7923 Santa Rosa Ave · Lynn Haven, FL 32409

$199,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · Manufactured public records · 116 Days on market

Built 2004 0.30 ac lot $160/sqft · 16% above area Est $171k · 16% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.7/30.0
• Appreciation +9.5/10.0
• DSCR +5.5/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.1/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

This beautifully renovated 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home is packed with upgrades and situated on a generous ¼ acre lot — offering comfort, space, and peace of mind. Inside, you'll find fresh luxury vinyl plank (LVP) flooring, new carpet and a bright, open layout perfect for everyday living. The kitchen is equipped with brand-new appliances, while both bathrooms have been updated to reflect modern tastes and convenience. Major upgrades include all-new PEX plumbing, new septic, new electrical wiring with a new sub panel, brand-new roof and front deck. Buyer to verify all measurements

Key facts

• New pex plumbing
• New carpet
• Open layout

Tags

• LUXURY VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• NEW CARPET
• OPEN LAYOUT
• BRAND-NEW APPLIANCES
• UPDATED BATHROOMS
• NEW PEX PLUMBING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $159 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $178k (10.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $178k (10.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 3.5% in Lynn Haven — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#96 in FL, #1,472 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D+, commute F.
• Bay (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #29 of 73 in FL (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 299 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,473 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (559 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $19k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $18k appreciation (9.1% local appreciation)).
• Bay County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (9.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 116 days — a 9% lower offer ($182k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $35k; list at $200k implies a 470% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $178,500 (10.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 116 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.25%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.42%
• DSCR: 1.15
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $171,328
• List price: $199,500
• Delta: 16.44%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

9.08% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.90×
• Total profit: $106,310
• Equity at exit: $166,512

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.1%
• Equity multiple: 6.41×
• Total profit: $302,391
• Equity at exit: $345,900

Cash invested: $55,860 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32409

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Active inventory: 299
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,785 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,046
• Tax from tax record: −$122 /mo · $1,461/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$375
• Net cashflow: $159

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,584

Max offer price $199,500

Occupancy floor 86%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,875
• Closing costs: $5,985
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1105 13th St Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,785	$1.32	21d	1	0.95mi

Listing history 35 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $199,500 Active 116 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,500 Active 115 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,500 Active 114 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,500 Active 113 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,500 Active 112 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $199,500 Active 110 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,500 Active 109 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $199,500 Active 107 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,500 Active 106 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $199,500 Active 105 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $199,500 Active 104 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $199,500 Active 101 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,500 Active 100 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,500 Active 99 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,500 Active 98 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,500 Active 97 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $199,500 Active 96 DOM
18. 2026-02-20
    listed $199,500 Active 598-char remark

    Show marketing remark (598 chars)

    This beautifully renovated 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home is packed with upgrades and situated on a generous ¼ acre lot — offering comfort, space, and peace of mind. Inside, you'll find fresh luxury vinyl plank (LVP) flooring, new carpet and a bright, open layout perfect for everyday living. The kitchen is equipped with brand-new appliances, while both bathrooms have been updated to reflect modern tastes and convenience. Major upgrades include all-new PEX plumbing, new septic, new electrical wiring with a new sub panel, brand-new roof and front deck. Buyer to verify all measurements

19. 2025-12-17
    historical
20. 2025-11-01
    price $196,500
21. 2025-09-07
    price $215,000
22. 2025-03-07
    listed $225,000 Active
23. 2023-01-10
    soldstatus $35,000
24. 2022-04-26
    soldstatus $40,000
25. 2021-12-14
    historical
26. 2021-12-09
    historical
27. 2018-10-10
    listed $150,000
28. 2016-10-31
    historical
29. 2014-01-30
    listed $99,900
30. 2012-10-04
    listed $99,900
31. 2005-02-09
    soldstatus $89,900
32. 2004-03-05
    listed $69,900
33. 2003-05-30
    soldstatus $126,000
34. 2003-02-21
    soldstatus $24,000
35. 2002-04-01
    soldstatus $95,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,461 · $122/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,656 · $138/mo
• Expected delta: +$194/yr (+$16/mo · 13.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 12% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,420
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,175
• − Property taxes: −$1,461
• − Insurance: −$998
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,714
• − Management: −$1,714
• − Depreciation: −$5,804
• Taxable loss: −$1,445
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$347
• After-tax cash flow: $2,255/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay
• NCES district ID: 1200090
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,740
• Composite: 43.41/100
• National rank: #3014
• State rank: #29 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lynn Haven

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #96
• US rank: #1472

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 21,459
• Population (ZIP): 10,941

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 206,264 people
• By 2030: 217,740 · +5.6%
• By 2040: 238,738 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 255,545 · +23.9%
• By 2075: 288,295 · +39.8%
• By 2100: 288,638 · +39.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 4% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 3% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Jamaica, South Korea
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.4) · D 25.8% · R 73.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.6pp toward R · 2008: -40.7pp · 2024: -47.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.4 2020: R+43.5 2016: R+46.3 2012: R+43.6 2008: R+40.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 9.08%
• Current HPI: 391.06
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+110.0% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-20 Listed $199,500 CPARMLS
• 2025-12-17 Listing Removed — CPARMLS
• 2025-11-01 Price Changed $196,500 CPARMLS
• 2025-09-07 Price Changed $215,000 CPARMLS
• 2025-03-07 Listed $225,000 CPARMLS
• 2023-01-10 Sold (Public Records) $35,000 Public Records
• 2022-04-26 Sold (Public Records) $40,000 Public Records
• 2021-12-14 Listing Removed — CPARMLS
• 2021-12-09 Listing Removed — CPARMLS
• 2018-10-10 Listed $150,000 CPARMLS
• 2016-10-31 Listing Removed — CPARMLS
• 2014-01-30 Listed $99,900 CPARMLS
• 2012-10-04 Listed $99,900 CPARMLS
• 2005-02-09 Sold (MLS) $89,900 CPARMLS
• 2004-03-05 Listed $69,900 CPARMLS
• 2003-05-30 Sold (Public Records) $126,000 Public Records
• 2003-02-21 Sold (Public Records) $24,000 Public Records
• 2002-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $95,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,461 · +36.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.