2408 Southern Dr · Gautier, MS 39553

$149,900

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,362 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 87 Days on market

Built 1969 0.30 ac lot Est $183k · 18% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.1/10.0
• 1% rule +6.5/10.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome home! USDA 100% Financing eligible. 4 bedrooms 1 bath home ready for it's new owner. Would be perfect for a first-time homebuyer or investor who's looking to add another one for their portfolio. Fresh interior and exterior paint, new luxury vinyl flooring throughout, new ceiling fans in all bedrooms and living room. New kitchen cabinets, granite countertop, backsplash, sink and faucet and stainless steel appliances. Beautifully updated bathroom with new tile surround, toilet, vanity, mirror and lights.

Key facts

• New kitchen cabinets
• Fresh interior paint
• Granite countertop

Tags

• FRESH INTERIOR PAINT
• FRESH EXTERIOR PAINT
• NEW LUXURY VINYL FLOORING
• NEW KITCHEN CABINETS
• GRANITE COUNTERTOP
• NEW BACKSPLASH

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Concrete parking surface
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Sewer connected; Water connected
• Home design: Single family residence; House; One story; Updated/remodeled
• Construction: Brick veneer construction; Slab foundation; Built (year source: public records)
• Exterior features: Shingle roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Exhaust fan; Free-standing electric range; Water heater
• Flooring: Luxury vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heating; Ceiling heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans; Electric cooling
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Granite counters; Dead bolt lock(s); Smoke detector(s)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $322 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $141k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.9% vs local median 4.2% in Gautier — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#89 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D+, schools D, employment D.
• Pascagoula-Gautier School District (urban): math 40% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #41 of 130 in MS (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 78% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 208 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 516 units permitted in Jackson County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 87 days — a 6% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $63k; list at $150k implies a 138% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $140,906 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 87 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.15% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.20%
• DSCR: 1.41
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $182,508
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2617 State St	0.21mi	4/2.0	1,328 (-2%)	4mo	$175,000	$132	79
2401 Oxford Dr	0.21mi	4/2.5	1,400 (+3%)	6mo	$182,500	$130	74
2205 University St	0.15mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,247 (-8%)	1mo	$100,000	$80	73
1908 University St	0.25mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,303 (-4%)	5mo	$179,500	$138	68
2628 San Lorenzo St	0.44mi	4/2.0	1,305 (-4%)	4mo	$175,000	$134	66
2112 Woodbury Rd	0.15mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,214 (-11%)	6mo	$119,000	$98	64
2643 El Viernes St	0.64mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,368 (+0%)	1mo	$169,000	$124	60
2019 Pamela Dr	0.41mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,248 (-8%)	6mo	$175,000	$140	57
2212 Lewis Gate Dr	0.68mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,360 (-0%)	6mo	$208,000	$153	54
2518 Avenida Encanto St	0.42mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,557 (+14%)	1mo	$120,000	$77	47
2718 Ridgeway Dr	0.68mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,256 (-8%)	6mo	$167,695	$134	45
1815 W Amar	0.62mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,492 (+10%)	3mo	$239,900	$161	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.91×
• Total profit: $-3,761
• Equity at exit: $22,351

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.55×
• Total profit: $23,231
• Equity at exit: $12,961

Cash invested: $41,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39553

• Home prices YoY: -17.0%
• Active inventory: 208
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,719 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$187 /mo · $2,248/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$361
• Net cashflow: $322

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,311

Max offer price $149,900

Occupancy floor 76%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $426	-5% $374	+0% $322	+5% $270	+10% $218
Rent	-10% $186	-5% $254	+0% $322	+5% $390	+10% $458
Rate	-1.0pp $397	-0.5pp $360	base $322	+0.5pp $283	+1.0pp $244

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,475
• Closing costs: $4,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3254 Stonegate Cir Gautier, MS	3.0	2.0	1472	$1,700	$1.15	14d	1	0.62mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-05-05
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-16
   price $149,900
3. 2026-03-27
   price $155,000
4. 2026-03-10
   price $159,900
5. 2026-02-24
   price $165,000
6. 2026-02-06
   listed $169,900 Active
7. 2025-11-24
   soldstatus $63,001

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (shaded) · 13% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,625
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,397
• − Property taxes: −$2,248
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,650
• − Management: −$1,650
• − Depreciation: −$4,361
• Taxable income: $1,570
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$377
• After-tax cash flow: $3,486/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pascagoula-Gautier School District
• NCES district ID: 2803480
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $41,392
• Composite: 32.86/100
• National rank: #5613
• State rank: #41 of 130 in MS

Livability — Gautier

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #89
• US rank: #11250

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Gautier, MS
• County: Jackson County · 82,196 people
• City population: 17,225
• Metro: Gulfport-Biloxi, MS
• Population (ZIP): 17,225
• Household income: $57,460
• Rent vs Own: 28.4% rent · 71.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 653.0

Population outlook (Jackson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 146,926 people
• By 2030: 148,442 · +1.0%
• By 2040: 149,631 · +1.8%
• By 2050: 148,723 · +1.2%
• By 2075: 147,845 · +0.6%
• By 2100: 144,510 · -1.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Black 28% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 7% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 8%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Lithuanian 3% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 8% Chinese 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Jackson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.9) · D 29.5% · R 69.4% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.4pp toward R · 2008: -33.5pp · 2024: -39.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.9 2020: R+34.6 2016: R+39.9 2012: R+36.1 2008: R+33.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -42.77%
• Current HPI: 209.1746
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Gulfport-Biloxi, MS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+137.9% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Pending — MLSU
• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $149,900 MLSU
• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $155,000 MLSU
• 2026-03-10 Price Changed $159,900 MLSU
• 2026-02-24 Price Changed $165,000 MLSU
• 2026-02-06 Listed $169,900 MLSU
• 2025-11-24 Sold (Public Records) $63,001 Public Records