5103 Robinson Rd · Jackson, MS 39204

$29,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,740 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 385 Days on market

Built 1959 10,018 sqft lot $17/sqft · 34% below area Est $44k · 34% under ↓ 53% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 5103 Robinson Road - a high-visibility property located in the heart of South Jackson. Situated along a well-traveled corridor, this versatile site offers excellent accessibility and exposure, making it ideal for retail, office, or mixed-use development. Set on a spacious lot, the property boasts convenient access to major thoroughfares and is just minutes from local amenities, schools, and residential neighborhoods. Whether you're looking to expand your business footprint or invest in Jackson's growing commercial landscape, this location offers the flexibility and traffic needed to thrive. Don't miss this opportunity to secure a strategic location with strong growth potential. Perfect for entrepreneurs, small businesses, or investors seeking value in a dynamic market.

Key facts

• Convenient access
• Local amenities
• Strategic location

Tags

• EXCELLENT ACCESSIBILITY
• CONVENIENT ACCESS
• LOCAL AMENITIES
• RESIDENTIAL NEIGHBORHOODS
• STRATEGIC LOCATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $29k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $784 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $29k).
• Recommended offer: $26k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 38.8% vs local median 9.9% in Jackson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#66 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, employment F.
• Jackson Public School District (urban): math 9% / reading 18% proficiency, ranked #112 of 130 in MS (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 88% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+13.6%/yr); 121 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 167 units permitted in Hinds County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,247/mo this rent would consume 49% of the median local household income ($30k/yr) (locally 1099% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($200 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Hinds County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 385 days — a 12% lower offer ($26k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 27y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $6k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1959 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $25,520 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 385 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1959 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.30% ✓
• Cap rate: 38.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 115.93%
• DSCR: 6.16
• GRM: 1.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $44,217
• List price: $29,000
• Delta: -34.41%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5020 Barrier Pl	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,688 (-3%)	12mo	$94,500	$56	68
5042 Lurline Dr	0.28mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,796 (+3%)	16mo	$89,999	$50	63

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 9.91×
• Total profit: $72,364
• Equity at exit: $26,125

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 24.42×
• Total profit: $190,168
• Equity at exit: $56,341

Cash invested: $8,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39204

• Home prices YoY: 8.0%
• Rents YoY: 13.6%
• Active inventory: 121
• Price-to-rent: 1.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,247 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$152
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$36 /mo · $435/yr
• Insurance: −$12
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$262
• Net cashflow: $784

Break-even live

Break-even rent $254

Max offer price $29,000

Occupancy floor 32%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $7,250
• Closing costs: $870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5136 Lurline Dr Unit Ma Jackson, MS	3.0	1.5	1134	$1,100	$0.97	14d	1	0.32mi
2010 Chadwick Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	2.0	1275	$1,145	$0.90	43d	1	0.39mi
2010 Chadwick Dr Jackson, MS	2.0	2.0	1089	$1,174	$1.08	14d	1	0.39mi
1533 Raymond Rd Jackson, MS	2.0	1.0	1135	$1,010	$0.89	43d	1	0.43mi
1805 Hospital Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	2.0	1335	$1,050	$0.79	14d	1	0.44mi
125 Wingfield Ct Unit NA Jackson, MS	4.0	2.0	1797	$1,650	$0.92	23d	1	0.97mi
427 McDowell Park Cir Jackson, MS	3.0	1.5	1308	$1,200	$0.92	14d	1	1.13mi
1513 Maria Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	2.0	1120	$1,200	$1.07	14d	1	1.17mi
1513 Maria Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	2.0	1120	$1,200	$1.07	23d	1	1.17mi
2694 Woodside Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	1.0	1509	$1,075	$0.71	23d	1	1.26mi
2694 Woodside Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	1.0	1509	$1,075	$0.71	14d	1	1.26mi
2808 Ridgeland Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	2.0	1606	$1,600	$1.00	43d	1	1.26mi
2915 Longwood Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	2.0	1800	$1,400	$0.78	23d	1	1.29mi
2732 Woodside Dr Jackson, MS	4.0	2.0	1566	$1,050	$0.67	23d	1	1.31mi
2904 Marwood Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	2.0	1554	$1,250	$0.80	23d	1	1.39mi
2242 Castle Hill Dr Jackson, MS	4.0	2.0	1500	$1,475	$0.98	14d	1	1.42mi
2242 Castle Hill Dr Jackson, MS	4.0	2.0	1500	$1,475	$0.98	23d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $29,000 Active 385 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $29,000 Active 384 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $29,000 Active 383 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $29,000 Active 382 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $29,000 Active 380 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $29,000 Active 379 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $29,000 Active 377 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $29,000 Active 376 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $29,000 Active 375 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $29,000 Active 374 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $29,000 Active 371 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    pricedays on market $29,000 Active 370 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $35,000 Active 369 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $35,000 Active 368 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $35,000 Active 367 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $35,000 Active 366 DOM
17. 2025-05-28
    listed $35,000 Active 796-char remark

    Show marketing remark (796 chars)

    Welcome to 5103 Robinson Road - a high-visibility property located in the heart of South Jackson. Situated along a well-traveled corridor, this versatile site offers excellent accessibility and exposure, making it ideal for retail, office, or mixed-use development. Set on a spacious lot, the property boasts convenient access to major thoroughfares and is just minutes from local amenities, schools, and residential neighborhoods. Whether you're looking to expand your business footprint or invest in Jackson's growing commercial landscape, this location offers the flexibility and traffic needed to thrive. Don't miss this opportunity to secure a strategic location with strong growth potential. Perfect for entrepreneurs, small businesses, or investors seeking value in a dynamic market.

18. 2024-09-02
    historical
19. 2024-03-12
    price $49,000
20. 2023-09-01
    listed $59,000 Active
21. 2021-10-08
    historical
22. 2018-02-14
    soldstatus
23. 2017-08-14
    soldstatus
24. 2006-08-11
    soldstatus
25. 2000-02-24
    soldstatus
26. 1999-07-20
    listed $75,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,960
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,624
• − Property taxes: −$435
• − Insurance: −$145
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,197
• − Management: −$1,197
• − Depreciation: −$844
• Taxable income: $9,518
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,284
• After-tax cash flow: $7,129/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jackson Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2802190
• Math proficiency: 9% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 18% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $33,234
• Composite: 10.89/100
• National rank: #9755
• State rank: #112 of 130 in MS

Livability — Jackson

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #66
• US rank: #9695

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jackson, MS
• County: Hinds County · 167,040 people
• City population: 140,204
• Metro: Jackson, MS
• Population (ZIP): 13,249
• Household income: $30,237
• Rent vs Own: 66.3% rent · 33.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1099.0

Population outlook (Hinds County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 242,528 people
• By 2030: 241,113 · -0.6%
• By 2040: 235,557 · -2.9%
• By 2050: 226,946 · -6.4%
• By 2075: 199,995 · -17.5%
• By 2100: 164,165 · -32.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 90% White 5% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Hinds

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+46.1) · D 72.4% · R 26.3% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: 39.0pp · 2024: 46.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+46.1 2020: D+48.3 2016: D+43.7 2012: D+45.1 2008: D+39.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 17.25%
• Current HPI: 233.9061
• Rent YoY: ▲ 13.56%
• Metro: Jackson, MS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-53.3% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2025-05-28 Listed $35,000 MLSU
• 2024-09-02 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2024-03-12 Price Changed $49,000 MLSU
• 2023-09-01 Listed $59,000 MLSU
• 2021-10-08 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2018-02-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2017-08-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2006-08-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2000-02-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1999-07-20 Listed $75,000 MLSU

Property tax history

+7.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,738 · +2.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.