6946 River Birch Rd · Lynchburg, MS 38680

$249,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,484 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 10 Days on market

Built 1991 0.25 ac lot Est $237k · 5% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.9/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +5.1/15.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautifully renovated home with all new vinyl wood flooring and granite countertops. Come check it out today!

Key facts

• Large dining space
• Updated counters
• Two pantries

Tags

• LARGE DINING SPACE
• UPDATED COUNTERS
• TWO PANTRIES
• OVER-SIZED LAUNDRY ROOM
• BACK-PATIO
• HOT TUB SPOT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot approximately 0.25 acre
• HOA & community: Has association

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (2 spaces); Total parking for 6 vehicles
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected
• Home design: Single family house; One story; Move-in ready; Living area measured by appraiser
• Construction: Vinyl exterior; Slab foundation; Built according to assessor records
• Exterior features: Private yard; Asphalt roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Oven; Refrigerator; Garbage disposal
• Bedrooms: One-level home (bedroom levels not specified)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Built-in features; Ceiling fans; Pantry; Fireplace in den and other area

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-20 ($-245/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $246k (1.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $185k (25.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $185k (25.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.9% in Lynchburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#145 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Desoto County School District (suburban): math 48% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #20 of 130 in MS (top 15%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Walls Elementary School (math 24% / reading 26%, grade F, #217 of 375 statewide, top 58%, 718 students, 100% FRL); Lake Cormorant Middle (math 51% / reading 30%, grade F, #60 of 179 statewide, top 37%, 764 students, 100% FRL); Lake Cormorant High (math 29% / reading 42%, grade F, #66 of 197 statewide, top 34%, 969 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 43% district-wide (56 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 51 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,155 units permitted in DeSoto County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($60k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $27k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $25k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• DeSoto County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $70k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 6 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $185,144 (25.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.20%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.35%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $237,440
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6915 Slash Pine Dr	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,509 (+2%)	18mo	$259,000	$172	80
7051 Thornwood Cv	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,506 (+2%)	14mo	$259,000	$172	78
6585 Green Gln	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,568 (+6%)	1mo	$250,000	$159	77
6671 River Birch Rd	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,530 (+3%)	7mo	$219,900	$144	76
6720 Black Thorn Dr	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,434 (-3%)	15mo	$229,900	$160	72
6830 Slash Pine Dr	0.14mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,634 (+10%)	1mo	$215,000	$132	71
6949 Black Oak Dr	0.30mi	3/2.5	1,422 (-4%)	10mo	$235,000	$165	69
6933 Fox Briar Cv	0.17mi	3/1.0	1,362 (-8%)	11mo	$225,000	$165	66
6522 Broken Hickory Cv	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,555 (+5%)	14mo	$245,000	$158	60
6937 Coleman Cv	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,664 (+12%)	15mo	$254,900	$153	47
6627 Lake Forest Dr W	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,658 (+12%)	11mo	$284,999	$172	46
7787 Bailee Ln	0.65mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,700 (+15%)	8mo	$230,000	$135	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.92×
• Total profit: $134,682
• Equity at exit: $225,130

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.3%
• Equity multiple: 6.68×
• Total profit: $397,395
• Equity at exit: $485,501

Cash invested: $69,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 38680

• Home prices YoY: 4.6%
• Active inventory: 51
• Price-to-rent: 11.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,851 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$68 /mo · $821/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$389
• Net cashflow: $-20

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,877

Max offer price $246,300

Occupancy floor 96%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,475
• Closing costs: $7,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6915 Black Thorn Dr Walls, MS	4.0	2.0	1382	$1,655	$1.20	4d	1	0.08mi
6916 Fox Briar Cv Walls, MS	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,600	$1.19	4d	1	0.17mi
6757 River Birch Rd Walls, MS	3.0	2.0	1331	$1,720	$1.29	11d	1	0.20mi
7051 Lake Forest Dr N Walls, MS	3.0	2.0	1551	$1,595	$1.03	43d	1	0.24mi
7787 Bailee Ln Walls, MS	4.0	2.0	1700	$2,000	$1.18	43d	1	0.62mi
6670 Tangleberry Cv Walls, MS	3.0	2.0	1600	$1,770	$1.11	20d	1	0.72mi
6205 Liberty Estates Dr Walls, MS	3.0	2.0	1357	$1,555	$1.15	4d	1	0.92mi
5968 Shannon Dr Horn Lake, MS	3.0	2.0	1374	$1,650	$1.20	20d	1	0.99mi
5859 Shannon Dr Horn Lake, MS	3.0	2.0	1139	$1,523	$1.34	43d	1	1.09mi
7782 Emeline Dr Horn Lake, MS	4.0	2.5	1808	$2,265	$1.25	43d	1	1.32mi
5565 Chapel Hill Dr Horn Lake, MS	3.0	2.0	1114	$1,543	$1.39	1d	1	1.39mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $249,900 Pending 10 DOM
2. 2026-06-10
   days on market $249,900 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $249,900 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $249,900 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $249,900 Active 5 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   remarks 366-char remark
7. 2026-06-02
   listed $249,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $821 · $68/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,974 · $165/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,154/yr (+$96/mo · 140.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 19% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,217
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,998
• − Property taxes: −$821
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,777
• − Management: −$1,777
• − Depreciation: −$7,270
• Taxable loss: −$4,676
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,122
• After-tax cash flow: $878/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Desoto County School District
• NCES district ID: 2801320
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $59,272
• Composite: 39.56/100
• National rank: #3933
• State rank: #20 of 130 in MS

Livability — Lynchburg

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #145
• US rank: #14967

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lynchburg, MS
• County: DeSoto County · 176,513 people
• Metro: Memphis, TN-MS-AR
• Population (ZIP): 6,839
• Household income: $59,503
• Rent vs Own: 31.4% rent · 68.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 229.0

Population outlook (DeSoto County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 203,338 people
• By 2030: 217,692 · +7.1%
• By 2040: 245,320 · +20.6%
• By 2050: 270,133 · +32.8%
• By 2075: 323,341 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 348,742 · +71.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 46% White 42% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 3% Native American 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Serbian 1% British 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 6%

Political lean MEDSL · DeSoto

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.1) · D 36.7% · R 60.8% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.2pp toward D · 2008: -38.2pp · 2024: -24.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.1 2020: R+23.9 2016: R+34.8 2012: R+33.5 2008: R+38.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 10.29%
• Current HPI: 232.28
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Memphis, TN-MS-AR
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+93.0% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Listed $249,900 MLSU
• 2022-09-10 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2022-09-08 Price Changed $229,900 MLSU
• 2022-08-30 Price Changed $239,900 MLSU
• 2022-08-25 Listed $250,000 MLSU
• 2020-04-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-04-09 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2020-03-06 Listed $149,900 MLSU
• 2019-10-30 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2019-10-07 Listed $154,900 MLSU
• 2019-09-30 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2019-09-25 Listed $154,900 MLSU
• 2005-09-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2005-09-02 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2005-03-14 Listed $129,500 MLSU
• 1991-10-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+14.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $821 · +17.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.