Dowing Plan · New Braunfels, TX 78130

$254,999

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,850 sqft · SingleFamily · 60 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.0/30.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• 1% rule +1.3/10.0
• DSCR +0.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This new four-bedroom home offers convenient single-story living. A bedroom is secluded near the front of the home, leading to an inviting and spacious open-concept layout shared between the kitchen, dining room and family room. Three additional bedrooms are tucked away to the side for improved comfort and privacy, including the lavish owner's suite at the back of the home with a full bathroom and walk-in closet.

Key facts

• Lavish owner's suite
• Single-story living
• Full bathroom

Tags

• SINGLE-STORY LIVING
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• LAVISH OWNER'S SUITE
• FULL BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: List price $254,999; Address: New Braunfels, TX (1907 Longspur)

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces; 2-car garage
• Home design: New construction plan named Dowing; Single-family home (plan)
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1850

Interior

• Kitchen: Standard kitchen (plan details)
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms
• Interior features: Open living area

🏗️ New construction. The $254,999 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $315,499.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $255k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-603 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $228k (10.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $200k (21.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $200k (21.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#9 in TX, #925 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute F.
• New Braunfels ISD (urban): math 47% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #157 of 826 in TX (top 19%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Walnut Springs El (math 42% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,335 of 4,322 statewide, top 33%, 312 students, 45% FRL); New Braunfels Middle (math 44% / reading 46%, grade D, #479 of 1,662 statewide, top 29%, 1,301 students, 44% FRL); New Braunfels H S (math 53% / reading 10%, grade F, #1,073 of 1,632 statewide, top 66%, 1,926 students, 32% FRL) — zoned schools at 41% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.0%/yr); 1931 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,420 units permitted in Comal County in 2024 (1,164 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Comal County population projected at +70% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 60 days — a 3% lower offer ($247k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $199,629 (21.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 60 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.63% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.00%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.19%
• DSCR: 0.64
• GRM: 13.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $315,499
• List price: $254,999
• Delta: -19.18%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2931 Daisy Mdw	0.40mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,874 (+1%)	1mo	$279,000	$149	73
1919 Bonelli Eagle	0.40mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,891 (+2%)	1mo	$269,999	$143	72
2942 Daisy Mdw	0.42mi	4/2.0	1,742 (-6%)	2mo	$255,000	$146	69
851 Noel Frst	0.45mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,809 (-2%)	2mo	$289,900	$160	69
1712 Pahmeyer Path	0.37mi	4/2.0	2,000 (+8%)	1mo	$325,000	$163	69
1759 Loma Verde Dr	0.58mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,941 (+5%)	0mo	$339,500	$175	60
1436 Devin Dr	0.75mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,845 (-0%)	1mo	$349,000	$189	59
2982 Daisy Mdw	0.53mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,974 (+7%)	2mo	$320,000	$162	57
851 Highland	0.68mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,913 (+3%)	3mo	$294,900	$154	55
3132 Morlanga St	0.71mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,920 (+4%)	2mo	$364,000	$190	54
1938 Spotted Owl	0.66mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,017 (+9%)	1mo	$250,000	$124	49
1609 Sunstone	0.68mi	4/2.5	2,056 (+11%)	2mo	$275,000	$134	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -34.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.08×
• Total profit: $-95,367
• Equity at exit: $47,042

10-year hold

• IRR: -65.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.75×
• Total profit: $-155,007
• Equity at exit: $27,279

Cash invested: $88,340 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78130

• Rents YoY: -2.0%
• Active inventory: 1931
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,996 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,655
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$394 /mo · $4,732/yr
• Insurance: −$131
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$419
• Net cashflow: $-603

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,760

Max offer price $228,204

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-385	-5% $-494	+0% $-603	+5% $-712	+10% $-821
Rent	-10% $-761	-5% $-682	+0% $-603	+5% $-524	+10% $-446
Rate	-1.0pp $-444	-0.5pp $-523	base $-603	+0.5pp $-685	+1.0pp $-768

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,875
• Closing costs: $9,465
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1920 Bonelli Eagle New Braunfels, TX	4.0	3.0	2142	$2,045	$0.95	13d	1	0.40mi
2126 Jasons West Ct New Braunfels, TX	4.0	3.5	2431	$2,199	$0.90	23d	1	0.40mi
2018 Reserve Way New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.0	2023	$2,795	$1.38	18d	1	0.41mi
1666 Lantana Cir New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1502	$1,745	$1.16	45d	1	0.47mi
2014 Rueben Rd New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.5	1380	$1,595	$1.16	45d	1	0.48mi
2028 Rueben Rd New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.5	1380	$1,595	$1.16	5d	1	0.49mi
2207 Allison Dr New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.0	1850	$1,745	$0.94	14d	1	0.52mi
2960 Nicholas Cv New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	2000	$2,000	$1.00	0d	1	0.56mi
1632 Sunnycrest Cir New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1371	$1,625	$1.19	19d	1	0.60mi
1911 Kallijo Ln New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1552	$1,800	$1.16	18d	1	0.63mi
1611 Sunnycrest Cir New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1779	$1,995	$1.12	6d	1	0.67mi
1648 Sunfire Cir New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1299	$1,850	$1.42	45d	1	0.70mi
1972 Bluethroat New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1560	$1,795	$1.15	45d	1	0.74mi
3161 Birch Bnd New Braunfels, TX	4.0	3.0	2622	$2,500	$0.95	3d	1	0.77mi
1973 Bluethroat New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1458	$1,750	$1.20	18d	1	0.77mi
772 Vista Pkwy New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.0	1536	$1,750	$1.14	25d	1	0.80mi
1908 Tanger Ter New Braunfels, TX	3.0	3.0	1762	$1,900	$1.08	16d	1	0.80mi
1908 Tanger Ter New Braunfels, TX	3.0	3.0	1762	$1,900	$1.08	14d	1	0.80mi
1908 Tanger Ter New Braunfels, TX	3.0	3.0	1762	$1,900	$1.08	25d	1	0.80mi
410 S Water Ln New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.0	1963	$1,900	$0.97	45d	1	0.81mi
419 Aaron Ln New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.0	1940	$1,750	$0.90	25d	1	0.81mi
2060 Meadow Pipit New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1917	$1,950	$1.02	6d	1	0.82mi
1614 Sun Canyon Blvd New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.5	2152	$2,200	$1.02	25d	1	0.84mi
3200 Falconhead New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.5	2076	$2,500	$1.20	0d	1	0.88mi
1906 Fieldfare New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1454	$1,775	$1.22	25d	1	0.91mi
2700 Farm to Market Road 1044 Unit 3-3x New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.5	1490	$1,611	$1.08	6d	1	0.91mi
2700 Farm to Market Road 1044 Unit 4x New Braunfels, TX	4.0	3.5	1776	$1,780	$1.00	6d	1	0.91mi
341 Untermaier St New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.5	1380	$1,475	$1.07	25d	1	0.94mi
340 Untermaier St Canyon Lake, TX	3.0	2.5	1380	$1,495	$1.08	45d	1	0.95mi
1302 S Mesquite Ave New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1426	$1,775	$1.24	25d	1	0.96mi
2712 Scarlet Tanger New Braunfels, TX	4.0	3.0	2445	$2,295	$0.94	45d	1	0.97mi
316 Loma Vista St Unit 316 New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1650	$1,350	$0.82	45d	1	0.98mi
320 Untermaier St Canyon Lake, TX	3.0	2.5	1380	$1,495	$1.08	45d	1	0.98mi
314 Loma Vista St New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1650	$1,350	$0.82	45d	1	0.99mi
314 Loma Vista St New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1650	$1,350	$0.82	16d	1	0.99mi
1898 Baron Dr New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1593	$1,950	$1.22	45d	1	0.99mi
1213 Camellia Ln New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.0	1701	$2,400	$1.41	25d	1	1.02mi
2271 Garden Sun Pl New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.0	2055	$2,200	$1.07	14d	1	1.04mi
3027 Pine Valley Dr New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1406	$1,500	$1.07	45d	1	1.05mi
2169 Hazelwood New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.5	2216	$2,300	$1.04	6d	1	1.05mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $254,999 Active 60 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $254,999 Active 57 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $254,999 Active 56 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $254,999 Active 55 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $254,999 Active 54 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $254,999 Active 52 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $254,999 Active 48 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $254,999 Active 47 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $254,999 Active 46 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $254,999 Active 43 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $254,999 Active 42 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $254,999 Active 41 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $254,999 Active 40 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $254,999 Active 39 DOM
15. 2026-05-09
    price $254,999 416-char remark
16. 2026-05-07
    price $255,999 416-char remark
17. 2026-04-28
    price $258,999 416-char remark
18. 2026-04-22
    listed $263,999 Active 416-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,955
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,673
• − Property taxes: −$4,732
• − Insurance: −$1,577
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,916
• − Management: −$1,916
• − Depreciation: −$9,178
• Taxable loss: −$13,038
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,129
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,110/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: New Braunfels ISD
• NCES district ID: 4832370
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $60,945
• Composite: 43.81/100
• National rank: #2931
• State rank: #157 of 826 in TX

Livability — New Braunfels

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #9
• US rank: #925

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute F Cost of living A Crime A- Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: New Braunfels, TX
• County: Comal County · 206,262 people
• City population: 144,962
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 104,009
• Household income: $83,064
• Rent vs Own: 34.1% rent · 65.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 2912.0

Population outlook (Comal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 175,637 people
• By 2030: 199,911 · +13.8%
• By 2040: 249,436 · +42.0%
• By 2050: 299,430 · +70.5%
• By 2075: 423,857 · +141.3%
• By 2100: 512,048 · +191.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (58%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Hispanic / Latino 37% Two or more races 19% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 32%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 20% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Comal

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.9pp toward D · 2008: -47.4pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+42.7 2016: R+50.1 2012: R+54.1 2008: R+47.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -190.61%
• Current HPI: 173.7128
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.97%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B