10995 Independence Rd · Cleveland, TX 77328

$317,990

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,542 sqft · Land · 29 Days on market

Built 2026 0.34 ac lot $125/sqft · 6% above area Est $300k · 6% over ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.3/30.0
• ARV discount +4.7/15.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to Liberty Estates, a community with new construction homes conveniently located just minutes from I-69 in Cleveland, Texas. Embrace the freedom of living on an oversized homesite, perfect for creating your dream backyard oasis. Enjoy a short commute to major employment hubs in Kingwood, The Woodlands, and Downtown, while taking advantage of the enticingly low tax rates in this new community!

Key facts

• Oversized homesite
• Short commute
• Low tax rates

Tags

• NEW CONSTRUCTION HOMES
• OVERSIZED HOMESITE
• SHORT COMMUTE
• LOW TAX RATES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath land listed at $318k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-116 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $297k (6.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $222k (30.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $222k (30.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 4.6% in Cleveland — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#1,013 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Splendora ISD (rural): math 25% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #648 of 826 in TX (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Greenleaf El (math 28% / reading 25%, grade F, #2,927 of 4,322 statewide, top 68%, 797 students, 70% FRL); Splendora J H (math 28% / reading 42%, grade F, #842 of 1,662 statewide, top 51%, 774 students, 62% FRL); Splendora H S (math 18% / reading 38%, grade F, #1,170 of 1,632 statewide, top 72%, 1,344 students, 59% FRL).
• Market conditions: 339 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($313k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $221,577 (30.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.85%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.57%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 12.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $299,631
• List price: $317,990
• Delta: 6.13%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-59,110
• Equity at exit: $47,413

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-61,705
• Equity at exit: $27,494

Cash invested: $89,037 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77328

• Home prices YoY: -7.7%
• Active inventory: 339
• Price-to-rent: 12.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,216 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,668
• Tax from tax record: −$67 /mo · $801/yr
• Insurance: −$132
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$465
• Net cashflow: $-116

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,363

Max offer price $297,432

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $64	-5% $-26	+0% $-116	+5% $-206	+10% $-296
Rent	-10% $-291	-5% $-204	+0% $-116	+5% $-29	+10% $59
Rate	-1.0pp $44	-0.5pp $-35	base $-116	+0.5pp $-199	+1.0pp $-283

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $79,498
• Closing costs: $9,540
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10659 Lost Maples Dr Cleveland, TX	4.0	2.5	2171	$1,695	$0.78	24d	1	0.73mi
25507 Greenwood Canyon Dr Cleveland, TX	3.0–5.0	2.0–3.5	1950	$2,765	$1.42	0d	1	0.76mi
10487 Red Cardinal Dr Cleveland, TX	4.0	2.5	2171	$1,695	$0.78	24d	1	1.02mi
10457 Sweetwater Creek Dr Cleveland, TX	4.0	2.5	2171	$1,695	$0.78	26d	1	1.05mi
10422 Sweetwater Creek Dr Cleveland, TX	4.0	2.5	2171	$1,695	$0.78	0d	1	1.12mi
10410 Sweetwater Creek Dr Cleveland, TX	4.0	2.5	2171	$1,695	$0.78	26d	1	1.14mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-08
   status Pending 403-char remark

   Show marketing remark (403 chars)

   Welcome to Liberty Estates, a community with new construction homes conveniently located just minutes from I-69 in Cleveland, Texas. Embrace the freedom of living on an oversized homesite, perfect for creating your dream backyard oasis. Enjoy a short commute to major employment hubs in Kingwood, The Woodlands, and Downtown, while taking advantage of the enticingly low tax rates in this new community!

2. 2026-04-17
   price $317,990 403-char remark

   Show marketing remark (403 chars)

   Welcome to Liberty Estates, a community with new construction homes conveniently located just minutes from I-69 in Cleveland, Texas. Embrace the freedom of living on an oversized homesite, perfect for creating your dream backyard oasis. Enjoy a short commute to major employment hubs in Kingwood, The Woodlands, and Downtown, while taking advantage of the enticingly low tax rates in this new community!

3. 2026-04-09
   listed $339,990 Active 403-char remark

   Show marketing remark (403 chars)

   Welcome to Liberty Estates, a community with new construction homes conveniently located just minutes from I-69 in Cleveland, Texas. Embrace the freedom of living on an oversized homesite, perfect for creating your dream backyard oasis. Enjoy a short commute to major employment hubs in Kingwood, The Woodlands, and Downtown, while taking advantage of the enticingly low tax rates in this new community!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $801 · $67/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,819 · $485/mo
• Expected delta: +$5,018/yr (+$418/mo · 626.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,589
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,812
• − Property taxes: −$801
• − Insurance: −$1,590
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,127
• − Management: −$2,127
• − Depreciation: −$9,251
• Taxable loss: −$7,119
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,709
• After-tax cash flow: $312/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Splendora ISD
• NCES district ID: 4841070
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $54,166
• Composite: 24.92/100
• National rank: #7572
• State rank: #648 of 826 in TX

Livability — Cleveland

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #1013
• US rank: #17943

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: San Jacinto County · 17,208 people
• City population: 17,208
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 17,208
• Household income: $62,428
• Rent vs Own: 20.5% rent · 79.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 58.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (61%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 14% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 3% Serbian 3%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 31% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -22.82%
• Current HPI: 273.6604
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-6.5% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $317,990 HARMLS
• 2026-04-09 Listed $339,990 HARMLS