9603 Cedar Ridge Ct · Willis, TX 77318

$175,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · Manufactured public records · 44 Days on market

Built 1999 9,679 sqft lot $112/sqft · 29% above area Est $136k · 29% over $20/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.0/30.0
• DSCR +8.1/10.0
• 1% rule +6.4/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nice Doublewide 4-Bedroom, 2-Bath home on corner lot in quiet neighborhood just off I-45. Split floor plan with large kitchen with island. Large shade trees in the front and deck on the back. All electric with city water and sewer.

Key facts

• Huge yard
• Corner lot
• 9,679 sq ft lot

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• HUGE YARD

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Seller disclosure available
• HOA & community: Association managed by IMC Property Management; Annual association fee of $240 — covers common areas

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Single-level entry (rooms listed on first floor)
• Construction: Built in 1999; Block foundation; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Corner lot; Cleared lot; Located in a subdivision; Asphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Free-standing range; Oven
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on first floor (15 x 13); Bedroom on first floor (10 x 9); Bedroom on first floor (10 x 10); Bedroom on first floor (10 x 10)
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air (electric)
• Interior features: Kitchen island; 6 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $380 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $175k).
• Recommended offer: $170k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.9% vs local median 4.7% in Willis — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#933 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+, amenities F.
• Willis ISD (rural): math 33% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #458 of 826 in TX (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lynn Lucas Middle (math 23% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,156 of 1,662 statewide, top 71%, 971 students, 74% FRL); Willis H S (math 19% / reading 46%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 2,521 students, 57% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.1%/yr); 1189 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($170k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $169,750 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.90%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.31%
• DSCR: 1.41
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $136,038
• List price: $175,000
• Delta: 28.64%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9646 Live Oak Trl	0.20mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,456 (-7%)	3mo	$145,000	$100	71
13042 Aspen Way Ct	0.09mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (-14%)	3mo	$125,000	$93	64
9619 Cypress Dr	0.12mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (-14%)	6mo	$129,900	$97	61
13049 Pine Trail Ct	0.14mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,368 (-13%)	8mo	$149,900	$110	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.80×
• Total profit: $-9,960
• Equity at exit: $26,093

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.00×
• Total profit: $11
• Equity at exit: $15,131

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77318

• Home prices YoY: -32.7%
• Rents YoY: -2.1%
• Active inventory: 1189
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,995 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax from tax record: −$185 /mo · $2,221/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$20
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$419
• Net cashflow: $380

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,514

Max offer price $175,000

Occupancy floor 76%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9700 FM 1097 Rd W Willis, TX	2.0–3.0	2.0	1115	$1,455	$1.30	1d	6	0.57mi
104 Turner Dr Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1153	$1,700	$1.47	43d	1	0.71mi
104 Runners ST Unit B Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1213	$1,700	$1.40	4d	1	1.10mi
314 Harbor Bend Ct Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1311	$1,800	$1.37	43d	1	1.18mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $20 · $240/yr
• Likely covers: watersewerelectric

Listing history 33 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $175,000 Active 44 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $175,000 Active 43 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $175,000 Active 42 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $175,000 Active 41 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $175,000 Active 39 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $175,000 Active 35 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $175,000 Active 34 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $175,000 Active 33 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $175,000 Active 30 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $175,000 Active 29 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $175,000 Active 28 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $175,000 Active 27 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $175,000 Active 26 DOM
14. 2026-05-05
    listed $175,000 Active 404-char remark
15. 2025-06-24
    status Pending
16. 2025-03-23
    status Pending
17. 2025-03-23
    status Active
18. 2025-03-21
    historical
19. 2025-03-04
    status Pending
20. 2025-02-02
    historical
21. 2025-01-29
    price $179,000
22. 2025-01-13
    price $185,000
23. 2024-09-26
    price $190,000
24. 2024-08-25
    listed $195,000 Active
25. 2023-05-08
    soldstatus Sold

    Show marketing remark (234 chars)

    Nice Doublewide 4-Bedroom, 2-Bath home on corner lot in quiet neighborhood just off I-45. Split floor plan with large kitchen with island. Large shade trees in the front and deck on the back. All electric with city water and sewer.

26. 2023-05-08
    soldstatus

    Show marketing remark (234 chars)

    Nice Doublewide 4-Bedroom, 2-Bath home on corner lot in quiet neighborhood just off I-45. Split floor plan with large kitchen with island. Large shade trees in the front and deck on the back. All electric with city water and sewer.

27. 2023-04-27
    status Pending

    Show marketing remark (234 chars)

    Nice Doublewide 4-Bedroom, 2-Bath home on corner lot in quiet neighborhood just off I-45. Split floor plan with large kitchen with island. Large shade trees in the front and deck on the back. All electric with city water and sewer.

28. 2023-04-20
    status Option Pending

    Show marketing remark (234 chars)

    Nice Doublewide 4-Bedroom, 2-Bath home on corner lot in quiet neighborhood just off I-45. Split floor plan with large kitchen with island. Large shade trees in the front and deck on the back. All electric with city water and sewer.

29. 2023-02-27
    price $140,000

    Show marketing remark (234 chars)

    Nice Doublewide 4-Bedroom, 2-Bath home on corner lot in quiet neighborhood just off I-45. Split floor plan with large kitchen with island. Large shade trees in the front and deck on the back. All electric with city water and sewer.

30. 2023-01-01
    status Active

    Show marketing remark (234 chars)

    Nice Doublewide 4-Bedroom, 2-Bath home on corner lot in quiet neighborhood just off I-45. Split floor plan with large kitchen with island. Large shade trees in the front and deck on the back. All electric with city water and sewer.

31. 2022-12-23
    status Option Pending

    Show marketing remark (234 chars)

    Nice Doublewide 4-Bedroom, 2-Bath home on corner lot in quiet neighborhood just off I-45. Split floor plan with large kitchen with island. Large shade trees in the front and deck on the back. All electric with city water and sewer.

32. 2022-12-13
    listed $155,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (234 chars)

    Nice Doublewide 4-Bedroom, 2-Bath home on corner lot in quiet neighborhood just off I-45. Split floor plan with large kitchen with island. Large shade trees in the front and deck on the back. All electric with city water and sewer.

33. 2003-04-29
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,221 · $185/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,202 · $267/mo
• Expected delta: +$981/yr (+$82/mo · 44.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,940
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$2,221
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,915
• − Management: −$1,915
• − HOA: −$240
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable income: $1,880
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$451
• After-tax cash flow: $4,113/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Willis ISD
• NCES district ID: 4845900
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,828
• Composite: 32.32/100
• National rank: #5746
• State rank: #458 of 826 in TX

Livability — Willis

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #933
• US rank: #16579

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Willis, TX
• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 38,421
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 20,792
• Household income: $92,415
• Rent vs Own: 19.3% rent · 80.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 279.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 14% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -114.58%
• Current HPI: 236.256
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.09%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+12.9% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Listed $175,000 HARMLS
• 2025-06-24 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-03-23 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-03-23 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2025-03-21 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-03-04 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-02-02 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-01-29 Price Changed $179,000 HARMLS
• 2025-01-13 Price Changed $185,000 HARMLS
• 2024-09-26 Price Changed $190,000 HARMLS
• 2024-08-25 Listed $195,000 HARMLS
• 2023-05-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-05-08 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2023-04-27 Pending — HARMLS
• 2023-04-20 Pending — HARMLS
• 2023-02-27 Price Changed $140,000 HARMLS
• 2023-01-01 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2022-12-23 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-12-13 Listed $155,000 HARMLS
• 2003-04-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+7.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,221 · -21.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.