131 Lancer Dr · Elephant Butte, NM 87935

$89,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 672 sqft · Manufactured · 14 Days on market

Built 1965 Fair condition 4,680 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.1/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.1/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.4/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

All you need is the boat at this cute lake house. 3 bedroom 1.5 bath fully furnished mobile home on a double lot. Property offer full RV hook up, hot tub and beautiful views of the mountain and sunsets. Home offers 3 bedroom 1.5 baths, washer, dryer, fully furnished turn key lake home. Just minutes from Marina Del Sur and Sierra Del Rio Golf course. Enjoy the lake all summer and the Hot Mineral Baths in Downtown T or C all winter.

Key facts

• 4,680 sq ft lot
• Built 1965
• Listed 14 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage; RV access/parking
• Utilities: Public water; Sewer connected; Electricity connected; Natural gas connected; Natural gas available
• Home design: Manufactured house (single-wide); Residential property
• Construction: Elastomeric roof
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Chain-link fenced yard; Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Free-standing range; Dishwasher
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Has heating; Electric cooling
• Interior features: Drapes; RV hookup
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Electric and gas water heaters

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath manufactured listed at $90k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $311 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $90k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#54 in NM) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• T Or C Municipal Schools (town): math 25% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #29 of 29 in NM (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Hot Springs High (361 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 70% district-wide (30 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 104 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sierra County population projected at -38% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 5→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $89,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.31% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.82%
• DSCR: 1.66
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.21×
• Total profit: $5,246
• Equity at exit: $13,404

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.20×
• Total profit: $30,130
• Equity at exit: $7,773

Cash invested: $25,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Mexico: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice but with cure rights; relocation assistance in some cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 87935

• Home prices YoY: -6.1%
• Active inventory: 104
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,180 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$471
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$112 /mo · $1,348/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$248
• Net cashflow: $311

Break-even live

Break-even rent $786

Max offer price $89,900

Occupancy floor 69%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,475
• Closing costs: $2,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-04-24
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-10
   listed $89,900 Active
3. 2020-09-22
   soldstatus 434-char remark

   Show marketing remark (434 chars)

   All you need is the boat at this cute lake house. 3 bedroom 1.5 bath fully furnished mobile home on a double lot. Property offer full RV hook up, hot tub and beautiful views of the mountain and sunsets. Home offers 3 bedroom 1.5 baths, washer, dryer, fully furnished turn key lake home. Just minutes from Marina Del Sur and Sierra Del Rio Golf course. Enjoy the lake all summer and the Hot Mineral Baths in Downtown T or C all winter.

4. 2020-09-01
   listed $49,500 434-char remark

   Show marketing remark (434 chars)

   All you need is the boat at this cute lake house. 3 bedroom 1.5 bath fully furnished mobile home on a double lot. Property offer full RV hook up, hot tub and beautiful views of the mountain and sunsets. Home offers 3 bedroom 1.5 baths, washer, dryer, fully furnished turn key lake home. Just minutes from Marina Del Sur and Sierra Del Rio Golf course. Enjoy the lake all summer and the Hot Mineral Baths in Downtown T or C all winter.

5. 2020-05-20
   soldstatus 371-char remark

   Show marketing remark (371 chars)

   LOOKING FOR A CUTE PROPERTY AT THE LAKE TO COME BACK TO AFTER A LONG DAY AT THE LAKE??? MUST SEE THIS SMALLER, OLDER 12 X 60 MFG HOME IN EXCELLENT CONDITION! THERE ARE 3 BEDROOMS, 2 BATHS, ALL APPLIANCES REMAIN INCLUDING A STACKED WASHER/DRYER. LOT IS COMPLETELY FENCED WITH TWO DRIVE THROUGH GATES - 60 X 65 - PLENTY OF ROOM FOR SEVERAL TOYS! DRIVE BY AND CALL TO SEE.

6. 2020-04-21
   listed $49,500 371-char remark

   Show marketing remark (371 chars)

   LOOKING FOR A CUTE PROPERTY AT THE LAKE TO COME BACK TO AFTER A LONG DAY AT THE LAKE??? MUST SEE THIS SMALLER, OLDER 12 X 60 MFG HOME IN EXCELLENT CONDITION! THERE ARE 3 BEDROOMS, 2 BATHS, ALL APPLIANCES REMAIN INCLUDING A STACKED WASHER/DRYER. LOT IS COMPLETELY FENCED WITH TWO DRIVE THROUGH GATES - 60 X 65 - PLENTY OF ROOM FOR SEVERAL TOYS! DRIVE BY AND CALL TO SEE.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 5 d/yr ≥99°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,158
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,036
• − Property taxes: −$1,348
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,133
• − Management: −$1,133
• − Depreciation: −$2,615
• Taxable income: $2,444
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$587
• After-tax cash flow: $3,143/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Cosmetic rehab

This manufactured home is in fair condition with cosmetic repairs needed. It offers a move-in ready living space with potential for significant value increase through exterior and interior updates.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Kitchen cabinets — Worn appearance
• Minor Bathtub and sink — Need cleaning
• Minor Exterior siding — Weathered appearance
• Minor Flooring — Worn appearance
• Minor Paint — Chipped in some areas
• Minor Window frames — Worn appearance

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal
• Resale Replace flooring — Improves living space
• Resale Paint interior walls — Enhances interior appearance
• Resale Replace window frames — Improves natural light and appearance
• Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and property value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Kitchen cabinets · Worn appearance	Minor	$500–3,000
Bathtub and sink · Need cleaning	Minor	$500–3,000
Exterior siding · Weathered appearance	Minor	$500–3,000
Flooring · Worn appearance	Minor	$500–3,000
Paint · Chipped in some areas	Minor	$500–3,000
Window frames · Worn appearance	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 6 items		$3,000–18,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal ↑
• Resale Replace flooring — Improves living space ↑
• Resale Paint interior walls — Enhances interior appearance ↑
• Resale Replace window frames — Improves natural light and appearance ↑
• Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and property value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: T Or C Municipal Schools
• NCES district ID: 3502610
• Math proficiency: 25% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $28,449
• Composite: 20.0/100
• National rank: #8666
• State rank: #29 of 29 in NM

Livability — Elephant Butte

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #54
• US rank: #13228

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Elephant Butte, NM
• Population (ZIP): 1,848

Population outlook (Sierra County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 9,498 people
• By 2030: 8,580 · -9.7%
• By 2040: 6,994 · -26.4%
• By 2050: 5,914 · -37.7%
• By 2075: 4,083 · -57.0%
• By 2100: 2,499 · -73.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 13%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Portuguese 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 2%
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 10% Tagalog/Filipino 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sierra

• 2024 margin: R (+19.2) · D 39.2% · R 58.3% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.1pp toward R · 2008: -12.1pp · 2024: -19.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.2 2020: R+21.5 2016: R+27.2 2012: R+18.9 2008: R+12.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -9.28%
• Current HPI: 143.564
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+81.6% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Pending — NMMLS
• 2026-04-10 Listed $89,900 NMMLS
• 2020-09-22 Sold (MLS) — NMMLS
• 2020-09-01 Listed $49,500 NMMLS
• 2020-05-20 Sold (MLS) — NMMLS
• 2020-04-21 Listed $49,500 NMMLS