Donley Plan · Sienna, TX 77459

$450,990

5 bd · 4.0 ba · 2,650 sqft · SingleFamily · 174 Days on market

Excellent condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.3/10.0
• Schools +5.6/10.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Appreciation +4.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Donley floor plan in the Portrait Series features 2,650 sqft, 5 bedrooms, 4 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage. This two-story floor plan offers an enlarged main shower option, 2 kitchen upgrade options, main bedroom bay options, fireplace options, family room vault options, and covered patio options.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 173 days

🏗️ New construction. The $450,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $490,311.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $451k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $591 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $451k).
• Recommended offer: $397k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 3.2% in Sienna — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Fort Bend ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #140 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Heritage Rose El (math 29% / reading 28%, grade F, #2,706 of 4,322 statewide, top 63%, 1,209 students, 83% FRL); Billy Baines Middle (math 47% / reading 53%, grade C, #347 of 1,662 statewide, top 21%, 1,296 students, 37% FRL); Ridge Point H S (math 61% / reading 69%, grade B, #198 of 1,632 statewide, top 12%, 3,170 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools average 50% FRL vs 35% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 1543 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 36d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $5,038/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($129k/yr) (locally 20% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.7%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 174 days — a 12% lower offer ($397k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $396,871 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 174 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.17%
• DSCR: 1.23
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $490,311
• List price: $450,990
• Delta: -8.02%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2010 Ironwood Pass Dr	0.01mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,529 (-5%)	2mo	$574,900	$227	82
2006 Ironwood Pass Dr	0.02mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,922 (+10%)	1mo	$600,878	$206	74
2326 Calm Channel Ct	0.36mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,526 (-5%)	0mo	$412,000	$163	68
8726 Windsong Trail Dr	0.22mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,517 (-5%)	6mo	$359,900	$143	67
9311 Crescent Mill Dr	0.48mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,577 (-3%)	1mo	$419,900	$163	63
1639 Rosedale Dr	0.43mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,763 (+4%)	6mo	$399,950	$145	59
8723 Arbor Trail Dr	0.26mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,381 (-10%)	4mo	$365,000	$153	58
1506 Country Air Ln	0.50mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,808 (+6%)	5mo	$425,000	$151	56
8711 Fairbrook Dr	0.38mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,413 (-9%)	8mo	$409,900	$170	54
1610 Country Air Ln	0.43mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,388 (-10%)	2mo	$369,900	$155	53
8831 Morning Glow Dr	0.47mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,388 (-10%)	1mo	$370,000	$155	51
9507 Shaded Tree Dr	0.55mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,935 (+11%)	6mo	$445,000	$152	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.67% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.79×
• Total profit: $-28,531
• Equity at exit: $102,832

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.94×
• Total profit: $-7,739
• Equity at exit: $95,248

Cash invested: $137,287 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 116 active · 18 under contract
• Months of supply: 36.6 mo (3%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $540,945 ($191/sqft)
• Median days on market: 99 d
• This list price: 24% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -3.2% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77459

• Home prices YoY: -0.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 1543
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,038 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,571
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$613 /mo · $7,355/yr
• Insurance: −$204
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,058
• Net cashflow: $591

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,289

Max offer price $490,311

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $930	-5% $761	+0% $591	+5% $422	+10% $253
Rent	-10% $193	-5% $392	+0% $591	+5% $790	+10% $989
Rate	-1.0pp $838	-0.5pp $716	base $591	+0.5pp $464	+1.0pp $335

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $122,578
• Closing costs: $14,709
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8719 Fox Trail Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.0	2143	$5,125	$2.39	0d	1	0.13mi
8719 Fox Trail Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.5	2143	$6,000	$2.80	71d	1	0.13mi
2142 Ironwood Pass Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.0	2140	$5,700	$2.66	3d	1	0.13mi
2142 Ironwood Pass Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.0	2140	$6,000	$2.80	25d	1	0.13mi
1618 Rosedale Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.5	2990	$3,400	$1.14	35d	1	0.46mi
2718 Van Gogh Ln Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.5	3036	$3,595	$1.18	59d	1	0.87mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-07-01
   days on market $450,990 Active 174 DOM
2. 2026-06-30
   days on market $450,990 Active 173 DOM
3. 2026-06-29
   days on market $450,990 Active 172 DOM
4. 2026-06-28
   days on market $450,990 Active 171 DOM
5. 2026-06-27
   days on market $450,990 Active 170 DOM
6. 2026-06-26
   days on market $450,990 Active 169 DOM
7. 2026-06-24
   days on market $450,990 Active 167 DOM
8. 2026-06-22
   days on market $450,990 Active 165 DOM
9. 2026-06-21
   days on market $450,990 Active 164 DOM
10. 2026-06-18
    days on market $450,990 Active 161 DOM
11. 2026-06-17
    days on market $450,990 Active 160 DOM
12. 2026-06-16
    days on market $450,990 Active 159 DOM
13. 2026-06-15
    days on market $450,990 Active 158 DOM
14. 2026-06-13
    days on market $450,990 Active 156 DOM
15. 2026-06-09
    days on market $450,990 Active 152 DOM
16. 2026-06-07
    days on market $450,990 Active 150 DOM
17. 2026-06-04
    days on market $450,990 Active 147 DOM
18. 2026-06-03
    days on market $450,990 Active 146 DOM
19. 2026-06-02
    days on market $450,990 Active 145 DOM
20. 2026-06-01
    days on market $450,990 Active 144 DOM
21. 2026-05-31
    days on market $450,990 Active 143 DOM
22. 2026-04-01
    price $450,990 301-char remark

    Show marketing remark (301 chars)

    The Donley floor plan in the Portrait Series features 2,650 sqft, 5 bedrooms, 4 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage. This two-story floor plan offers an enlarged main shower option, 2 kitchen upgrade options, main bedroom bay options, fireplace options, family room vault options, and covered patio options.

23. 2026-01-09
    listed $440,990 Active 301-char remark

    Show marketing remark (301 chars)

    The Donley floor plan in the Portrait Series features 2,650 sqft, 5 bedrooms, 4 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage. This two-story floor plan offers an enlarged main shower option, 2 kitchen upgrade options, main bedroom bay options, fireplace options, family room vault options, and covered patio options.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $60,453
• − Mortgage interest: −$27,465
• − Property taxes: −$7,355
• − Insurance: −$2,452
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,836
• − Management: −$4,836
• − Depreciation: −$14,264
• Taxable loss: −$754
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$181
• After-tax cash flow: $7,278/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 8 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It offers a great opportunity for an investor to make minor updates and improvements to enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants. ↑
• Resale Interior updates (paint, minor repairs) — Fresh paint and minor repairs can make the interior more appealing to potential buyers. ↑
• Both Kitchen and bathroom upgrades — Upgrades can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more modern and desirable. ↑

D Composite school gradezoned avg 56/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Alyssa Ferguson El Middle Ronald Thornton Middle D+ TX #462/1,662 Nat'l #4,433/14,009 High Ridge Point H S B TX #198/1,632 Nat'l #2,785/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fort Bend ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819650
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $82,360
• Composite: 44.61/100
• National rank: #2779
• State rank: #140 of 826 in TX

Livability — Sienna

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sienna, TX
• County: Fort Bend County · 1,004,526 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 84,221
• Household income: $129,151
• Rent vs Own: 14.8% rent · 85.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 20% of renters

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Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.75)
• Race & ethnicity: White 34% Black 26% Asian 22% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 8% Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 5%

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Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.67%
• Current HPI: 212.3573
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.15%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+2.3% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-01 Price Changed $450,990 Zillow
• 2026-01-09 Listed $440,990 Zillow