Barlow Plan · New Braunfels, TX 78130

$271,299

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,173 sqft · SingleFamily · 310 Days on market

Good condition ↓ 15% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.8/30.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0
• DSCR +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This new two-story home is host to an open-concept floorplan on the first level combining the kitchen, dining area and family room for effortless entertaining and multitasking. A versatile game room is located upstairs near four bedrooms, including the luxe owner's suite with a spa-inspired bathroom and generous walk-in closet.

Key facts

• Luxe owner's suite
• Walk-in closet
• Game room

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOORPLAN
• GAME ROOM
• LUXE OWNER'S SUITE
• SPA-INSPIRED BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET

🏗️ New construction. The $271,299 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $311,476.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $271k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-485 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $241k (11.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $211k (22.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $211k (22.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.4% vs local median 3.3% in New Braunfels — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#9 in TX, #925 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute F.
• New Braunfels ISD (urban): math 47% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #157 of 826 in TX (top 19%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Walnut Springs El (math 42% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,335 of 4,322 statewide, top 33%, 312 students, 45% FRL); New Braunfels Middle (math 44% / reading 46%, grade D, #479 of 1,662 statewide, top 29%, 1,301 students, 44% FRL); New Braunfels H S (math 53% / reading 10%, grade F, #1,073 of 1,632 statewide, top 66%, 1,926 students, 32% FRL) — zoned schools at 41% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.0%/yr); 2782 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 76d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 72% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 3,420 units permitted in Comal County in 2024 (1,164 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($83k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Comal County population projected at +70% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 310 days — a 12% lower offer ($239k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $211,056 (22.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 310 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.42%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.68%
• DSCR: 0.70
• GRM: 12.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $311,476
• List price: $271,299
• Delta: -12.90%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1913 Black Stork	0.34mi	4/3.0	2,174 (0%)	0mo	$320,999	$148	82
1914 Black Stork	0.31mi	4/3.0	2,142 (-1%)	1mo	$286,999	$134	81
1940 Bonelli Eagle	0.37mi	4/3.0	2,174 (0%)	2mo	$319,999	$147	79
1918 Black Stork	0.31mi	4/3.0	2,302 (+6%)	1mo	$326,999	$142	73
1927 Bonelli Eagle	0.40mi	4/3.0	2,302 (+6%)	1mo	$289,999	$126	69
1937 Black Stork	0.33mi	4/2.0	2,000 (-8%)	2mo	$273,999	$137	68
1916 Bonelli Eagle	0.36mi	4/3.0	2,349 (+8%)	0mo	$326,999	$139	67
1931 Bonelli Eagle	0.38mi	4/2.0	2,000 (-8%)	1mo	$267,999	$134	66
2314 Broken Wheel Ln	0.70mi	4/2.0	2,079 (-4%)	1mo	$299,000	$144	57
1906 Reserve	0.50mi	4/2.5	2,428 (+12%)	1mo	$519,000	$214	56
911 Highland Vis	0.58mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,001 (-8%)	1mo	$333,000	$166	54
2981 Aurora	0.69mi	4/2.5	2,400 (+10%)	2mo	$411,000	$171	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -31.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.00×
• Total profit: $-87,528
• Equity at exit: $46,442

10-year hold

• IRR: -55.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.60×
• Total profit: $-139,784
• Equity at exit: $26,931

Cash invested: $87,213 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 84 active · 57 under contract
• Months of supply: 6.6 mo (15%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $335,000 ($159/sqft)
• Median days on market: 129 d
• This list price: 8% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -9.8% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 78130

• Rents YoY: -2.0%
• Active inventory: 2782
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,111 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,633
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$389 /mo · $4,672/yr
• Insurance: −$130
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$443
• Net cashflow: $-485

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,725

Max offer price $241,267

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-270	-5% $-378	+0% $-485	+5% $-593	+10% $-700
Rent	-10% $-652	-5% $-569	+0% $-485	+5% $-402	+10% $-318
Rate	-1.0pp $-328	-0.5pp $-406	base $-485	+0.5pp $-566	+1.0pp $-648

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $77,869
• Closing costs: $9,344
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2923 Daisy Mdw New Braunfels, TX	4.0	3.0	2387	$2,170	$0.91	84d	1	0.38mi
1920 Bonelli Eagle New Braunfels, TX	4.0	3.0	2142	$1,995	$0.93	29d	1	0.40mi
2126 Jasons West Ct New Braunfels, TX	4.0	3.5	2431	$2,199	$0.90	117d	1	0.40mi
2018 Reserve Way New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.0	2023	$2,795	$1.38	112d	1	0.41mi
1666 Lantana Cir New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1502	$1,745	$1.16	139d	1	0.47mi
1663 Lantana Cir New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1536	$1,695	$1.10	76d	1	0.48mi
2207 Allison Dr New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.0	1850	$1,745	$0.94	108d	1	0.52mi
2967 Nicholas Cv New Braunfels, TX	5.0	3.0	2606	$2,225	$0.85	24d	1	0.55mi
2960 Nicholas Cv New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	2000	$2,000	$1.00	73d	1	0.56mi
1713 Sunspur Rd New Braunfels, TX	4.0	3.0	2323	$2,000	$0.86	85d	1	0.60mi
1623 Anna Lee New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1810	$2,000	$1.10	29d	1	0.61mi
1769 Lower Forty New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1653	$1,800	$1.09	43d	1	0.62mi
1769 Lower Forty New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1650	$1,800	$1.09	10d	1	0.62mi
1818 Strawberry Fld New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.5	2065	$1,995	$0.97	29d	1	0.62mi
1938 Spotted Owl New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.0	2017	$1,995	$0.99	43d	1	0.62mi
1970 Kalli Jo Ln New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1552	$1,800	$1.16	10d	1	0.63mi
1911 Kallijo Ln New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1552	$1,800	$1.16	112d	1	0.63mi
1130 Wigeon Way New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.0	2611	$2,600	$1.00	43d	1	0.64mi
1209 Ruddy Duck New Braunfels, TX	4.0	3.0	2708	$2,295	$0.85	10d	1	0.66mi
1209 Ruddy Duck New Braunfels, TX	4.0	3.0	2708	$2,495	$0.92	97d	1	0.66mi
1611 Sunnycrest Cir New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1779	$1,995	$1.12	100d	1	0.67mi
447 S Water Ln New Braunfels, TX	4.0	3.0	2913	$550	$0.19	81d	1	0.69mi
1951 Barn Swallow New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1560	$1,800	$1.15	29d	1	0.70mi
3129 Morlanga St New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.5	2407	$2,295	$0.95	56d	1	0.71mi
3129 Morlanga St New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.5	2407	$1,995	$0.83	67d	1	0.71mi
1128 Pelican Pl New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.0	1867	$2,100	$1.12	72d	1	0.73mi
1972 Bluethroat New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1560	$1,795	$1.15	139d	1	0.74mi
1428 Devin Dr New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1724	$1,795	$1.04	10d	1	0.74mi
3161 Birch Bnd New Braunfels, TX	4.0	3.0	2622	$2,325	$0.89	56d	1	0.77mi
3161 Birch Bnd New Braunfels, TX	4.0	3.0	2622	$2,500	$0.95	97d	1	0.77mi
1233 Hollyhock Ln New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1714	$1,700	$0.99	24d	1	0.77mi
1233 Hollyhock Ln New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1714	$1,800	$1.05	58d	1	0.77mi
1973 Bluethroat New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1458	$1,750	$1.20	112d	1	0.77mi
1810 Logan Trl New Braunfels, TX	4.0	3.5	2537	$2,300	$0.91	84d	1	0.79mi
3127 Pinecone Cv New Braunfels, TX	4.0	3.5	2679	$2,100	$0.78	0d	1	0.79mi
772 Vista Pkwy New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.0	1536	$1,750	$1.14	119d	1	0.80mi
1908 Tanger Ter New Braunfels, TX	3.0	3.0	1762	$1,900	$1.08	108d	1	0.80mi
1908 Tanger Ter New Braunfels, TX	3.0	3.0	1762	$1,900	$1.08	110d	1	0.80mi
1908 Tanger Ter New Braunfels, TX	3.0	3.0	1762	$1,900	$1.08	119d	1	0.80mi
410 S Water Ln New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.0	1963	$1,900	$0.97	139d	1	0.81mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-07-26
   days on market $271,299 Active 310 DOM
2. 2026-07-24
   days on market $271,299 Active 308 DOM
3. 2026-07-23
   days on market $271,299 Active 307 DOM
4. 2026-07-22
   days on market $271,299 Active 306 DOM
5. 2026-07-21
   pricedays on market $271,299 Active 305 DOM
6. 2026-07-20
   days on market $270,999 Active 304 DOM
7. 2026-07-18
   pricedays on market $270,999 Active 302 DOM
8. 2026-07-18
   pricedays on market $269,999 Active 301 DOM
9. 2026-07-16
   days on market $266,999 Active 300 DOM
10. 2026-07-15
    days on market $266,999 Active 299 DOM
11. 2026-07-14
    days on market $266,999 Active 298 DOM
12. 2026-07-13
    days on market $266,999 Active 297 DOM
13. 2026-07-13
    days on market $266,999 Active 296 DOM
14. 2026-07-11
    days on market $266,999 Active 295 DOM
15. 2026-07-10
    days on market $266,999 Active 294 DOM
16. 2026-07-10
    days on market $266,999 Active 293 DOM
17. 2026-07-07
    days on market $266,999 Active 291 DOM
18. 2026-07-06
    days on market $266,999 Active 290 DOM
19. 2026-07-05
    pricedays on market $266,999 Active 289 DOM
20. 2026-07-03
    days on market $264,999 Active 287 DOM
21. 2026-07-02
    price $264,999 Active 286 DOM
22. 2026-07-02
    pricedays on market $261,499 Active 286 DOM
23. 2026-07-01
    days on market $260,999 Active 285 DOM
24. 2026-06-30
    price $260,999 Active 284 DOM
25. 2026-06-30
    days on market $260,499 Active 284 DOM
26. 2026-06-29
    price $260,499 Active 283 DOM
27. 2026-06-29
    days on market $259,999 Active 283 DOM
28. 2026-06-28
    days on market $259,999 Active 282 DOM
29. 2026-06-27
    pricedays on market $259,999 Active 281 DOM
30. 2026-06-26
    days on market $258,999 Active 280 DOM
31. 2026-06-24
    days on market $258,999 Active 278 DOM
32. 2026-06-22
    days on market $258,999 Active 276 DOM
33. 2026-06-22
    price $258,999 Active 275 DOM
34. 2026-06-21
    days on market $258,499 Active 275 DOM
35. 2026-06-18
    days on market $258,499 Active 272 DOM
36. 2026-06-17
    days on market $258,499 Active 271 DOM
37. 2026-06-16
    days on market $258,499 Active 270 DOM
38. 2026-06-15
    days on market $258,499 Active 269 DOM
39. 2026-06-13
    pricedays on market $258,499 Active 267 DOM
40. 2026-06-09
    days on market $257,499 Active 263 DOM
41. 2026-06-08
    days on market $257,499 Active 262 DOM
42. 2026-06-08
    price $257,499 Active 261 DOM
43. 2026-06-07
    days on market $256,999 Active 261 DOM
44. 2026-06-04
    days on market $256,999 Active 258 DOM
45. 2026-06-03
    days on market $256,999 Active 257 DOM
46. 2026-06-02
    days on market $256,999 Active 256 DOM
47. 2026-06-02
    days on market $256,999 Active 255 DOM
48. 2026-05-31
    days on market $256,999 Active 254 DOM
49. 2026-04-17
    price $258,999 329-char remark

    Show marketing remark (329 chars)

    This new two-story home is host to an open-concept floorplan on the first level combining the kitchen, dining area and family room for effortless entertaining and multitasking. A versatile game room is located upstairs near four bedrooms, including the luxe owner's suite with a spa-inspired bathroom and generous walk-in closet.

50. 2025-09-19
    listed $303,999 Active 329-char remark

    Show marketing remark (329 chars)

    This new two-story home is host to an open-concept floorplan on the first level combining the kitchen, dining area and family room for effortless entertaining and multitasking. A versatile game room is located upstairs near four bedrooms, including the luxe owner's suite with a spa-inspired bathroom and generous walk-in closet.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,327
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,447
• − Property taxes: −$4,672
• − Insurance: −$1,557
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,026
• − Management: −$2,026
• − Depreciation: −$9,061
• Taxable loss: −$11,464
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,751
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,071/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This new two-story home is in excellent condition with a modern open-concept floorplan and neutral decor. It is move-in ready and has the potential for further value increases with minor updates.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Landscaping the front yard — Improves curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Enhances convenience and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 44/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Walnut Springs El F TX #1,335/4,322 Nat'l #17,861/41,679 Middle New Braunfels Middle D TX #479/1,662 Nat'l #4,622/14,009 High New Braunfels H S Ninth Grade Center F TX #697/1,632 Nat'l #7,320/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: New Braunfels ISD
• NCES district ID: 4832370
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $60,945
• Composite: 43.81/100
• National rank: #2931
• State rank: #157 of 826 in TX

A Composite livability gradescore 83/100

Livability — New Braunfels

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #9
• US rank: #925

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute F Cost of living A Crime A- Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: New Braunfels, TX
• County: Comal County · 175,637 people
• City population: 42,159
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 104,009
• Household income: $83,064
• Rent vs Own: 34.1% rent · 65.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 10% of renters

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Population outlook (Comal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 175,637 people
• By 2030: 199,911 · +13.8%
• By 2040: 249,436 · +42.0%
• By 2050: 299,430 · +70.5%
• By 2075: 423,857 · +141.3%
• By 2100: 512,048 · +191.5%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (58%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Hispanic / Latino 37% Two or more races 19% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 32%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 20% German/W. Germanic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Comal

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.9pp toward D · 2008: -47.4pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+42.7 2016: R+50.1 2012: R+54.1 2008: R+47.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -190.61%
• Current HPI: 173.7128
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.97%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-14.8% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $258,999 Zillow
• 2025-09-19 Listed $303,999 Zillow