441 Houghton Ave · Marlin, TX 76661

$164,900

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,644 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 122 Days on market

Built 1893 0.75 ac lot $62/sqft · 5% above area Est $157k · 5% over ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.4/30.0
• Appreciation +7.1/10.0
• ARV discount +5.2/15.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Born in 1893, this house has stood the test of time - seen the 19th, 20th, and 21st centuries - and stood tall, strong, and beautiful for every one of them. Now it is ready for your personal touch and finish to exhibit the grandeur that that is 441 Houghton Avenue. This corner-lot Queen Ann Victorian in Marlin has 4 bedrooms, 3 full bathrooms, 2,644 square feet, 3 living areas, 3 fireplaces, tall ceilings, and details that have maintained their grace for 132 years. The widespread wraparound porch, expansive enclosed sunroom patio, and covered parking add options and convince to the timeless design. This house is renovation ready and priced to sell. Schedule your private showing today.

Key facts

• Covered parking
• Corner-lot
• Wraparound porch

Tags

• CORNER-LOT
• WRAPAROUND PORCH
• ENCLOSED SUNROOM PATIO
• COVERED PARKING
• RENOVATION READY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-119 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $144k (12.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $156k (5.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $144k (12.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,146 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime B+, housing B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Marlin ISD (town): math 21% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #779 of 826 in TX (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 84% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Marlin El (math 22% / reading 27%, grade F, #3,052 of 4,322 statewide, top 74%, 474 students, 99% FRL); Marlin Middle (math 22% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,279 of 1,662 statewide, top 78%, 201 students, 100% FRL); Marlin High (math 2% / reading 12%, grade F, #1,612 of 1,632 statewide, top 99%, 243 students, 99% FRL) — zoned schools average 99% FRL vs 84% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 121 active listings in the ZIP; 4 units permitted in Falls County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $7k appreciation (4.2% local appreciation)).
• Falls County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 122 days — a 12% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.0% of price; built in 1893 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 76% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $143,887 (12.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 122 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1893 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.43%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.09%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $156,776
• List price: $164,900
• Delta: 5.18%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
415 Easy St	0.09mi	4/2.5	3,002 (+14%)	2mo	$240,000	$80	69
316 Park Ln	0.69mi	4/3.0	2,960 (+12%)	20mo	$299,000	$101	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.17% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.50×
• Total profit: $22,884
• Equity at exit: $85,255

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.73×
• Total profit: $80,059
• Equity at exit: $140,773

Cash invested: $46,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76661

• Home prices YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 121
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,559 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$417 /mo · $5,003/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$327
• Net cashflow: $-119

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,709

Max offer price $143,887

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-26	-5% $-72	+0% $-119	+5% $-166	+10% $-212
Rent	-10% $-242	-5% $-181	+0% $-119	+5% $-57	+10% $4
Rate	-1.0pp $-36	-0.5pp $-77	base $-119	+0.5pp $-162	+1.0pp $-205

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,225
• Closing costs: $4,947
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $164,900 Active 122 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $164,900 Active 119 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $164,900 Active 118 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $164,900 Active 117 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $164,900 Active 116 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $164,900 Active 114 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $164,900 Active 113 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $164,900 Active 111 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $164,900 Active 110 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $164,900 Active 109 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $164,900 Active 108 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $164,900 Active 104 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $164,900 Active 103 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $164,900 Active 102 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $164,900 Active 101 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $164,900 Active 100 DOM
17. 2026-02-19
    listed $164,900 Active 693-char remark

    Show marketing remark (693 chars)

    Born in 1893, this house has stood the test of time - seen the 19th, 20th, and 21st centuries - and stood tall, strong, and beautiful for every one of them. Now it is ready for your personal touch and finish to exhibit the grandeur that that is 441 Houghton Avenue. This corner-lot Queen Ann Victorian in Marlin has 4 bedrooms, 3 full bathrooms, 2,644 square feet, 3 living areas, 3 fireplaces, tall ceilings, and details that have maintained their grace for 132 years. The widespread wraparound porch, expansive enclosed sunroom patio, and covered parking add options and convince to the timeless design. This house is renovation ready and priced to sell. Schedule your private showing today.

18. 2025-12-31
    historical
19. 2025-07-31
    listed $164,900 Active
20. 2023-08-31
    historical
21. 2022-10-26
    listed $178,500
22. 2003-05-13
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,003 · $417/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,003 · $417/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 76% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,705
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,237
• − Property taxes: −$5,003
• − Insurance: −$824
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,496
• − Management: −$1,496
• − Depreciation: −$4,797
• Taxable loss: −$4,149
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$996
• After-tax cash flow: $-432/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marlin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4829130
• Math proficiency: 21% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 22% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $29,255
• Composite: 17.18/100
• National rank: #9106
• State rank: #779 of 826 in TX

Livability — Marlin

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1146
• US rank: #20161

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Marlin, TX
• Population (ZIP): 7,266

Population outlook (Falls County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 15,782 people
• By 2030: 15,209 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 14,276 · -9.5%
• By 2050: 13,645 · -13.5%
• By 2075: 13,724 · -13.0%
• By 2100: 13,005 · -17.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 35% Hispanic / Latino 30% White 30% Two or more races 13% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 15%

Political lean MEDSL · Falls

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+44.7) · D 27.3% · R 72.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -25.0pp toward R · 2008: -19.7pp · 2024: -44.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+44.7 2020: R+37.1 2016: R+33.6 2012: R+24.4 2008: R+19.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.17%
• Current HPI: 126.9217
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-7.6% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-19 Listed $164,900 NTREIS
• 2025-12-31 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-07-31 Listed $164,900 NTREIS
• 2023-08-31 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2022-10-26 Listed $178,500 NTREIS
• 2003-05-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+8.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,003 · +1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.