16415 SE Stark St #1 · Gresham, OR 97233

$85,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,080 sqft · Manufactured public records · 28 Days on market

Built 1991

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Manufactured home in good conditions 2 Bedrooms and 2 full baths.

Key facts

• Built 1991
• Listed 28 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property type: Residential — Manufactured Home in Park; Main level area approximately 1,080; Lot size range: 0K to 2,999 SqFt
• HOA & community: Land lease in place (monthly lot rent $725); Land lease expires September 30, 2026; Not a senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Carport
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service
• Home design: Manufactured home in park; Single-story (main level living); Not attached; Resale; No view
• Construction: Built in 1991; Foundation: Other; Manufacturer: SKYLINE
• Exterior features: T-111 siding; Shingle roof; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Free-standing range; Free-standing refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (main level); 2nd bedroom (main level)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (both on main level)
• Heating & cooling: Ductless heating; Mini-split cooling; Electric hot water
• Interior features: Basement: Other; Great room; Family room; Dining room; Living room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $661 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $84k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.6% vs local median 2.8% in Gresham — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#51 in OR, #1,537 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: cost of living D, crime D-.
• Reynolds SD 7 (suburban): math 21% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #162 of 183 in OR (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Wilkes Elementary School (443 students, 100% FRL); Reynolds High School (2,474 students, 67% FRL) — zoned schools average 83% FRL vs 66% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 153 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,041 units permitted in Multnomah County in 2024 (905 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $588 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Multnomah County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($84k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $83,725 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.75% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 33.35%
• DSCR: 2.48
• GRM: 4.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $54,000
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
17442 NE Glisan St #2	0.68mi	2/2.0	1,152 (+7%)	2mo	$58,000	$50	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.96% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.06×
• Total profit: $25,338
• Equity at exit: $12,674

10-year hold

• IRR: 32.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.71×
• Total profit: $64,422
• Equity at exit: $7,349

Cash invested: $23,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97233

• Rents YoY: 1.0%
• Active inventory: 153
• Price-to-rent: 4.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,490 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax from tax record: −$34 /mo · $409/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$313
• Net cashflow: $661

Break-even live

Break-even rent $652

Max offer price $85,000

Occupancy floor 51%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,250
• Closing costs: $2,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16360 SE Stark St Unit 4 Portland, OR	2.0	1.0	800	$1,499	$1.87	43d	1	0.03mi
16360 SE Stark St Unit 3 Portland, OR	2.0	1.0	800	$1,599	$2.00	10d	1	0.03mi
650 SE 162nd Ave Portland, OR	1.0–2.0	1.0	745	$1,349	$1.81	2d	9	0.12mi
235 SE 165th Ave Portland, OR	2.0	1.0	852	$1,412	$1.66	3d	5	0.13mi
906 SE 165th Ave Portland, OR	3.0	2.0	1088	$2,695	$2.48	2d	1	0.19mi
473 SE 169th Ave Portland, OR	2.0–3.0	2.0	1006	$1,495	$1.49	14d	5	0.21mi
16124 SE Alder St Apt 4 Portland, OR	1.0	1.0	750	$1,100	$1.47	43d	1	0.22mi
16836 SE Stark St Unit 104 Portland, OR	2.0	1.0	900	$1,300	$1.44	23d	1	0.22mi
16836 SE Stark St Apt 107 Portland, OR	2.0	1.0	900	$1,350	$1.50	11d	1	0.22mi
16836 SE Stark St Unit 102 Portland, OR	2.0	1.5	900	$1,375	$1.53	14d	1	0.22mi
203 SE 162nd Ave Unit 01 Portland, OR	3.0	1.0	925	$1,500	$1.62	7d	1	0.22mi
16025 SE Stark St Portland, OR	2.0	1.0	862	$1,482	$1.72	23d	1	0.23mi
312-318 SE 160th Ave Unit 312-04 Portland, OR	2.0	1.0	900	$1,350	$1.50	2d	1	0.24mi
312-318 SE 160th Ave Unit 318-06 Portland, OR	2.0	1.0	900	$1,450	$1.61	43d	1	0.24mi
16503 E Burnside St Portland, OR	1.0–3.0	1.0	797	$1,195	$1.50	43d	1	0.24mi
16964 SE Stark St Portland, OR	2.0	1.5	945	$1,250	$1.32	43d	1	0.26mi
400 SE 169th Ave Unit 402 Portland, OR	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,695	$1.70	43d	1	0.26mi
10 NE 162nd Ave Portland, OR	1.0–2.0	1.0	950	$1,325	$1.39	11d	5	0.27mi
10 NE 162nd Ave Apt 32 Portland, OR	2.0	1.0	1200	$1,350	$1.12	43d	1	0.27mi
533-615 SE 160th Ave Unit 601 Portland, OR	2.0	1.0	780	$1,350	$1.73	43d	1	0.27mi
533-615 SE 160th Ave Unit 551 Portland, OR	3.0	1.0	928	$1,500	$1.62	43d	1	0.27mi
16000 SE Alder St Unit 19 Portland, OR	2.0	1.0	780	$1,350	$1.73	23d	1	0.29mi
16000 SE Alder St Apt 28 Portland, OR	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,475	$1.48	43d	1	0.29mi
23 NE 162nd Ave Unit 210 Portland, OR	2.0	1.0	850	$1,375	$1.62	12d	1	0.29mi
100 NE 162nd Ave Unit D Portland, OR	2.0	1.0	845	$1,300	$1.54	14d	1	0.30mi
247 SE 160th Ave Portland, OR	2.0	1.0	853	$1,227	$1.44	20d	1	0.30mi
100 NE 162nd Ave Unit K Portland, OR	2.0	1.0	845	$1,350	$1.60	12d	1	0.30mi
100 SE 160th Ave Portland, OR	1.0	1.0	850	$1,250	$1.47	14d	1	0.31mi
15855 SE Washington Ct Portland, OR	3.0	1.5	1160	$2,295	$1.98	23d	1	0.31mi
15847 SE Stark St Portland, OR	1.0–2.0	1.0	750	$1,295	$1.73	43d	4	0.31mi
15841 SE Washington Ct Portland, OR	3.0	1.5	1160	$2,295	$1.98	17d	1	0.32mi
166 NE 162nd Ave Apt 7 Portland, OR	2.0	1.0	795	$1,300	$1.64	43d	1	0.32mi
166 NE 162nd Ave Unit 10 Portland, OR	2.0	1.0	795	$1,450	$1.82	43d	1	0.32mi
16047 E Burnside St Unit 16 Portland, OR	1.0	1.0	750	$1,200	$1.60	4d	1	0.33mi
16047 E Burnside St Unit 06 Portland, OR	2.0	1.0	850	$1,250	$1.47	14d	1	0.33mi
16005 E Burnside St Unit 04 Portland, OR	2.0	1.0	800	$1,250	$1.56	23d	1	0.33mi
16005 E Burnside St Unit 12 Portland, OR	3.0	1.0	975	$1,500	$1.54	12d	1	0.33mi
15851 E Burnside St Unit 15863 Portland, OR	2.0	1.0	850	$1,450	$1.71	43d	1	0.37mi
223 NE 162nd Ave Unit 102 Portland, OR	2.0	1.0	800	$1,250	$1.56	23d	1	0.40mi
223 NE 162nd Ave Apt 207 Portland, OR	2.0	1.0	800	$1,250	$1.56	3d	1	0.40mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-01
   status $85,000 Pending 28 DOM
2. 2026-05-31
   days on market $85,000 Active 28 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $409 · $34/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $824 · $69/mo
• Expected delta: +$416/yr (+$35/mo · 101.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 23 unhealthy d/yr today · 27 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,874
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,761
• − Property taxes: −$409
• − Insurance: −$425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,430
• − Management: −$1,430
• − Depreciation: −$2,473
• Taxable income: $6,947
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,667
• After-tax cash flow: $6,271/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Reynolds SD 7
• NCES district ID: 4110520
• Math proficiency: 21% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $45,502
• Composite: 27.4/100
• National rank: #12399
• State rank: #162 of 183 in OR

Livability — Gresham

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #51
• US rank: #1537

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living D Crime D- Employment B- Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Gresham, OR
• County: Multnomah County · 786,692 people
• City population: 86,119
• Metro: Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA
• Population (ZIP): 36,236
• Household income: $60,198
• Rent vs Own: 53.0% rent · 47.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 2541.0

Population outlook (Multnomah County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 930,825 people
• By 2030: 996,904 · +7.1%
• By 2040: 1,121,379 · +20.5%
• By 2050: 1,242,124 · +33.4%
• By 2075: 1,464,431 · +57.3%
• By 2100: 1,576,181 · +69.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: White 51% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 13% Asian 9% Black 9% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 4% Portuguese 3% Subsaharan African 3%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 61% English-only · Spanish 18% Russian/Polish/Slavic 7% Other Asian/Pacific 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Multnomah

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+62.1) · D 79.3% · R 17.2% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.0pp toward D · 2008: 56.1pp · 2024: 62.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+62.1 2020: D+61.3 2016: D+58.3 2012: D+54.9 2008: D+56.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -493.14%
• Current HPI: 302.1015
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.96%
• Metro: Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Listed $85,000 RMLS

Property tax history

+2.5%/yr

Latest (2016): $409 · +10.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.