43710 W Elm Dr · Maricopa, AZ 85138

$299,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,686 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 71 Days on market

Built 2002 5,055 sqft lot $178/sqft · 11% below area Est $335k · 11% under $52/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.3/15.0
• Cash flow +7.8/30.0
• Appreciation +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• DSCR +1.9/10.0
• 1% rule +1.6/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Lovely single-story home in a growing Maricopa neighborhood, with easy access in and out from the sought-after Rancho El Dorado area, blending modern updates with a private backyard oasis. The interior shines with fresh paint, a new kitchen backsplash, and recent appliances under a year old. The true highlight is the primary suite, now featuring a private separate entrance and elegant French doors that open directly to the patio. Step outside to a custom sitting wall overlooking a backyard built for entertaining, complete with a built-in grill station perfect for relaxing weekends with family and friends. With a versatile flex room for a home office and seamless indoor-outdoor flow, this home offers a level of comfort and privacy that's hard to find.

Key facts

• Separate entrance
• Custom sitting wall
• Primary suite

Tags

• PRIVATE BACKYARD OASIS
• PRIMARY SUITE
• SEPARATE ENTRANCE
• FRENCH DOORS
• CUSTOM SITTING WALL
• BUILT-IN GRILL STATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-327 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $242k (19.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $198k (33.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $198k (33.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 3.7% in Maricopa — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#28 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, employment A-, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Maricopa Unified School District (4441) (town): math 20% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #128 of 249 in AZ (top 51%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Santa Rosa Elementary School (math 32% / reading 37%, grade F, #471 of 1,109 statewide, top 44%, 486 students, 50% FRL); Desert Wind Middle School (math 14% / reading 26%, grade F, #127 of 218 statewide, top 60%, 817 students, 52% FRL) — zoned schools at 51% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.8%/yr); 862 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 9,504 units permitted in Pinal County in 2024 (776 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-0.9%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 71 days — a 6% lower offer ($282k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 9 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $75k; list at $300k implies a 300% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $198,430 (33.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 71 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 34% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.66% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.99%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.67%
• DSCR: 0.79
• GRM: 12.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $335,344
• List price: $299,900
• Delta: -10.57%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
43626 W Colby Dr	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,684 (-0%)	1mo	$298,499	$177	94
43343 W Chisholm Dr	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,604 (-5%)	1mo	$330,000	$206	81
21563 N Greenway Rd	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,624 (-4%)	2mo	$335,000	$206	76
21221 N Jubilee Pl	0.56mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,694 (+0%)	0mo	$345,990	$204	68
44106 W Kramer Ln	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,631 (-3%)	0mo	$261,250	$160	63
21171 N Jubilee Pl	0.58mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,614 (-4%)	2mo	$327,445	$203	59
44114 W Venture Ln	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,530 (-9%)	2mo	$280,000	$183	58
44729 W Alamendras St	0.72mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,754 (+4%)	2mo	$265,000	$151	53
42671 W Anne Ln	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,527 (-9%)	2mo	$305,000	$200	52
43843 W Roth Rd	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,885 (+12%)	1mo	$385,000	$204	50
44188 W Cydnee Dr	0.50mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,917 (+14%)	1mo	$287,000	$150	48
21197 N Jubilee Pl	0.57mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,906 (+13%)	1mo	$347,200	$182	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.89% appreciation · 1.78% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-44,350
• Equity at exit: $74,012

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-49,362
• Equity at exit: $79,107

Cash invested: $83,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85138

• Home prices YoY: -0.3%
• Rents YoY: 1.8%
• Active inventory: 862
• Price-to-rent: 12.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,984 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$145 /mo · $1,735/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$52
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$417
• Net cashflow: $-327

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,398

Max offer price $242,194

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-157	-5% $-242	+0% $-327	+5% $-412	+10% $-496
Rent	-10% $-483	-5% $-405	+0% $-327	+5% $-248	+10% $-170
Rate	-1.0pp $-176	-0.5pp $-250	base $-327	+0.5pp $-404	+1.0pp $-483

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,975
• Closing costs: $8,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
43683 W Elm Dr Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1124	$1,665	$1.48	7d	1	0.06mi
43839 W Rio Grande Dr Maricopa, AZ	2.0	2.0	1462	$1,650	$1.13	7d	1	0.11mi
43878 W Wade Dr Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1685	$1,750	$1.04	4d	1	0.15mi
21552 N Duncan Dr Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1701	$1,825	$1.07	0d	1	0.15mi
21338 N Keystone Dr Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1276	$1,475	$1.16	45d	1	0.17mi
43854 W Cahill Dr Unit 1545679P Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1689	$2,258	$1.34	16d	1	0.17mi
21426 N Duncan Dr Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1241	$1,599	$1.29	45d	1	0.19mi
43697 W Sagebrush Trl Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.5	1981	$1,600	$0.81	26d	1	0.22mi
21563 N Greenway Rd Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1625	$3,200	$1.97	0d	1	0.33mi
43207 W Lindgren Dr Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1907	$1,699	$0.89	45d	1	0.41mi
22257 N Gibson Dr Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.5	1806	$1,795	$0.99	26d	1	0.45mi
22257 N Gibson Dr Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.5	1806	$1,795	$0.99	45d	1	0.45mi
22257 N Gibson Dr Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.5	1806	$1,795	$0.99	22d	1	0.45mi
21061 N Bustos Way Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1907	$1,749	$0.92	45d	1	0.46mi
21047 N Alma Dr Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1628	$1,995	$1.23	45d	1	0.49mi
44212 W Cydnee Dr Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1441	$1,700	$1.18	45d	1	0.55mi
20793 N Marquez Dr Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1441	$1,550	$1.08	45d	1	0.55mi
22641 N Gibson Dr Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	2169	$1,699	$0.78	46d	1	0.66mi
43205 W Roth Rd Maricopa, AZ	4.0	2.0	2215	$2,200	$0.99	45d	1	0.69mi
43205 W Roth Rd Maricopa, AZ	4.0	2.0	2216	$2,100	$0.95	12d	1	0.69mi
43914 W Adobe Cir Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	2168	$2,070	$0.95	45d	1	0.70mi
22156 N Sunset Dr Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	2112	$2,100	$0.99	0d	1	0.70mi
43849 W Kramer Ln Maricopa, AZ	4.0	2.0	1870	$1,895	$1.01	19d	1	0.72mi
43194 W Sunland Dr Maricopa, AZ	4.0	2.0	1937	$1,850	$0.96	16d	1	0.73mi
43332 W Griffis Dr Maricopa, AZ	4.0	2.0	2235	$4,200	$1.88	45d	1	0.74mi
19696 N Madison Dr Maricopa, AZ	4.0	2.5	2219	$3,400	$1.53	26d	1	0.75mi
44812 W Paraiso Ln Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1413	$1,595	$1.13	5d	1	0.76mi
44171 W Adobe Cir Maricopa, AZ	4.0	2.0	2160	$2,100	$0.97	0d	1	0.80mi
44871 W Gavilan Dr Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1277	$1,595	$1.25	4d	1	0.88mi
42780 W Sunland Dr Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1489	$1,700	$1.14	25d	1	0.89mi
44456 W Eddie Way Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1679	$1,695	$1.01	46d	1	0.91mi
42706 W Hillman Dr Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.5	2185	$1,855	$0.85	5d	1	0.95mi
21619 N Van Loo Dr Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1938	$3,500	$1.81	4d	1	0.98mi
42622 W Hillman Dr Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.5	1819	$2,099	$1.15	18d	1	0.99mi
45192 W Alamendras St Maricopa, AZ	3.0	1.5	1461	$1,600	$1.10	26d	1	1.01mi
22303 Bishop Dr Unit 1545930P Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1496	$3,871	$2.59	14d	1	1.02mi
22306 N Van Loo Dr Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1918	$2,100	$1.09	6d	1	1.05mi
45023 W Miramar Rd Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1653	$3,000	$1.81	45d	1	1.07mi
43368 W Palmen Dr Maricopa, AZ	4.0	2.5	2200	$1,889	$0.86	45d	1	1.08mi
42416 W Heavenly Pl Maricopa, AZ	2.0	2.0	1542	$1,850	$1.20	45d	1	1.11mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $52 · $624/yr

Listing history 38 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $299,900 Active 71 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $299,900 Active 68 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $299,900 Active 67 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $299,900 Active 66 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $299,900 Active 65 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,900 Active 63 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $299,900 Active 62 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $315,000 Active 59 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $315,000 Active 58 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $315,000 Active 57 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $315,000 Active 54 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $315,000 Active 53 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $315,000 Active 52 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $315,000 Active 51 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $315,000 Active 50 DOM
16. 2026-04-11
    listed $315,000 Active 766-char remark

    Show marketing remark (766 chars)

    Lovely single-story home in a growing Maricopa neighborhood, with easy access in and out from the sought-after Rancho El Dorado area, blending modern updates with a private backyard oasis. The interior shines with fresh paint, a new kitchen backsplash, and recent appliances under a year old. The true highlight is the primary suite, now featuring a private separate entrance and elegant French doors that open directly to the patio. Step outside to a custom sitting wall overlooking a backyard built for entertaining, complete with a built-in grill station perfect for relaxing weekends with family and friends. With a versatile flex room for a home office and seamless indoor-outdoor flow, this home offers a level of comfort and privacy that's hard to find.

17. 2026-02-12
    historical
18. 2025-11-03
    price $315,000
19. 2025-09-19
    listed $325,000 Active
20. 2015-06-30
    historical
21. 2015-06-05
    listed $135,000 Active
22. 2015-05-02
    historical
23. 2015-04-27
    listed $135,000 Active
24. 2011-03-14
    soldstatus $75,000 Closed
25. 2011-02-20
    status Pending
26. 2011-02-14
    status Active
27. 2011-02-09
    status Pending
28. 2011-01-12
    price $77,500
29. 2010-12-13
    price $79,900
30. 2010-11-11
    listed $87,900 Active
31. 2008-05-09
    historical
32. 2006-11-20
    listed $214,000
33. 2004-08-19
    soldstatus $148,900
34. 2004-08-19
    soldstatus $148,900
35. 2004-07-08
    historical
36. 2004-05-15
    listed $149,900
37. 2004-05-15
    historical
38. 2004-03-11
    listed $154,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,735 · $145/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,979 · $165/mo
• Expected delta: +$244/yr (+$20/mo · 14.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥114°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,812
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,799
• − Property taxes: −$1,735
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,905
• − Management: −$1,905
• − HOA: −$624
• − Depreciation: −$8,724
• Taxable loss: −$9,380
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,251
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,669/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Maricopa Unified School District (4441)
• NCES district ID: 0404720
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $63,725
• Composite: 22.92/100
• National rank: #7993
• State rank: #128 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Maricopa

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #28
• US rank: #5943

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime B+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Maricopa, AZ
• County: Pinal County · 399,947 people
• City population: 76,044
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 55,260
• Household income: $95,867
• Rent vs Own: 17.7% rent · 82.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 432.0

Population outlook (Pinal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 437,574 people
• By 2030: 446,903 · +2.1%
• By 2040: 452,589 · +3.4%
• By 2050: 444,126 · +1.5%
• By 2075: 430,300 · -1.7%
• By 2100: 393,536 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Hispanic / Latino 30% Two or more races 17% Black 13% Native American 3% Asian 3% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pinal

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.1) · D 38.5% · R 60.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.6pp toward R · 2008: -14.5pp · 2024: -22.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.1 2020: R+17.3 2016: R+19.3 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+14.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.89%
• Current HPI: 258.1461
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.78%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+103.4% since first listed

23 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-11 Listed $315,000 ARMLS
• 2026-02-12 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2025-11-03 Price Changed $315,000 ARMLS
• 2025-09-19 Listed $325,000 ARMLS
• 2015-06-30 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2015-06-05 Listed $135,000 ARMLS
• 2015-05-02 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2015-04-27 Listed $135,000 ARMLS
• 2011-03-14 Sold (MLS) $75,000 ARMLS
• 2011-02-20 Pending — ARMLS
• 2011-02-14 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2011-02-09 Pending — ARMLS
• 2011-01-12 Price Changed $77,500 ARMLS
• 2010-12-13 Price Changed $79,900 ARMLS
• 2010-11-11 Listed $87,900 ARMLS
• 2008-05-09 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2006-11-20 Listed $214,000 ARMLS
• 2004-08-19 Sold (Public Records) $148,900 Public Records
• 2004-08-19 Sold (MLS) $148,900 ARMLS
• 2004-07-08 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2004-05-15 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2004-05-15 Listed $149,900 ARMLS
• 2004-03-11 Listed $154,900 ARMLS

Property tax history

-0.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,735 · +3.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.