marsh Creek Rd #96 · Antioch, CA 94517

$189,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 944 sqft · Other · 18 Days on market

Built 2018

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to Clayton Palms—an all-ages community set among the beautiful rolling hills of Marsh Creek Road. This refreshed 2-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home features brand-new carpet, complemented by luxury vinyl plank flooring for a clean, modern look. The light and bright layout offers comfortable living spaces with a warm, neutral color palette that feels instantly inviting. Enjoy a kitchen with attractive cabinets, tons of storage, and a living area designed for easy everyday living, along with two well-appointed bathrooms and cozy bedroom retreats. Large windows bring in plenty of natural light, enhancing the home’s airy feel. A large shed and spacious covered carport compl

Key facts

• Natural light
• Community pool
• Built 2018

Tags

• RESORT-STYLE AMENITIES
• CLOSE PROXIMITY TO SHOPPING
• CLOSE PROXIMITY TO DINING
• BRENTWOOD SCHOOL DISTRICT
• NATURAL LIGHT
• COZY BEDROOM RETREATS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Pets allowed: cats and dogs; Community amenities include clubhouse, fitness center, pool, playground, BBQ area, game room, rec room with fireplace, laundry, park, picnic area, RV parking/storage and activities

Exterior

• Parking: Carport for 2 or more vehicles
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; 220V in kitchen / electric
• Home design: Manufactured in park (mobile home); Double wide (Golden Pacific model); Faces east
• Construction: Wood siding
• Exterior features: Corner lot; Community pool; Community clubhouse; Fitness center; Playground; BBQ area; Exercise court; Game room; Laundry facility (community); Park and picnic area; Recreation room with fireplace; RV parking and RV storage

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas range / cooktop; Free-standing range; Microwave; Disposal; Refrigerator; 220V outlet; Solid surface countertops
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (street level)
• Flooring: Laminate; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Shower over tub; Stall shower
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Solid surface counters; Dining area; Window coverings; Updated bathrooms
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room with washer and dryer; 220V outlet

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $189k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $975 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $189k).
• Recommended offer: $186k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.9% vs local median 3.9% in Antioch — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#782 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Brentwood Union Elementary (suburban): math 51% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #268 of 1,400 in CA (top 19%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 60 active listings in the ZIP; 2,169 units permitted in Contra Costa County in 2024 (896 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Contra Costa County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $53k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($186k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $186,165 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.45% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.90%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.61%
• DSCR: 2.05
• GRM: 5.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.59×
• Total profit: $31,417
• Equity at exit: $28,181

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.02×
• Total profit: $107,154
• Equity at exit: $16,341

Cash invested: $52,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94517

• Active inventory: 60
• Price-to-rent: 5.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,732 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$991
• Tax from tax record: −$48 /mo · $571/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$574
• Net cashflow: $975

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,499

Max offer price $189,000

Occupancy floor 59%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,082	-5% $1,028	+0% $975	+5% $921	+10% $868
Rent	-10% $759	-5% $867	+0% $975	+5% $1,083	+10% $1,191
Rate	-1.0pp $1,070	-0.5pp $1,023	base $975	+0.5pp $926	+1.0pp $876

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,250
• Closing costs: $5,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $189,000 Active 18 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $189,000 Active 15 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $189,000 Active 14 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $189,000 Active 13 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $189,000 Active 12 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $189,000 Active 10 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $189,000 Active 9 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $189,000 Active 6 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $189,000 Active 5 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $189,000 Active 4 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    remarks 687-char remark
12. 2026-06-04
    listed $189,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $571 · $48/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,436 · $120/mo
• Expected delta: +$866/yr (+$72/mo · 151.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 17 unhealthy d/yr today · 18 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,788
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,587
• − Property taxes: −$571
• − Insurance: −$1,742
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,623
• − Management: −$2,623
• − Depreciation: −$5,498
• Taxable income: $9,144
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,195
• After-tax cash flow: $9,501/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brentwood Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0605910
• Math proficiency: 51% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $91,644
• Composite: 52.7/100
• National rank: #3320
• State rank: #268 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Antioch

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #782
• US rank: #22472

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 116,477
• Population (ZIP): 12,164

Population outlook (Contra Costa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,287,720 people
• By 2030: 1,364,937 · +6.0%
• By 2040: 1,506,209 · +17.0%
• By 2050: 1,624,373 · +26.1%
• By 2075: 1,853,193 · +43.9%
• By 2100: 1,901,231 · +47.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Two or more races 13% Hispanic / Latino 13% Asian 11% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Scotch-Irish 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, China, Philippines
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Contra Costa

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+38.0) · D 67.3% · R 29.4% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.2pp no change · 2008: 37.8pp · 2024: 38.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+38.0 2020: D+45.3 2016: D+43.5 2012: D+33.7 2008: D+37.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -693.84%
• Current HPI: 144.7139
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Listed $189,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR

Property tax history

-0.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $571 · -0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.