Ashbury Plan · Canandaigua, NY 14424

$139,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured · 874 Days on market

Poor condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.6/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Listed 874 days

🏗️ New construction. The $139,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $50,000.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $140k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($16k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $140k).
• Recommended offer: $123k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 37.6% vs local median 3.4% in Canandaigua — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#243 in NY, #3,822 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, schools B+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, health & safety D-.
• Gorham-Middlesex Central School District (Marcus Whitman) (rural): math 36% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #519 of 590 in NY (top 88%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.5%/yr); 223 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 284 units permitted in Ontario County in 2024 (69 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($80k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $346 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ontario County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 874 days — a 12% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $123,112 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 874 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.18% ✓
• Cap rate: 37.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 111.86%
• DSCR: 5.98
• GRM: 2.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $50,000
• List price: $139,900
• Delta: 179.80%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
420 Mountain Ash Dr	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,400 (+4%)	14mo	$73,500	$53	69
218 Crabapple	0.14mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,456 (+8%)	18mo	$40,000	$27	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 7.15×
• Total profit: $86,089
• Equity at exit: $7,455

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 17.60×
• Total profit: $232,376
• Equity at exit: $4,323

Cash invested: $14,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14424

• Home prices YoY: -21.2%
• Rents YoY: 8.5%
• Active inventory: 223
• Price-to-rent: 5.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,089 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$62 /mo · $750/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$439
• Net cashflow: $1,305

Break-even live

Break-even rent $437

Max offer price $50,000

Occupancy floor 33%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,500
• Closing costs: $1,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $139,900 Active 874 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $139,900 Active 873 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $139,900 Active 872 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $139,900 Active 871 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $139,900 Active 869 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $139,900 Active 866 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $139,900 Active 865 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $139,900 Active 864 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $139,900 Active 863 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $139,900 Active 860 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $139,900 Active 859 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $139,900 Active 858 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $139,900 Active 857 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $139,900 Active 856 DOM
15. 2024-01-26
    listed $139,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,072
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,801
• − Property taxes: −$750
• − Insurance: −$250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,006
• − Management: −$2,006
• − Depreciation: −$1,455
• Taxable income: $15,805
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,793
• After-tax cash flow: $11,867/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This manufactured home requires extensive renovations across all systems and areas to become move-in ready and significantly increase its value.

Repairs flagged

• Major Kitchen — No kitchen photos provided, but the listing suggests a manufactured home, which often requires significant kitchen renovations.
• Major Bathrooms — No bathroom photos provided, but the listing suggests a manufactured home, which often requires significant bathroom renovations.
• Major Roof — No roof photos provided, but the listing suggests a manufactured home, which often requires significant roof renovations.
• Major Exterior — No exterior photos provided, but the listing suggests a manufactured home, which often requires significant exterior renovations.
• Major Flooring — No flooring photos provided, but the listing suggests a manufactured home, which often requires significant flooring renovations.
• Major Interior walls/paint — No interior wall/paint photos provided, but the listing suggests a manufactured home, which often requires significant interior wall/paint renovations.
• Major HVAC/mechanicals — No HVAC/mechanical photos provided, but the listing suggests a manufactured home, which often requires significant HVAC/mechanical renovations.
• Major Landscaping/curb appeal — No landscaping/curb appeal photos provided, but the listing suggests a manufactured home, which often requires significant landscaping/curb appeal renovations.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Kitchen renovation — A modern kitchen can significantly increase both resale and rental value.
• Both Bathroom renovation — Up-to-date bathrooms are crucial for both resale and rental appeal.
• Both Roof replacement — A new roof is essential for both safety and aesthetic appeal.
• Both Exterior siding and paint — A fresh exterior can greatly enhance curb appeal and value.
• Both Flooring replacement — New flooring can improve the home's appearance and functionality.
• Both Interior wall/paint — Fresh paint and decor can make the interior more inviting and valuable.
• Both HVAC system upgrade — A modern HVAC system is essential for comfort and energy efficiency.
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal — A well-maintained yard can significantly boost both resale and rental value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Kitchen · No kitchen photos provided, but the listing suggests a manufactured home, which often requires significant kitchen renovations.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Bathrooms · No bathroom photos provided, but the listing suggests a manufactured home, which often requires significant bathroom renovations.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Roof · No roof photos provided, but the listing suggests a manufactured home, which often requires significant roof renovations.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Exterior · No exterior photos provided, but the listing suggests a manufactured home, which often requires significant exterior renovations.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Flooring · No flooring photos provided, but the listing suggests a manufactured home, which often requires significant flooring renovations.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Interior walls/paint · No interior wall/paint photos provided, but the listing suggests a manufactured home, which often requires significant interior wall/paint renovations.	Major	$15,000–50,000
HVAC/mechanicals · No HVAC/mechanical photos provided, but the listing suggests a manufactured home, which often requires significant HVAC/mechanical renovations.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Landscaping/curb appeal · No landscaping/curb appeal photos provided, but the listing suggests a manufactured home, which often requires significant landscaping/curb appeal renovations.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 8 items		$120,000–400,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Kitchen renovation — A modern kitchen can significantly increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Bathroom renovation — Up-to-date bathrooms are crucial for both resale and rental appeal. ↑
• Both Roof replacement — A new roof is essential for both safety and aesthetic appeal. ↑
• Both Exterior siding and paint — A fresh exterior can greatly enhance curb appeal and value. ↑
• Both Flooring replacement — New flooring can improve the home's appearance and functionality. ↑
• Both Interior wall/paint — Fresh paint and decor can make the interior more inviting and valuable. ↑
• Both HVAC system upgrade — A modern HVAC system is essential for comfort and energy efficiency. ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal — A well-maintained yard can significantly boost both resale and rental value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gorham-Middlesex Central School District (Marcus Whitman)
• NCES district ID: 3612300
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,088
• Composite: 34.33/100
• National rank: #5233
• State rank: #519 of 590 in NY

Livability — Canandaigua

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #243
• US rank: #3822

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living B Crime B- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Ontario County · 58,989 people
• City population: 28,786
• Metro: Rochester, NY
• Population (ZIP): 28,786
• Household income: $79,778
• Rent vs Own: 34.8% rent · 65.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 737.0

Population outlook (Ontario County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 111,230 people
• By 2030: 111,401 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 109,535 · -1.5%
• By 2050: 104,895 · -5.7%
• By 2075: 92,999 · -16.4%
• By 2100: 73,723 · -33.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 5% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Iranian 4% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3% German/W. Germanic 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ontario

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.4% · R 50.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.0pp toward R · 2008: -0.1pp · 2024: -1.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.2 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.6 2012: R+1.6 2008: R+0.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -70.94%
• Current HPI: 263.755
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.46%
• Metro: Rochester, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2024-01-26 Listed $139,900 Zillow