20 Oneil Cir · Monroe, NY 10950

$550,000

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,220 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 49 Days on market

Built 1976 9,720 sqft lot $248/sqft · 14% below area Est $642k · 14% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.6/30.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 20 O’Neil Circle! A beautifully maintained 5-bedroom home nestled on a desirable cul-de-sac, offering a unique and versatile floor plan perfect for today’s lifestyle. Step inside to discover a warm and inviting layout featuring both a spacious living room and a cozy family room with custom built-ins & gas stove, ideal for relaxing or entertaining. The dining area flows seamlessly into the kitchen, which boasts ceramic flooring, crisp white cabinetry, granite countertops, and a convenient pantry. Designed with comfort and convenience in mind, the first-floor primary bedroom includes a private half-bath ensuite, making one-level living a breeze. A second generous

Key facts

• 9,720 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1976

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; 1-car garage
• Utilities: Public sewer; Electric service by Orange & Rockland; Underground utilities
• Home design: Single family residence; Two levels
• Construction: Frame construction; Block foundation
• Exterior features: Back yard; Level lot; Back yard fencing; Patio; Porch; Screened porch

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Refrigerator; Granite counters
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom located downstairs
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile; Wood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom; First-floor full bath; Ceiling fans; Granite counters; Primary bathroom; Master bedroom on main level; Walk-in closets; Washer/dryer hookup; Patio, porch and screened porch
• Laundry & utility: Laundry area in kitchen; Washer/dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $550k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-656 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $434k (21.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $445k (19.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $434k (21.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 3.3% in Monroe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#351 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Monroe-Woodbury Central School District (suburban): math 50% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #250 of 590 in NY (top 42%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Pine Tree Elementary School (math 43% / reading 48%, grade D-, #1,271 of 2,108 statewide, top 60%, 786 students, 42% FRL); Monroe-Woodbury Middle School (math 28% / reading 50%, grade F, #433 of 729 statewide, top 60%, 1,584 students, 40% FRL); Monroe-Woodbury High School (math 98% / reading 95%, grade A+, #56 of 1,100 statewide, top 5%, 2,353 students, 33% FRL) — zoned schools average 38% FRL vs 15% district-wide (24 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 322 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,746 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (1,265 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,454/mo this rent would consume 68% of the median local household income ($79k/yr) (locally 3149% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $16k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 49 days — a 3% lower offer ($534k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $76k; list at $550k implies a 624% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $434,057 (21.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 49 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.86%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.11%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $642,425
• List price: $550,000
• Delta: -14.39%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
46 Moulton Cir	0.18mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,270 (+2%)	1mo	$625,000	$275	78
21 Winchester Dr	0.60mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,129 (-4%)	20mo	$622,000	$292	41
20 Forestdale Ave	0.58mi	4/2.5 (-1)	1,976 (-11%)	10mo	$605,000	$306	39
144 Lakes Rd	0.65mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,030 (-9%)	14mo	$475,000	$234	39
4 Seals Dr	0.68mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,000 (-10%)	8mo	$670,000	$335	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.5% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.11×
• Total profit: $-137,252
• Equity at exit: $82,007

10-year hold

• IRR: -30.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.29×
• Total profit: $-198,508
• Equity at exit: $47,554

Cash invested: $154,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 10950

• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 322
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,454 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,884
• Tax from tax record: −$1,062 /mo · $12,741/yr
• Insurance: −$229
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$935
• Net cashflow: $-656

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,285

Max offer price $434,057

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-345	-5% $-501	+0% $-656	+5% $-812	+10% $-968
Rent	-10% $-1,008	-5% $-832	+0% $-656	+5% $-480	+10% $-304
Rate	-1.0pp $-379	-0.5pp $-516	base $-656	+0.5pp $-799	+1.0pp $-944

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $137,500
• Closing costs: $16,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11 Ethan Cir Monroe, NY	5.0	2.5	1854	$3,800	$2.05	15d	1	0.20mi
4 Millard Cir Monroe, NY	4.0	3.0	2319	$5,200	$2.24	25d	1	0.31mi
9 Summit Pl Monroe, NY	4.0	2.0	1427	$3,300	$2.31	46d	1	0.89mi
7 Brewster Rd Monroe, NY	4.0	2.0	3000	$3,800	$1.27	15d	1	1.01mi
11 Peterson Rd Monroe, NY	4.0	2.5	2988	$4,300	$1.44	25d	1	1.06mi
454 Round Lake Park Rd Monroe, NY	4.0	2.0	1675	$3,900	$2.33	25d	1	1.08mi
80 N Main St Monroe, NY	4.0	2.0	1722	$2,900	$1.68	15d	1	1.09mi
79 Quaker Hill Rd Unit 2 Monroe, NY	5.0	2.0	2084	$3,300	$1.58	45d	1	1.19mi
79 Quaker Hill Rd Monroe, NY	5.0	3.0	2300	$3,300	$1.43	45d	1	1.19mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $550,000 Active 49 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $550,000 Active 46 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $550,000 Active 45 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $550,000 Active 44 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $550,000 Active 43 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $550,000 Active 41 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $550,000 Active 38 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $550,000 Active 37 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $550,000 Active 36 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $550,000 Active 35 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $550,000 Active 32 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $550,000 Active 31 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $550,000 Active 30 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $560,000 Active 29 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $560,000 Active 28 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $560,000 Active 27 DOM
17. 2026-05-04
    listed $575,000 Active 1513-char remark
18. 2026-05-01
    historical $575,000 1513-char remark
19. 1984-09-01
    soldstatus $76,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $12,741 · $1,062/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $12,741 · $1,062/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 74% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 16% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $53,451
• − Mortgage interest: −$30,809
• − Property taxes: −$12,741
• − Insurance: −$2,750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,276
• − Management: −$4,276
• − Depreciation: −$16,000
• Taxable loss: −$17,401
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,176
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,700/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Monroe-Woodbury Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3619650
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $104,681
• Composite: 50.48/100
• National rank: #1855
• State rank: #250 of 590 in NY

Livability — Monroe

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #351
• US rank: #5919

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime B- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Monroe, NY
• County: Orange County · 267,004 people
• City population: 68,136
• Metro: Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY
• Population (ZIP): 68,136
• Household income: $78,931
• Rent vs Own: 38.6% rent · 61.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 3149.0

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 379,830 people
• By 2030: 378,955 · -0.2%
• By 2040: 375,444 · -1.2%
• By 2050: 369,311 · -2.8%
• By 2075: 354,233 · -6.7%
• By 2100: 318,150 · -16.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 6% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 5% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Scandinavian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 33% English-only · German/W. Germanic 52% Spanish 9% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+8.4) · D 45.8% · R 54.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.5pp toward R · 2008: 4.1pp · 2024: -8.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+8.4 2020: R+0.2 2016: R+6.5 2012: D+5.2 2008: D+4.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -309.81%
• Current HPI: 314.2081
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.50%
• Metro: Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+623.7% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Price Changed $550,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-21 Price Changed $560,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-04 Listed $575,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-01 Coming Soon $575,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1984-09-01 Sold (Public Records) $76,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $12,741 · +2.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.