4590 Elmwood Dr · Blaine, WA 98230

$569,500

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,500 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 48 Days on market

Built 2014 7,841 sqft lot Est $567k · at est. ↓ 46% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.3/15.0
• Cash flow +6.3/30.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +0.6/10.0
• 1% rule +0.5/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 4590 Elmwood Drive, an impeccable Harbor Shores home on a sunny corner lot just a stone's throw from the community beach parklet on the peaceful shore of Drayton Harbor. Here you'll enjoy the famous endless tide flats and outrageous sunsets right in your own neighborhood. Purchased new from the builder in 2014, with so many upgrades and improvements these meticulous owners have made, inside and out--the list includes flooring, plantation shutters, ceiling fan, California Closets, kitchen and bath fixtures, heat-pump cooling, fenced yard and much more (ask for the full list). A short five-minute drive puts you in downtown Blaine or Birch Bay; easy southbound freeway access is just

Key facts

• Sunny corner lot
• California closets
• Plantation shutters

Tags

• SUNNY CORNER LOT
• COMMUNITY BEACH PARKLET
• UPGRADES AND IMPROVEMENTS
• PLANTATION SHUTTERS
• CALIFORNIA CLOSETS
• HEAT-PUMP COOLING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Directions: Exit 274 NB to Portal Way/SR548 at Bell Rd, turn south to cross Dakota Creek Bridge to second right on Hall Rd; 2 houses in at the corner of Hall & Elmwood Dr
• Financial info: Accepts Cash, Conventional, FHA, and VA financing
• HOA & community: Community governed by CCRs; Community waterfront / private beach access

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 covered spaces
• Security: Partially fenced yard
• Utilities: Electric energy source; Public water (Birch Bay Water & Sewer District); STEP sewer (Harbor Shores Sewer Association); Power from PSE; Cable and internet via Comcast/Xfinity
• Home design: Single-family residence; One-and-one-half story; Built on lot; Faces west; Entry on main level
• Construction: Cement plank and wood construction; Composition roof; Poured concrete / slab foundation; Built as part of Harbor Shores
• Exterior features: Partially fenced; Cement planked and wood exterior; Patio; Cable and high-speed internet available; Garden space; Corner lot — paved

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen with eating space; Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Microwave; Refrigerator; Trash compactor
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms total — primary bedroom on the main level; two additional bedrooms on the upper level
• Flooring: Laminate flooring; Carpet
• Bathrooms: Two three-quarter bathrooms; One half bathroom; Two bathrooms on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump (provides cooling and heating); Ductless heating; Wall furnace
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Vaulted ceilings; Walk-in closet(s); Water heater (located in garage)
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Electric water heater in garage

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $570k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-12k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $390k (31.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $311k (45.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $311k (45.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.2% vs local median 2.2% in Blaine — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#125 in WA, #2,491 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F.
• Blaine School District (town): math 49% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #120 of 291 in WA (top 41%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Blaine Elementary School (463 students, 54% FRL); Blaine Middle School (459 students, 54% FRL); Blaine High School (609 students, 46% FRL) — zoned schools average 51% FRL vs 33% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 461 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,190 units permitted in Whatcom County in 2024 (327 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($87k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $61k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $57k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Whatcom County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$98k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($552k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $250k; list at $570k implies a 128% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $311,192 (45.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 45% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.55% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.16%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.63%
• DSCR: 0.66
• GRM: 15.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $567,000
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4590 Elmwood Dr	0.00mi	3/2.5	1,500 (0%)	1mo	$569,000	$379	99
4606 Hall Rd	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,712 (+14%)	12mo	$530,000	$310	63
1163 Rene Ct	0.65mi	3/2.5	1,584 (+6%)	2mo	$620,000	$391	59
1416 Wilson Ave	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,574 (+5%)	12mo	$522,500	$332	52
1323 Wilson Ave	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,418 (-6%)	9mo	$532,500	$376	52
2522 Dodd St	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,280 (-15%)	1mo	$525,000	$410	50
1476 Runge Ave	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,283 (-14%)	12mo	$485,000	$378	46
1321 Wilson Ave	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,326 (-12%)	11mo	$499,000	$376	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.1% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.54×
• Total profit: $245,659
• Equity at exit: $513,051

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.5%
• Equity multiple: 5.86×
• Total profit: $774,378
• Equity at exit: $1,106,413

Cash invested: $159,460 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98230

• Home prices YoY: 14.0%
• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 461
• Price-to-rent: 15.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,112 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,987
• Tax from tax record: −$249 /mo · $2,983/yr
• Insurance: −$237
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$654
• Net cashflow: $-1,014

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,395

Max offer price $390,375

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-692	-5% $-853	+0% $-1,014	+5% $-1,175	+10% $-1,336
Rent	-10% $-1,260	-5% $-1,137	+0% $-1,014	+5% $-891	+10% $-768
Rate	-1.0pp $-727	-0.5pp $-869	base $-1,014	+0.5pp $-1,162	+1.0pp $-1,312

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $142,375
• Closing costs: $17,085
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8638 Harborview Rd Blaine, WA	3.0	3.0	2200	$4,250	$1.93	15d	1	1.21mi
1350 Mitchell Ave Blaine, WA	2.0	1.0	1302	$2,095	$1.61	45d	1	1.32mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-04-29
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-08
   price $569,500
3. 2026-03-12
   listed $580,000 Active
4. 2014-08-08
   soldstatus $250,000 Sold
5. 2014-05-12
   price $254,500
6. 2014-05-12
   status Pending
7. 2014-05-12
   status Pending Inspection
8. 2014-01-25
   listed $259,500 Active
9. 2005-10-19
   soldstatus $1,050,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,983 · $249/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,581 · $465/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,598/yr (+$216/mo · 87.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥81°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 11 unhealthy d/yr today · 11 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,343
• − Mortgage interest: −$31,901
• − Property taxes: −$2,983
• − Insurance: −$2,848
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,987
• − Management: −$2,987
• − Depreciation: −$16,567
• Taxable loss: −$22,931
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,503
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,665/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Blaine School District
• NCES district ID: 5300570
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,085
• Composite: 47.05/100
• National rank: #5128
• State rank: #120 of 291 in WA

Livability — Blaine

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #125
• US rank: #2491

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime B- Employment B Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Whatcom County · 209,776 people
• Metro: Bellingham, WA
• Population (ZIP): 18,744
• Household income: $86,623
• Rent vs Own: 20.4% rent · 79.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 454.0

Population outlook (Whatcom County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 240,408 people
• By 2030: 254,667 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 281,365 · +17.0%
• By 2050: 307,592 · +27.9%
• By 2075: 375,576 · +56.2%
• By 2100: 421,637 · +75.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 9% Asian 3% Pacific Islander 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 6% Iranian 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Whatcom

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+24.9) · D 60.8% · R 35.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.9pp toward D · 2008: 18.0pp · 2024: 24.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+24.9 2020: D+23.9 2016: D+17.7 2012: D+12.1 2008: D+18.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 106.58%
• Current HPI: 868.68
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.10%
• Metro: Bellingham, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

-45.8% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $569,500 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-12 Listed $580,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-08-08 Sold (MLS) $250,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-05-12 Price Changed $254,500 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-05-12 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-05-12 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-01-25 Listed $259,500 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-10-19 Sold (Public Records) $1,050,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+16.2%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,983 · -7.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.