928 Lincoln Ave · Rockford, IL 61102

$59,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 900 sqft · SingleFamily · 102 Days on market

Built 1900 2,614 sqft lot $66/sqft · 31% below area Est $86k · 31% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

GREAT PRICE FOR A SINGLE FAMILY HOME. THIS HOME HAS AN UNFINSIHED BASEMENT, GARAGE AND FRONT PORCH. GRESAT POTENTIAL TO RESTORE IT. OWNER IS A LICENSED AGENT. SOLD AS-IS.

Key facts

• 2,614 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1900

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $59k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $495 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $59k).
• Recommended offer: $54k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.4% vs local median 6.1% in Rockford — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#876 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Rockford SD 205 (urban): math 12% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #533 of 620 in IL (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 69 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 285 units permitted in Winnebago County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $408 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Winnebago County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 102 days — a 9% lower offer ($54k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (20%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $22k; list at $59k implies a 168% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price; built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $53,690 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 102 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 35.96%
• DSCR: 2.60
• GRM: 4.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $85,610
• List price: $59,000
• Delta: -31.08%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1007 Island Ave	0.06mi	3/1.0	907 (+1%)	14mo	$86,500	$95	84
807 Indiana Ave	0.23mi	3/1.0	936 (+4%)	6mo	$134,900	$144	78
2305 Rose Ave	0.39mi	2/1.0 (-1)	870 (-3%)	13mo	$95,000	$109	61
2215 S Holland St	0.29mi	3/1.0	960 (+7%)	24mo	$99,000	$103	56
1012 S Independence Ave	0.55mi	3/1.0	974 (+8%)	14mo	$75,000	$77	49
1211 S Independence Ave	0.44mi	2/1.0 (-1)	840 (-7%)	18mo	$85,000	$101	48
1807 Genoa St	0.65mi	2/1.0 (-1)	935 (+4%)	17mo	$125,000	$134	44
513 Lincoln Ave	0.35mi	2/1.0 (-1)	784 (-13%)	20mo	$28,500	$36	40
1223 S Main St	0.63mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,029 (+14%)	14mo	$70,000	$68	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 31.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.33×
• Total profit: $22,033
• Equity at exit: $8,797

10-year hold

• IRR: 38.9%
• Equity multiple: 4.63×
• Total profit: $60,034
• Equity at exit: $5,101

Cash invested: $16,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 61102

• Home prices YoY: -33.1%
• Active inventory: 69
• Price-to-rent: 4.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,228 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$309
• Tax from tax record: −$141 /mo · $1,696/yr
• Insurance: −$25
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$258
• Net cashflow: $495

Break-even live

Break-even rent $602

Max offer price $59,000

Occupancy floor 55%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $14,750
• Closing costs: $1,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1229 S Church St Unit 2 Rockford, IL	3.0	1.0	1096	$1,300	$1.19	43d	1	0.57mi
2208 Christina St Rockford, IL	2.0	1.0	700	$1,300	$1.86	21d	1	1.12mi
1826 Green St Rockford, IL	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,300	$1.30	21d	1	1.23mi
611 15th Ave Unit 2 Rockford, IL	2.0	1.0	806	$1,350	$1.67	43d	1	1.26mi
810 15th Ave Unit 810-3 Rockford, IL	2.0	1.0	1000	$995	$0.99	21d	1	1.43mi
810 15th Ave Unit 810-1 Rockford, IL	2.0	1.0	1000	$995	$0.99	43d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $59,000 Active 102 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $59,000 Active 101 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   price $59,000 Active 100 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $69,000 Active 100 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $69,000 Active 99 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $69,000 Active 98 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $69,000 Active 96 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $69,000 Active 95 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $69,000 Active 93 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $69,000 Active 92 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $69,000 Active 91 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $69,000 Active 90 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $69,000 Active 86 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $69,000 Active 85 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $69,000 Active 84 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $69,000 Active 83 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $69,000 Active 82 DOM
18. 2026-05-15
    status Active 170-char remark

    Show marketing remark (170 chars)

    GREAT PRICE FOR A SINGLE FAMILY HOME. THIS HOME HAS AN UNFINSIHED BASEMENT, GARAGE AND FRONT PORCH. GRESAT POTENTIAL TO RESTORE IT. OWNER IS A LICENSED AGENT. SOLD AS-IS.

19. 2026-05-01
    status Pending 170-char remark

    Show marketing remark (170 chars)

    GREAT PRICE FOR A SINGLE FAMILY HOME. THIS HOME HAS AN UNFINSIHED BASEMENT, GARAGE AND FRONT PORCH. GRESAT POTENTIAL TO RESTORE IT. OWNER IS A LICENSED AGENT. SOLD AS-IS.

20. 2026-04-10
    price $69,000 170-char remark

    Show marketing remark (170 chars)

    GREAT PRICE FOR A SINGLE FAMILY HOME. THIS HOME HAS AN UNFINSIHED BASEMENT, GARAGE AND FRONT PORCH. GRESAT POTENTIAL TO RESTORE IT. OWNER IS A LICENSED AGENT. SOLD AS-IS.

21. 2026-02-24
    listed $74,000 Active 170-char remark

    Show marketing remark (170 chars)

    GREAT PRICE FOR A SINGLE FAMILY HOME. THIS HOME HAS AN UNFINSIHED BASEMENT, GARAGE AND FRONT PORCH. GRESAT POTENTIAL TO RESTORE IT. OWNER IS A LICENSED AGENT. SOLD AS-IS.

22. 1989-12-08
    soldstatus $22,000
23. 1989-12-08
    soldstatus $22,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,696 · $141/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,696 · $141/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,740
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,305
• − Property taxes: −$1,696
• − Insurance: −$295
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,179
• − Management: −$1,179
• − Depreciation: −$1,716
• Taxable income: $5,370
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,289
• After-tax cash flow: $4,652/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rockford SD 205
• NCES district ID: 1734510
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 16% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $42,533
• Composite: 12.21/100
• National rank: #9649
• State rank: #533 of 620 in IL

Livability — Rockford

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #876
• US rank: #17035

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rockford, IL
• City population: 147,297
• Population (ZIP): 16,620

Population outlook (Winnebago County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 271,080 people
• By 2030: 260,684 · -3.8%
• By 2040: 238,405 · -12.1%
• By 2050: 216,129 · -20.3%
• By 2075: 172,882 · -36.2%
• By 2100: 135,336 · -50.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 36% Black 33% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 15%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 23%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 2% Iranian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 18%

Political lean MEDSL · Winnebago

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 49.0% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.2pp toward R · 2008: 12.8pp · 2024: 0.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.6 2020: D+2.5 2016: R+1.2 2012: D+5.7 2008: D+12.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -93.81%
• Current HPI: 189.9634
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+213.6% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Relisted — NWIAR
• 2026-05-01 Pending — NWIAR
• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $69,000 NWIAR
• 2026-02-24 Listed $74,000 NWIAR
• 1989-12-08 Sold (Public Records) $22,000 Public Records
• 1989-12-08 Sold (Public Records) $22,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.6%/yr

Latest (2024): $1,696 · +3.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.