619 Confederate St · Liberty, TX 77575

$50,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,700 sqft · Manufactured · 168 Days on market

Built 1974 5,945 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Manufactured home with multiple additions; located in just off of US 90 in Liberty.

Key facts

• Located off us 90
• Manufactured home
• Multiple additions

Tags

• MANUFACTURED HOME
• MULTIPLE ADDITIONS
• LOCATED OFF US 90

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $50k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $657 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $50k).
• Recommended offer: $44k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 32.3% vs local median 4.6% in Liberty — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#489 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: employment D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Liberty ISD (town): math 34% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #464 of 826 in TX (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 222 active listings in the ZIP; 1,321 units permitted in Liberty County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $346 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Liberty County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 168 days — a 12% lower offer ($44k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $44,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 168 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.54% ✓
• Cap rate: 32.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 92.89%
• DSCR: 5.13
• GRM: 2.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 54.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.43×
• Total profit: $34,022
• Equity at exit: $7,455

10-year hold

• IRR: 60.1%
• Equity multiple: 7.04×
• Total profit: $84,614
• Equity at exit: $4,323

Cash invested: $14,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77575

• Home prices YoY: -26.6%
• Active inventory: 222
• Price-to-rent: 2.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,769 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax from tax record: −$31 /mo · $367/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$371
• Net cashflow: $657

Break-even live

Break-even rent $937

Max offer price $50,000

Occupancy floor 58%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,500
• Closing costs: $1,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $50,000 Active 168 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $50,000 Active 167 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $50,000 Active 166 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $50,000 Active 165 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $50,000 Active 163 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $50,000 Active 162 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $50,000 Active 159 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $50,000 Active 158 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $50,000 Active 157 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $50,000 Active 154 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $50,000 Active 153 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $50,000 Active 152 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $50,000 Active 151 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $50,000 Active 150 DOM
15. 2026-01-01
    listed $50,000 Active 83-char remark

    Show marketing remark (83 chars)

    Manufactured home with multiple additions; located in just off of US 90 in Liberty.

16. 2025-06-24
    status Pending
17. 2025-06-10
    status Pending
18. 2025-06-10
    status Option Pending
19. 2025-05-28
    historical
20. 2025-05-19
    listed $48,000 Active
21. 2025-05-18
    historical
22. 2025-02-28
    listed $50,000 Active
23. 2014-08-05
    soldstatus
24. 2014-08-05
    soldstatus
25. 2014-06-12
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $367 · $31/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $915 · $76/mo
• Expected delta: +$548/yr (+$46/mo · 149.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone AE · 67% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,225
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,801
• − Property taxes: −$367
• − Insurance: −$5,368
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,698
• − Management: −$1,698
• − Depreciation: −$1,455
• Taxable income: $7,838
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,881
• After-tax cash flow: $6,005/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Liberty ISD
• NCES district ID: 4827450
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $46,931
• Composite: 32.11/100
• National rank: #5803
• State rank: #464 of 826 in TX

Livability — Liberty

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #489
• US rank: #9688

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Liberty, TX
• City population: 16,617
• Population (ZIP): 16,617

Population outlook (Liberty County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 87,956 people
• By 2030: 92,161 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 100,784 · +14.6%
• By 2050: 109,471 · +24.5%
• By 2075: 133,470 · +51.7%
• By 2100: 147,372 · +67.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Hispanic / Latino 25% Black 12% Two or more races 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 24%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Serbian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 19% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Liberty

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.6) · D 19.0% · R 80.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -43.7pp · 2024: -61.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.6 2020: R+59.7 2016: R+58.0 2012: R+53.3 2008: R+43.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -74.17%
• Current HPI: 204.9372
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-01 Listed $50,000 HARMLS
• 2025-06-24 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-06-10 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-06-10 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-05-28 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-05-19 Listed $48,000 HARMLS
• 2025-05-18 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-02-28 Listed $50,000 HARMLS
• 2014-08-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2014-08-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2014-06-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+11.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $367 · +18.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.