4930 W Clarion Ave · Knik-Fairview, AK 99623

$237,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,520 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1983 1.01 ac lot Est $378k · 37% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.2/10.0
• 1% rule +5.9/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Opportunity awaits! This 3-bedroom, 1.75-bath home, built in 1983, sits on 1.1 private acres and offers the perfect opportunity to build equity while creating your own vision. Tucked back from the road with a circular driveway, this property provides privacy, space, and convenience just minutes from Three Bears, shopping, schools, and local amenities (see more/addendums) The front and back yards are beautifully landscaped with established grass, mature plantings, and tiered flower beds, creating a welcoming setting to enjoy Alaska's summer months. A storage shed and ample parking provide plenty of room for RVs, trailers, equipment, and all your Alaska toys. Inside, you'll find a vaulted liv

Key facts

• 1.01 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1983

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage; No carport
• Security: Smoke detector(s); CO detector(s)
• Utilities: Septic tank
• Home design: Residential property; Not newly constructed; Not attached to another unit
• Construction: Wood frame construction (2x6); Built in 1983; Asphalt roof
• Exterior features: Covenant/restrictions on the property; DSL/cable available; Fire service area; Landscaped; Road service area

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Pantry; Laminate counters
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 total bathrooms (1 full bath, 1 three-quarter bath)
• Heating & cooling: Electric
• Interior features: Fireplace; Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Arctic entry; Ceiling fans; CO detector(s); Electric heating (listed as Electric); Family room; Pantry; Smoke detector(s); Telephone connection; Vaulted ceilings; Window coverings; Laminate counters; Tile flooring
• Laundry & utility: Arctic entry (mudroom/utility entry)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $238k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $401 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $238k).
• Cap rate 8.3% vs local median 3.3% in Knik-Fairview — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Matanuska-Susitna Borough School District (town): math 42% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #5 of 21 in AK (top 24%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Goose Bay Elementary (336 students, 42% FRL); Wasilla Middle School (math 30% / reading 46%, grade F, #18 of 36 statewide, top 49%, 610 students, 44% FRL); Wasilla High School (math 22% / reading 27%, grade F, #42 of 61 statewide, top 82%, 848 students, 35% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 31% at this address vs 46% district-wide (-15 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Matanuska-Susitna Borough School District average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.2%/yr); 414 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 91 units permitted in Matanuska-Susitna Borough in 2024 (25 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($89k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Matanuska-Susitna County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $237,500

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.24%
• DSCR: 1.32
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $378,480
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5061 W Clarion Ave	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,442 (-5%)	14mo	$370,000	$257	74
4830 W Clarion Ave	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,687 (+11%)	8mo	$420,000	$249	72
4987 W Mollies Cir	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,486 (-2%)	2mo	$360,000	$242	69
3300 S Claiborne Dr	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,430 (-6%)	17mo	$189,000	$132	64
3460 S Shamrock St	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,504 (-1%)	3mo	$415,000	$276	61
3391 S Shamrock St	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,504 (-1%)	7mo	$410,000	$273	61
3220 S Donovan Dr	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,532 (+1%)	8mo	$345,000	$225	58
5061 W Clayton St	0.12mi	3/1.5	1,696 (+12%)	20mo	$210,000	$124	57
5090 W Northern Rose Ln	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,358 (-11%)	19mo	$375,000	$276	48
3930 S Goose Bay Dr	0.62mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,414 (-7%)	8mo	$190,000	$134	45
3500 S Shamrock St	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,328 (-13%)	1mo	$399,900	$301	44
3800 S Tradewinds Cir	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,678 (+10%)	17mo	$259,000	$154	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.17% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.81×
• Total profit: $-12,444
• Equity at exit: $35,412

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.36×
• Total profit: $24,059
• Equity at exit: $20,535

Cash invested: $66,500 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alaska: 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; security deposits capped; courts moderate-paced.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 99623

• Home prices YoY: -19.6%
• Rents YoY: 3.2%
• Active inventory: 414
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,586 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,245
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$297 /mo · $3,562/yr
• Insurance: −$99
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$543
• Net cashflow: $401

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,078

Max offer price $237,500

Occupancy floor 79%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,375
• Closing costs: $7,125
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4750 W Kaylee River Cir Wasilla, AK	3.0	2.5	1932	$2,895	$1.50	13d	1	0.23mi
4330 W Overby St Wasilla, AK	3.0	2.5	1520	$2,995	$1.97	13d	1	0.52mi
4980 Kelsi Loop Unit 1 Wasilla, AK	3.0	2.0	1300	$2,350	$1.81	23d	1	0.69mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $237,500 Active 2 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   remarks 699-char remark
3. 2026-06-16
   listed $237,500 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,027
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,304
• − Property taxes: −$3,562
• − Insurance: −$1,188
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,482
• − Management: −$2,482
• − Depreciation: −$6,909
• Taxable income: $1,100
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$264
• After-tax cash flow: $4,552/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Matanuska-Susitna Borough School District
• NCES district ID: 0200510
• Math proficiency: 42% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $70,325
• Composite: 41.38/100
• National rank: #3484
• State rank: #5 of 21 in AK

Livability — Knik-Fairview

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Knik-Fairview, AK
• County: Matanuska Susitna Borough · 100,174 people
• Metro: Anchorage, AK
• Population (ZIP): 23,424
• Household income: $88,799
• Rent vs Own: 18.0% rent · 82.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 285.0

Population outlook (Matanuska-Susitna County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 126,730 people
• By 2030: 139,641 · +10.2%
• By 2040: 165,122 · +30.3%
• By 2050: 189,697 · +49.7%
• By 2075: 249,959 · +97.2%
• By 2100: 288,077 · +127.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Two or more races 10% Native American 8% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 3% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 3% Romanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Matanuska-Susitna

• 2016 margin: R (+15.2) · D 37.7% · R 52.9% · Other 9.4%
• All cycles: 2016: R+15.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -48.82%
• Current HPI: 200.2242
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.17%
• Metro: Anchorage, AK
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Listed $237,500 AKMLS