919 Old Stage Rd · Church Hill, TN 37642

$229,900

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,944 sqft · Manufactured public records · 292 Days on market

Built 2000 0.58 ac lot $118/sqft · at area comps Est $220k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.2/30.0
• DSCR +8.8/10.0
• 1% rule +5.9/10.0
• ARV discount +5.4/15.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This charming 4 bedroom hide away is the perfect space for a large or growing family! Buyer chooses! Up to $10,000. for new paint and flooring with acceptable offer. The exterior of the home has a beautiful stone foundation, a large front porch, a great back deck for relaxing and entertaining, and a fenced yard that is perfect for kids and pets. The kitchen is outfitted with oak cabinetry that offers an abundance of storage and shares a seamless flow with the adjacent dining area. There is an inviting living room and a separate den that could be utilized as a media room or a playroom for the kids. The home also offers an airy, bright master suite with a large bath and three additional bedrooms with plenty of space and versatility. The outdoor storage building is equipped with plenty of extra space to meet your storage demands and the home s beautiful landscaping gives it a warm, welcoming feel before you ever step through the door. With so much to offer at such an amazing price, what's not to love?

Key facts

• Oak cabinetry
• Fenced yard
• Front porch

Tags

• STONE FOUNDATION
• FRONT PORCH
• BACK DECK
• FENCED YARD
• OAK CABINETRY
• LIVING ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath manufactured listed at $230k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $584 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $230k).
• Recommended offer: $202k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.3% vs local median 3.5% in Church Hill — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#42 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Hawkins County (rural): math 23% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #93 of 139 in TN (top 67%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 110 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 151 units permitted in Hawkins County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hawkins County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $64k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 292 days — a 12% lower offer ($202k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $106k; list at $230k implies a 117% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $202,312 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 292 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.88%
• DSCR: 1.48
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $219,582
• List price: $229,900
• Delta: 4.70%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.00×
• Total profit: $-168
• Equity at exit: $34,279

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.74×
• Total profit: $47,375
• Equity at exit: $19,878

Cash invested: $64,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 37642

• Home prices YoY: -16.0%
• Active inventory: 110
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,500 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax from tax record: −$90 /mo · $1,080/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$525
• Net cashflow: $584

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,761

Max offer price $229,900

Occupancy floor 72%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,475
• Closing costs: $6,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
403 Silver Lake Rd Church Hill, TN	3.0	1.0	1413	$2,500	$1.77	43d	1	1.36mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $229,900 Active 292 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $229,900 Active 291 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $229,900 Active 290 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $229,900 Active 289 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $229,900 Active 288 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $229,900 Active 286 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $229,900 Active 285 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $229,900 Active 283 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $229,900 Active 282 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $229,900 Active 281 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $229,900 Active 280 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $229,900 Active 277 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $229,900 Active 275 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $229,900 Active 274 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $229,900 Active 273 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $229,900 Active 272 DOM
17. 2026-04-01
    status Active 1013-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1013 chars)

    This charming 4 bedroom hide away is the perfect space for a large or growing family! Buyer chooses! Up to $10,000. for new paint and flooring with acceptable offer. The exterior of the home has a beautiful stone foundation, a large front porch, a great back deck for relaxing and entertaining, and a fenced yard that is perfect for kids and pets. The kitchen is outfitted with oak cabinetry that offers an abundance of storage and shares a seamless flow with the adjacent dining area. There is an inviting living room and a separate den that could be utilized as a media room or a playroom for the kids. The home also offers an airy, bright master suite with a large bath and three additional bedrooms with plenty of space and versatility. The outdoor storage building is equipped with plenty of extra space to meet your storage demands and the home s beautiful landscaping gives it a warm, welcoming feel before you ever step through the door. With so much to offer at such an amazing price, what's not to love?

18. 2026-03-31
    historical 1013-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1013 chars)

    This charming 4 bedroom hide away is the perfect space for a large or growing family! Buyer chooses! Up to $10,000. for new paint and flooring with acceptable offer. The exterior of the home has a beautiful stone foundation, a large front porch, a great back deck for relaxing and entertaining, and a fenced yard that is perfect for kids and pets. The kitchen is outfitted with oak cabinetry that offers an abundance of storage and shares a seamless flow with the adjacent dining area. There is an inviting living room and a separate den that could be utilized as a media room or a playroom for the kids. The home also offers an airy, bright master suite with a large bath and three additional bedrooms with plenty of space and versatility. The outdoor storage building is equipped with plenty of extra space to meet your storage demands and the home s beautiful landscaping gives it a warm, welcoming feel before you ever step through the door. With so much to offer at such an amazing price, what's not to love?

19. 2026-01-09
    price $229,900 1013-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1013 chars)

    This charming 4 bedroom hide away is the perfect space for a large or growing family! Buyer chooses! Up to $10,000. for new paint and flooring with acceptable offer. The exterior of the home has a beautiful stone foundation, a large front porch, a great back deck for relaxing and entertaining, and a fenced yard that is perfect for kids and pets. The kitchen is outfitted with oak cabinetry that offers an abundance of storage and shares a seamless flow with the adjacent dining area. There is an inviting living room and a separate den that could be utilized as a media room or a playroom for the kids. The home also offers an airy, bright master suite with a large bath and three additional bedrooms with plenty of space and versatility. The outdoor storage building is equipped with plenty of extra space to meet your storage demands and the home s beautiful landscaping gives it a warm, welcoming feel before you ever step through the door. With so much to offer at such an amazing price, what's not to love?

20. 2025-10-09
    price $259,900 1013-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1013 chars)

    This charming 4 bedroom hide away is the perfect space for a large or growing family! Buyer chooses! Up to $10,000. for new paint and flooring with acceptable offer. The exterior of the home has a beautiful stone foundation, a large front porch, a great back deck for relaxing and entertaining, and a fenced yard that is perfect for kids and pets. The kitchen is outfitted with oak cabinetry that offers an abundance of storage and shares a seamless flow with the adjacent dining area. There is an inviting living room and a separate den that could be utilized as a media room or a playroom for the kids. The home also offers an airy, bright master suite with a large bath and three additional bedrooms with plenty of space and versatility. The outdoor storage building is equipped with plenty of extra space to meet your storage demands and the home s beautiful landscaping gives it a warm, welcoming feel before you ever step through the door. With so much to offer at such an amazing price, what's not to love?

21. 2025-08-30
    listed $269,900 Active 1013-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1013 chars)

    This charming 4 bedroom hide away is the perfect space for a large or growing family! Buyer chooses! Up to $10,000. for new paint and flooring with acceptable offer. The exterior of the home has a beautiful stone foundation, a large front porch, a great back deck for relaxing and entertaining, and a fenced yard that is perfect for kids and pets. The kitchen is outfitted with oak cabinetry that offers an abundance of storage and shares a seamless flow with the adjacent dining area. There is an inviting living room and a separate den that could be utilized as a media room or a playroom for the kids. The home also offers an airy, bright master suite with a large bath and three additional bedrooms with plenty of space and versatility. The outdoor storage building is equipped with plenty of extra space to meet your storage demands and the home s beautiful landscaping gives it a warm, welcoming feel before you ever step through the door. With so much to offer at such an amazing price, what's not to love?

22. 2018-07-23
    soldstatus $106,000 1221-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1221 chars)

    This charming one level home sits on a half-acre lot and is the perfect space for a large or growing family! The exterior of the home has a beautiful stone foundation, a large front porch, a great back deck for relaxing and entertaining, and a fenced yard that is perfect for kids and pets. Step into an interior with shining floors and bright, open spaces and feel right at home. The kitchen is outfitted with oak cabinetry that offers an abundance of storage and shares a seamless flow with the adjacent dining area. There is an inviting living room and a separate den that could be utilized as a media room or a playroom for the kids. The home also offers an airy, bright master suite with a large bath and three additional bedrooms with plenty of space and versatility. The outdoor storage building is equipped with plenty of extra space to meet your storage demands and the home s beautiful landscaping gives it a warm, welcoming feel before you ever step through the door. With so much to offer at such an amazing price, what s not to love? All this home is missing is YOU! * * Seller agrees to provide a limited Home Protection Plan from Home Warranty of America at the cost of $575 to be funded at closing * *

23. 2018-07-17
    soldstatus $106,100
24. 2018-05-02
    listed $109,000 1221-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1221 chars)

    This charming one level home sits on a half-acre lot and is the perfect space for a large or growing family! The exterior of the home has a beautiful stone foundation, a large front porch, a great back deck for relaxing and entertaining, and a fenced yard that is perfect for kids and pets. Step into an interior with shining floors and bright, open spaces and feel right at home. The kitchen is outfitted with oak cabinetry that offers an abundance of storage and shares a seamless flow with the adjacent dining area. There is an inviting living room and a separate den that could be utilized as a media room or a playroom for the kids. The home also offers an airy, bright master suite with a large bath and three additional bedrooms with plenty of space and versatility. The outdoor storage building is equipped with plenty of extra space to meet your storage demands and the home s beautiful landscaping gives it a warm, welcoming feel before you ever step through the door. With so much to offer at such an amazing price, what s not to love? All this home is missing is YOU! * * Seller agrees to provide a limited Home Protection Plan from Home Warranty of America at the cost of $575 to be funded at closing * *

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TN · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,080 · $90/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,632 · $136/mo
• Expected delta: +$552/yr (+$46/mo · 51.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,878
• − Property taxes: −$1,080
• − Insurance: −$1,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,400
• − Management: −$2,400
• − Depreciation: −$6,688
• Taxable income: $3,405
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$817
• After-tax cash flow: $6,186/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hawkins County
• NCES district ID: 4701740
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $37,555
• Composite: 20.45/100
• National rank: #8581
• State rank: #93 of 139 in TN

Livability — Church Hill

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #42
• US rank: #6706

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety C+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Church Hill, TN
• City population: 14,491
• Population (ZIP): 14,491

Population outlook (Hawkins County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 55,226 people
• By 2030: 53,784 · -2.6%
• By 2040: 50,015 · -9.4%
• By 2050: 45,682 · -17.3%
• By 2075: 36,211 · -34.4%
• By 2100: 26,536 · -52.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 1% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Iranian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Hawkins

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+68.8) · D 15.2% · R 84.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.9pp toward R · 2008: -42.0pp · 2024: -68.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+68.8 2020: R+65.8 2016: R+63.4 2012: R+47.0 2008: R+42.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -56.69%
• Current HPI: 297.1526
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

+110.9% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-01 Relisted — TVRMLS
• 2026-03-31 Delisted — TVRMLS
• 2026-01-09 Price Changed $229,900 TVRMLS
• 2025-10-09 Price Changed $259,900 TVRMLS
• 2025-08-30 Listed $269,900 TVRMLS
• 2018-07-23 Sold (MLS) $106,000 TVRMLS
• 2018-07-17 Sold (Public Records) $106,100 Public Records
• 2018-05-02 Listed $109,000 TVRMLS

Property tax history

+3.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,080 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.