Lot 5 Chena Riv · Badger, AK 99705

$99,900

1 bd · None ba · 500 sqft · SingleFamily · 5 Days on market

Built 1979 1.85 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Chance to own a cabin on the river without being in the middle of no where! Easy weekend access to your own cabin on the Chena River. Property has front and back decks, outhouse and covered storage. Woodstove was replaced in 2014 and has been barely used since. Loft bedroom area along with back bedroom area give you plenty of room for family. Surrounded by beatuiful birch trees this property is a gem. Furnishing conveys with sale. This property is river access only. Approximately 7 miles from Nordale boat launch.

Key facts

• Back bedroom area
• Woodstove replaced
• Covered storage

Tags

• CABIN ON THE RIVER
• FRONT AND BACK DECKS
• COVERED STORAGE
• WOODSTOVE REPLACED
• LOFT BEDROOM AREA
• BACK BEDROOM AREA

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoned General Use District - 1

Exterior

• Home design: Single-story property; Residential recreational property
• Exterior features: Approximately 1.85 acres; Located about 7 miles from Nordale boat launch

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/?-bath single-family listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $475 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• Cap rate 12.0% vs local median 4.9% in Badger — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#49 in AK) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Fairbanks North Star Borough School District (urban): math 33% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #10 of 21 in AK (top 48%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Weller Elementary (math 47% / reading 52%, grade D, #55 of 156 statewide, top 37%, 467 students, 32% FRL); Tanana Middle School (math 23% / reading 44%, grade F, #24 of 36 statewide, top 69%, 545 students, 40% FRL); Lathrop High School (math 32% / reading 42%, grade F, #24 of 61 statewide, top 42%, 886 students, 36% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.1%/yr); 248 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1 units permitted in Fairbanks North Star Borough in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fairbanks North Star County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.1% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $99,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.48% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.00%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.38%
• DSCR: 1.91
• GRM: 5.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.08% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.62×
• Total profit: $17,242
• Equity at exit: $14,895

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.42×
• Total profit: $67,558
• Equity at exit: $8,638

Cash invested: $27,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alaska: 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; security deposits capped; courts moderate-paced.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 99705

• Home prices YoY: -21.2%
• Rents YoY: 5.1%
• Active inventory: 248
• Price-to-rent: 5.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,475 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$125 /mo · $1,498/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$310
• Net cashflow: $475

Break-even live

Break-even rent $874

Max offer price $99,900

Occupancy floor 63%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $544	-5% $510	+0% $475	+5% $441	+10% $406
Rent	-10% $359	-5% $417	+0% $475	+5% $533	+10% $592
Rate	-1.0pp $525	-0.5pp $500	base $475	+0.5pp $449	+1.0pp $423

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,975
• Closing costs: $2,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $99,900 Active 5 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,900 Active 4 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,900 Active 3 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,900 Active 2 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   remarks 519-char remark
6. 2026-06-15
   listed $99,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,703
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,596
• − Property taxes: −$1,498
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,416
• − Management: −$1,416
• − Depreciation: −$2,906
• Taxable income: $4,370
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,049
• After-tax cash flow: $4,652/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fairbanks North Star Borough School District
• NCES district ID: 0200600
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $69,697
• Composite: 35.5/100
• National rank: #4915
• State rank: #10 of 21 in AK

Livability — Badger

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #49
• US rank: #15681

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime F Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Badger, AK
• County: Fairbanks North Star Borough · 69,381 people
• City population: 22,281
• Metro: Fairbanks, AK
• Population (ZIP): 21,769
• Household income: $96,964
• Rent vs Own: 23.1% rent · 76.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 237.0

Population outlook (Fairbanks North Star County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 101,607 people
• By 2030: 102,796 · +1.2%
• By 2040: 104,748 · +3.1%
• By 2050: 107,598 · +5.9%
• By 2075: 118,829 · +16.9%
• By 2100: 127,151 · +25.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Two or more races 12% Hispanic / Latino 7% Native American 4% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Portuguese 3% Scottish 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Spanish 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Fairbanks North Star

• 2016 margin: R (+15.2) · D 37.7% · R 52.9% · Other 9.4%
• All cycles: 2016: R+15.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -42.32%
• Current HPI: 157.102
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.08%
• Metro: Fairbanks, AK
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Listed $99,900 GFBR
• 2025-05-13 Listed $99,900 GFBR