The Mockingbird II Plan · Pattison, TX 77423

$259,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,689 sqft · SingleFamily · 83 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Mockingbird II displays an excellent use of space and packs a lot of home into its smartly designed single-story layout. A covered front porch leads into the foyer with access to the mud room off the garage. A dining area connects the expansive family room and kitchen at the rear of the home. The primary bedroom and bathroom are separate from the three secondary bedrooms, which share a bathroom and laundry room at the back of the home. A covered rear patio makes for the perfect outdoor entertainment area with options to expand the patio for even more space.

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Covered rear patio
• Dining area

Tags

• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• MUD ROOM
• DINING AREA
• EXPANSIVE FAMILY ROOM
• COVERED REAR PATIO
• OUTDOOR ENTERTAINMENT AREA

🏗️ New construction. The $259,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $282,174.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $260k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-106 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $233k (10.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $233k (10.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 4.4% in Pattison — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#876 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, cost of living A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Royal ISD (rural): math 23% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #744 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 77% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Royal El (math 27% / reading 20%, grade F, #3,247 of 4,322 statewide, top 76%, 762 students, 78% FRL); Royal J H (math 22% / reading 23%, grade F, #1,341 of 1,662 statewide, top 82%, 593 students, 73% FRL); Royal H S (math 17% / reading 26%, grade F, #1,377 of 1,632 statewide, top 85%, 842 students, 71% FRL) — zoned schools at 74% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.0%/yr); 1014 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 483 units permitted in Waller County in 2024 (89 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($84k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Waller County population projected at +62% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 83 days — a 6% lower offer ($244k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $28k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $233,442 (10.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 83 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 10% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.84%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.61%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $282,174
• List price: $259,990
• Delta: -7.86%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
429 Stone Placa Trl	0.27mi	4/2.0	1,689 (0%)	2mo	$288,225	$171	86
331 Palero Path	0.29mi	4/2.0	1,689 (0%)	11mo	$284,780	$169	77
448 Stone Placa	0.31mi	4/2.0	1,616 (-4%)	2mo	$260,000	$161	77
319 Palero Path	0.29mi	4/2.0	1,616 (-4%)	8mo	$279,990	$173	72
317 Stone Placa Trl	0.26mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,770 (+5%)	9mo	$296,990	$168	68
321 Stone Placa Trl	0.25mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,566 (-7%)	4mo	$259,990	$166	68
308 Palero Path	0.27mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,784 (+6%)	8mo	$289,990	$163	63
468 Stone Placa Trl	0.33mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,566 (-7%)	7mo	$274,625	$175	62
312 Palero Path	0.26mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,866 (+10%)	5mo	$299,990	$161	59
332 Palero Path	0.26mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,505 (-11%)	6mo	$269,990	$179	58
444 Stone Placa	0.30mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,505 (-11%)	4mo	$272,000	$181	58
315 Palero Path	0.29mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,450 (-14%)	7mo	$262,760	$181	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-59,272
• Equity at exit: $42,073

10-year hold

• IRR: -26.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.10×
• Total profit: $-86,590
• Equity at exit: $24,397

Cash invested: $79,009 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77423

• Rents YoY: -1.0%
• Active inventory: 1014
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,334 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,480
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$353 /mo · $4,233/yr
• Insurance: −$118
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$490
• Net cashflow: $-106

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,468

Max offer price $266,857

Occupancy floor 100%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $89	-5% $-8	+0% $-106	+5% $-203	+10% $-301
Rent	-10% $-290	-5% $-198	+0% $-106	+5% $-14	+10% $79
Rate	-1.0pp $36	-0.5pp $-34	base $-106	+0.5pp $-179	+1.0pp $-253

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $70,544
• Closing costs: $8,465
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $259,990 Active 83 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $259,990 Active 80 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $259,990 Active 79 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $259,990 Active 78 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $259,990 Active 77 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $259,990 Active 75 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $269,990 Active 71 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $269,990 Active 70 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $269,990 Active 69 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $269,990 Active 66 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $269,990 Active 65 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $269,990 Active 64 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $269,990 Active 63 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $269,990 Active 62 DOM
15. 2026-04-15
    price $269,990 567-char remark

    Show marketing remark (567 chars)

    The Mockingbird II displays an excellent use of space and packs a lot of home into its smartly designed single-story layout. A covered front porch leads into the foyer with access to the mud room off the garage. A dining area connects the expansive family room and kitchen at the rear of the home. The primary bedroom and bathroom are separate from the three secondary bedrooms, which share a bathroom and laundry room at the back of the home. A covered rear patio makes for the perfect outdoor entertainment area with options to expand the patio for even more space.

16. 2026-03-31
    listed $287,990 Active 567-char remark

    Show marketing remark (567 chars)

    The Mockingbird II displays an excellent use of space and packs a lot of home into its smartly designed single-story layout. A covered front porch leads into the foyer with access to the mud room off the garage. A dining area connects the expansive family room and kitchen at the rear of the home. The primary bedroom and bathroom are separate from the three secondary bedrooms, which share a bathroom and laundry room at the back of the home. A covered rear patio makes for the perfect outdoor entertainment area with options to expand the patio for even more space.

17. 2026-01-13
    price $249,990 567-char remark

    Show marketing remark (567 chars)

    The Mockingbird II displays an excellent use of space and packs a lot of home into its smartly designed single-story layout. A covered front porch leads into the foyer with access to the mud room off the garage. A dining area connects the expansive family room and kitchen at the rear of the home. The primary bedroom and bathroom are separate from the three secondary bedrooms, which share a bathroom and laundry room at the back of the home. A covered rear patio makes for the perfect outdoor entertainment area with options to expand the patio for even more space.

18. 2025-12-02
    price $259,990 567-char remark

    Show marketing remark (567 chars)

    The Mockingbird II displays an excellent use of space and packs a lot of home into its smartly designed single-story layout. A covered front porch leads into the foyer with access to the mud room off the garage. A dining area connects the expansive family room and kitchen at the rear of the home. The primary bedroom and bathroom are separate from the three secondary bedrooms, which share a bathroom and laundry room at the back of the home. A covered rear patio makes for the perfect outdoor entertainment area with options to expand the patio for even more space.

19. 2025-11-04
    price $256,990 567-char remark

    Show marketing remark (567 chars)

    The Mockingbird II displays an excellent use of space and packs a lot of home into its smartly designed single-story layout. A covered front porch leads into the foyer with access to the mud room off the garage. A dining area connects the expansive family room and kitchen at the rear of the home. The primary bedroom and bathroom are separate from the three secondary bedrooms, which share a bathroom and laundry room at the back of the home. A covered rear patio makes for the perfect outdoor entertainment area with options to expand the patio for even more space.

20. 2025-05-07
    price $254,990 567-char remark

    Show marketing remark (567 chars)

    The Mockingbird II displays an excellent use of space and packs a lot of home into its smartly designed single-story layout. A covered front porch leads into the foyer with access to the mud room off the garage. A dining area connects the expansive family room and kitchen at the rear of the home. The primary bedroom and bathroom are separate from the three secondary bedrooms, which share a bathroom and laundry room at the back of the home. A covered rear patio makes for the perfect outdoor entertainment area with options to expand the patio for even more space.

21. 2025-02-04
    price $264,990 567-char remark

    Show marketing remark (567 chars)

    The Mockingbird II displays an excellent use of space and packs a lot of home into its smartly designed single-story layout. A covered front porch leads into the foyer with access to the mud room off the garage. A dining area connects the expansive family room and kitchen at the rear of the home. The primary bedroom and bathroom are separate from the three secondary bedrooms, which share a bathroom and laundry room at the back of the home. A covered rear patio makes for the perfect outdoor entertainment area with options to expand the patio for even more space.

22. 2024-12-16
    listed $269,990 Active 567-char remark

    Show marketing remark (567 chars)

    The Mockingbird II displays an excellent use of space and packs a lot of home into its smartly designed single-story layout. A covered front porch leads into the foyer with access to the mud room off the garage. A dining area connects the expansive family room and kitchen at the rear of the home. The primary bedroom and bathroom are separate from the three secondary bedrooms, which share a bathroom and laundry room at the back of the home. A covered rear patio makes for the perfect outdoor entertainment area with options to expand the patio for even more space.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,013
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,806
• − Property taxes: −$4,233
• − Insurance: −$1,411
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,241
• − Management: −$2,241
• − Depreciation: −$8,209
• Taxable loss: −$6,127
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,471
• After-tax cash flow: $200/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

The Mockingbird II is a well-maintained single-story home with good condition and minimal repairs needed. It offers a good return on investment with updates that can enhance its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal
• Rental Clean gutters — Keeps property in good condition

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal ↑
• Rental Clean gutters — Keeps property in good condition ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Royal ISD
• NCES district ID: 4838190
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $41,059
• Composite: 19.55/100
• National rank: #8760
• State rank: #744 of 826 in TX

Livability — Pattison

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #876
• US rank: #15789

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Waller County · 18,767 people
• City population: 18,767
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 18,767
• Household income: $84,490
• Rent vs Own: 20.6% rent · 79.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 20.0

Population outlook (Waller County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 60,772 people
• By 2030: 67,616 · +11.3%
• By 2040: 82,283 · +35.4%
• By 2050: 98,276 · +61.7%
• By 2075: 142,860 · +135.1%
• By 2100: 175,596 · +188.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 41% White 41% Black 14% Two or more races 13% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, China, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 32% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Waller

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.0) · D 37.0% · R 62.0% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -7.2pp · 2024: -25.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.0 2020: R+26.7 2016: R+28.6 2012: R+17.6 2008: R+7.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -125.28%
• Current HPI: 204.8709
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.01%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $269,990 Zillow
• 2026-03-31 Listed $287,990 Zillow
• 2026-01-13 Price Changed $249,990 Zillow
• 2025-12-02 Price Changed $259,990 Zillow
• 2025-11-04 Price Changed $256,990 Zillow
• 2025-05-07 Price Changed $254,990 Zillow
• 2025-02-04 Price Changed $264,990 Zillow
• 2024-12-16 Listed $269,990 Zillow