1502 Green Valley Ln · Granite Shoals, TX 78669

$365,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,490 sqft · Land · 331 Days on market

Built 2025 0.26 ac lot $245/sqft · 16% above area Est $314k · 16% over ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.4/30.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0
• ARV discount +0.2/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful new home on a double corner lot! Modern high ceilings, wood-like tile, white quartz countertops, split bedroom plan with 3 bedrooms, 2 baths and a 2-car garage. Kitchen boasts an island, farm kitchen sink, built-in microwave, dishwasher and stove/oven and refrigerator. The double car garage has an EV hookup. Built in lighting in every room. Lots of upgrades in this home - ready for you to move in! Several city parks with playgrounds, hiking trails, pickleball/tennis courts, soccer field plus close access to Lake LBJ for launching your boat, fishing and swimming. The local elementary school is close, the lake is calling your name and your new home is waiting for you!

Key facts

• Oak trees
• Double corner lot
• 0.26 acre lot

Tags

• DOUBLE CORNER LOT
• WHITE QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• OAK TREES
• CLOSE ACCESS TO LAKE LBJ
• LOCAL ELEMENTARY SCHOOL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $365k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-329 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $307k (15.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $286k (21.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $286k (21.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 1.1% in Granite Shoals — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#684 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Marble Falls ISD (town): math 32% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #511 of 826 in TX (top 62%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 649 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 891 units permitted in Burnet County in 2024 (76 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Burnet County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 331 days — a 12% lower offer ($321k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 60% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $286,008 (21.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 331 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.21%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.87%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $314,077
• List price: $365,000
• Delta: 16.21%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 15 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.36% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.23×
• Total profit: $-78,991
• Equity at exit: $54,423

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.11×
• Total profit: $-91,147
• Equity at exit: $31,559

Cash invested: $102,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78669

• Home prices YoY: -16.6%
• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 649
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,860 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,914
• Tax from tax record: −$523 /mo · $6,270/yr
• Insurance: −$152
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$601
• Net cashflow: $-329

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,277

Max offer price $306,840

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $91,250
• Closing costs: $10,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1202 N Mystic Dr Granite Shoals, TX	3.0	2.5	1404	$2,199	$1.57	13d	1	0.76mi
217 E Castleshoals Dr Granite Shoals, TX	3.0	2.0	1020	$1,350	$1.32	44d	1	1.33mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $365,000 Active 331 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $365,000 Active 330 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $365,000 Active 329 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $365,000 Active 328 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $365,000 Active 326 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $365,000 Active 325 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $365,000 Active 322 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $365,000 Active 321 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $365,000 Active 320 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $365,000 Active 317 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $365,000 Active 316 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $365,000 Active 314 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $365,000 Active 313 DOM
14. 2026-03-11
    price $365,000 684-char remark

    Show marketing remark (684 chars)

    Beautiful new home on a double corner lot! Modern high ceilings, wood-like tile, white quartz countertops, split bedroom plan with 3 bedrooms, 2 baths and a 2-car garage. Kitchen boasts an island, farm kitchen sink, built-in microwave, dishwasher and stove/oven and refrigerator. The double car garage has an EV hookup. Built in lighting in every room. Lots of upgrades in this home - ready for you to move in! Several city parks with playgrounds, hiking trails, pickleball/tennis courts, soccer field plus close access to Lake LBJ for launching your boat, fishing and swimming. The local elementary school is close, the lake is calling your name and your new home is waiting for you!

15. 2026-01-13
    price $375,000 684-char remark

    Show marketing remark (684 chars)

    Beautiful new home on a double corner lot! Modern high ceilings, wood-like tile, white quartz countertops, split bedroom plan with 3 bedrooms, 2 baths and a 2-car garage. Kitchen boasts an island, farm kitchen sink, built-in microwave, dishwasher and stove/oven and refrigerator. The double car garage has an EV hookup. Built in lighting in every room. Lots of upgrades in this home - ready for you to move in! Several city parks with playgrounds, hiking trails, pickleball/tennis courts, soccer field plus close access to Lake LBJ for launching your boat, fishing and swimming. The local elementary school is close, the lake is calling your name and your new home is waiting for you!

16. 2025-07-21
    listed $379,000 Active 684-char remark

    Show marketing remark (684 chars)

    Beautiful new home on a double corner lot! Modern high ceilings, wood-like tile, white quartz countertops, split bedroom plan with 3 bedrooms, 2 baths and a 2-car garage. Kitchen boasts an island, farm kitchen sink, built-in microwave, dishwasher and stove/oven and refrigerator. The double car garage has an EV hookup. Built in lighting in every room. Lots of upgrades in this home - ready for you to move in! Several city parks with playgrounds, hiking trails, pickleball/tennis courts, soccer field plus close access to Lake LBJ for launching your boat, fishing and swimming. The local elementary school is close, the lake is calling your name and your new home is waiting for you!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,270 · $523/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,680 · $557/mo
• Expected delta: +$409/yr (+$34/mo · 6.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 60% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,321
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,446
• − Property taxes: −$6,270
• − Insurance: −$1,825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,746
• − Management: −$2,746
• − Depreciation: −$10,618
• Taxable loss: −$10,329
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,479
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,472/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marble Falls ISD
• NCES district ID: 4829010
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,663
• Composite: 30.3/100
• National rank: #6278
• State rank: #511 of 826 in TX

Livability — Granite Shoals

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #684
• US rank: #12785

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Granite Shoals, TX
• County: Travis County · 1,299,254 people
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 12,592
• Household income: $128,000
• Rent vs Own: 7.9% rent · 92.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 45.0

Population outlook (Burnet County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 50,492 people
• By 2030: 52,995 · +5.0%
• By 2040: 57,528 · +13.9%
• By 2050: 61,444 · +21.7%
• By 2075: 71,098 · +40.8%
• By 2100: 74,634 · +47.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 8% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Burnet

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+55.7) · D 21.7% · R 77.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.6pp toward R · 2008: -44.1pp · 2024: -55.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+55.7 2020: R+53.1 2016: R+56.8 2012: R+54.6 2008: R+44.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -50.06%
• Current HPI: 251.3551
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.36%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-3.7% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-11 Price Changed $365,000 HLMLS as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2026-01-13 Price Changed $375,000 HLMLS as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2025-07-21 Listed $379,000 HLMLS as distributed by MLS GRID

Property tax history

+80.0%/yr

Latest (2026): $6,270 · +6133.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.