4260 Lindsey Ln Unit B · Orange Beach, AL 36561

$304,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,126 sqft · Condo · 289 Days on market

Built 2002 Good condition Est $313k · at est. $473/mo HOA · 18% of rent ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +8.7/15.0
• Cash flow +6.7/30.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +0.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to your coastal retreat in the heart of Orange Beach! This 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom villa offers 1,126 sq. ft. of comfortable living space and the perfect blend of convenience, charm, and amenities. Orange Beach Villas features a community pool, stocked fishing pond, and shared charcoal grills for easy outdoor living. Pet-friendly and versatile, the community is ideal for full-time residents, second homes, or vacation rentals. Just 5 minutes from The Wharf and 15 minutes from white-sandy beaches along the Gulf Coast, this villa puts shopping, dining, and coastal fun right at your fingertips! Buyer to verify all information during due diligence.

Key facts

• Coastal retreat
• Community pool
• Stocked fishing pond

Tags

• COASTAL RETREAT
• COMMUNITY POOL
• STOCKED FISHING POND
• SHARED CHARCOAL GRILLS
• PET FRIENDLY
• 5 MINUTES FROM THE WHARF

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $305k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-490 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $234k (23.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $265k (13.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $234k (23.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.4% vs local median 0.2% in Orange Beach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#17 in AL, #3,891 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities C-, commute F.
• Zoned schools: Orange Beach Elementary School (math 63% / reading 80%); Orange Beach Middlehigh School (631 students, 24% FRL).
• Market conditions: 89 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,883 units permitted in Baldwin County in 2024 (481 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($98k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Baldwin County population projected at +42% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 289 days — a 12% lower offer ($268k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $234,081 (23.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 289 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.36%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.89%
• DSCR: 0.69
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $313,028
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4351 Lindsey Ln Unit 4351 B	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,125 (-0%)	13mo	$312,500	$278	85

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -28.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.06×
• Total profit: $-80,307
• Equity at exit: $45,476

10-year hold

• IRR: -26.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.27×
• Total profit: $-108,781
• Equity at exit: $26,371

Cash invested: $85,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 36561

• Active inventory: 89
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,646 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,599
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$381 /mo · $4,575/yr
• Insurance: −$127
• HOA: −$473
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$556
• Net cashflow: $-490

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,267

Max offer price $234,081

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-279	-5% $-385	+0% $-490	+5% $-595	+10% $-701
Rent	-10% $-699	-5% $-595	+0% $-490	+5% $-386	+10% $-281
Rate	-1.0pp $-337	-0.5pp $-413	base $-490	+0.5pp $-569	+1.0pp $-650

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $76,250
• Closing costs: $9,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
23957 Village Cut Dr Orange Beach, AL	3.0	2.5	1320	$2,800	$2.12	22d	1	0.44mi
24802 Gulf Stream Cir Orange Beach, AL	3.0	2.5	1437	$1,949	$1.36	15d	4	0.58mi
4144 Lost Bay Dr Orange Beach, AL	3.0	2.5	1437	$2,250	$1.57	45d	1	0.83mi
25624 W Perdido Ave Orange Beach, AL	2.0	2.0	1170	$1,580	$1.35	15d	3	1.45mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $473 · $5,676/yr
• Likely covers: pool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $304,999 Active 289 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $304,999 Active 287 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $304,999 Active 286 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $304,999 Active 285 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $304,999 Active 284 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $304,999 Active 283 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   pricedays on market $304,999 Active 281 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $314,900 Active 280 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $314,900 Active 278 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $314,900 Active 277 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $314,900 Active 276 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $314,900 Active 275 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $314,900 Active 271 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $314,900 Active 270 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $314,900 Active 269 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $314,900 Active 268 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $314,900 Active 267 DOM
18. 2026-04-04
    price $314,900 658-char remark

    Show marketing remark (658 chars)

    Welcome to your coastal retreat in the heart of Orange Beach! This 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom villa offers 1,126 sq. ft. of comfortable living space and the perfect blend of convenience, charm, and amenities. Orange Beach Villas features a community pool, stocked fishing pond, and shared charcoal grills for easy outdoor living. Pet-friendly and versatile, the community is ideal for full-time residents, second homes, or vacation rentals. Just 5 minutes from The Wharf and 15 minutes from white-sandy beaches along the Gulf Coast, this villa puts shopping, dining, and coastal fun right at your fingertips! Buyer to verify all information during due diligence.

19. 2025-09-05
    listed $320,000 Active 658-char remark

    Show marketing remark (658 chars)

    Welcome to your coastal retreat in the heart of Orange Beach! This 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom villa offers 1,126 sq. ft. of comfortable living space and the perfect blend of convenience, charm, and amenities. Orange Beach Villas features a community pool, stocked fishing pond, and shared charcoal grills for easy outdoor living. Pet-friendly and versatile, the community is ideal for full-time residents, second homes, or vacation rentals. Just 5 minutes from The Wharf and 15 minutes from white-sandy beaches along the Gulf Coast, this villa puts shopping, dining, and coastal fun right at your fingertips! Buyer to verify all information during due diligence.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,757
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,085
• − Property taxes: −$4,575
• − Insurance: −$1,525
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,541
• − Management: −$2,541
• − HOA: −$5,676
• − Depreciation: −$8,873
• Taxable loss: −$11,057
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,654
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,227/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom villa in Orange Beach is in good condition with a fresh paint job and well-maintained landscaping. It offers a great blend of comfort and community amenities.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Clean pool and gazebo — Maintains community appeal and functionality

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Clean pool and gazebo — Maintains community appeal and functionality ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — Orange Beach

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #17
• US rank: #3891

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living F Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Orange Beach, AL
• County: Baldwin County · 181,514 people
• City population: 9,528
• Metro: Daphne-Fairhope-Foley, AL
• Population (ZIP): 9,528
• Household income: $98,295
• Rent vs Own: 29.9% rent · 70.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 179.0

Population outlook (Baldwin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 248,264 people
• By 2030: 270,315 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 312,967 · +26.1%
• By 2050: 352,262 · +41.9%
• By 2075: 438,841 · +76.8%
• By 2100: 487,736 · +96.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 4% Black 4% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 4% Russian 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Other Indo-European 1% Spanish 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Baldwin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.2) · D 20.5% · R 78.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.7pp toward R · 2008: -51.5pp · 2024: -58.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.2 2020: R+53.8 2016: R+57.8 2012: R+55.8 2008: R+51.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -219.50%
• Current HPI: 270.8382
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Daphne-Fairhope-Foley, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

-1.6% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-04 Price Changed $314,900 BCAR
• 2025-09-05 Listed $320,000 BCAR