43 Palm Dr · Union City, CA 94587

$235,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured · 33 Days on market

Built 1972 Average condition $175/sqft · 10% above area Est $214k · 10% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.6/10.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• ARV discount +3.1/15.0
• Condition / age +2.8/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Tropics (adult 55+ community). This home features; 2 bedrooms; 2 full baths; separate living, dining, and family rooms; updated kitchen with stone counter tops and stainless steel appliances; LTV flooring in living room, family room, dining room, and kitchen; indoor laundry with washer and dryer; storage shed & more.

Key facts

• Community pool
• Built 1972
• Listed 33 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $235k. Condition is rated average.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $235k).
• Recommended offer: $228k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.8% vs local median 1.8% in Union City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#150 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D, amenities D, cost of living F.
• New Haven Unified (suburban): math 43% / reading 69% proficiency, ranked #85 of 517 in CA (top 16%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.5%/yr); 145 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,742 units permitted in Alameda County in 2024 (856 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($134k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Alameda County population projected at +34% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.5% rent growth), your $66k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($228k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $227,950 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.46% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.69%
• DSCR: 1.88
• GRM: 5.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $213,903
• List price: $235,000
• Delta: 9.86%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
259 Molokai Cir #259	0.11mi	2/2.0	1,344 (0%)	0mo	$180,000	$134	95
179 Kona Cir	0.14mi	2/2.0	1,344 (0%)	1mo	$260,000	$193	93
328 Waikiki Cir	0.16mi	2/2.0	1,344 (0%)	3mo	$215,000	$160	90
226 Hula Cir	0.04mi	2/2.0	1,344 (0%)	10mo	$205,000	$153	89
17 Palm Dr	0.09mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,368 (+2%)	3mo	$200,000	$146	85
418 Fiji Cir #418	0.30mi	2/2.0	1,344 (0%)	2mo	$313,333	$233	85
269 Oahu	0.10mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+7%)	1mo	$285,000	$198	83
51 Palm Dr	0.04mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+7%)	9mo	$225,000	$156	79
324 Waikiki Cir	0.19mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+7%)	3mo	$165,000	$115	76
167 Kona Cir	0.17mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+7%)	7mo	$247,000	$172	74
198 Hawaii Cir	0.10mi	2/2.0	1,464 (+9%)	10mo	$185,000	$126	72
4141 Deepcreek #106	0.67mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+7%)	9mo	$130,000	$90	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.49% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.49×
• Total profit: $32,442
• Equity at exit: $35,039

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.89×
• Total profit: $124,045
• Equity at exit: $20,319

Cash invested: $65,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94587

• Rents YoY: 3.5%
• Active inventory: 145
• Price-to-rent: 5.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,423 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,232
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$294 /mo · $3,525/yr
• Insurance: −$98
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$719
• Net cashflow: $1,080

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,056

Max offer price $235,000

Occupancy floor 63%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,750
• Closing costs: $7,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3842 Cardinal Ter Fremont, CA	3.0	2.5	1607	$4,100	$2.55	18d	1	0.56mi
2262 Eric Ct #4 Union City, CA	3.0	1.5	1003	$3,400	$3.39	3d	1	0.58mi
33411 Madelyn Ter Union City, CA	2.0	2.5	1441	$3,798	$2.64	18d	1	0.59mi
33877 Raven Ter Fremont, CA	2.0	1.5	1315	$3,700	$2.81	15d	1	0.59mi
34077 Paseo Padre Pkwy Fremont, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	788	$2,887	$3.66	2d	13	0.93mi
34426 Bentley Pl Fremont, CA	3.0	2.0	1290	$3,500	$2.71	20d	1	0.93mi
2449 Almaden Blvd Union City, CA	3.0	2.0	1565	$4,495	$2.87	2d	1	0.94mi
4123 Asimuth Cir Union City, CA	3.0	1.5	1280	$3,350	$2.62	44d	1	1.03mi
4292 Comet Cir Union City, CA	3.0	1.5	1250	$2,950	$2.36	24d	1	1.14mi
2500 Medallion Dr Union City, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0	781	$2,585	$3.31	2d	9	1.26mi
3307 San Marco Ct Union City, CA	3.0	2.0	1349	$3,900	$2.89	3d	1	1.34mi
3221 San Carlos Way Union City, CA	3.0	2.0	1396	$3,795	$2.72	3d	1	1.37mi
34655 Skylark Dr Union City, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	886	$2,360	$2.66	4d	5	1.40mi
1037 Stone St Union City, CA	3.0	2.0	1583	$4,350	$2.75	24d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-13
   status Pending 322-char remark

   Show marketing remark (322 chars)

   Tropics (adult 55+ community). This home features; 2 bedrooms; 2 full baths; separate living, dining, and family rooms; updated kitchen with stone counter tops and stainless steel appliances; LTV flooring in living room, family room, dining room, and kitchen; indoor laundry with washer and dryer; storage shed & more.

2. 2026-04-09
   listed $235,000 Active 322-char remark

   Show marketing remark (322 chars)

   Tropics (adult 55+ community). This home features; 2 bedrooms; 2 full baths; separate living, dining, and family rooms; updated kitchen with stone counter tops and stainless steel appliances; LTV flooring in living room, family room, dining room, and kitchen; indoor laundry with washer and dryer; storage shed & more.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 18% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 12 unhealthy d/yr today · 12 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $41,071
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,164
• − Property taxes: −$3,525
• − Insurance: −$1,175
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,286
• − Management: −$3,286
• − Depreciation: −$6,836
• Taxable income: $9,800
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,352
• After-tax cash flow: $10,606/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Average 55/100 Cosmetic rehab

This manufactured home is in average condition with cosmetic updates needed to enhance its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor paint — paint appears worn
• Minor kitchen cabinets — slight wear

Value-add opportunities

• Both paint interior walls and cabinets — enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both replace worn flooring — improves comfort and appearance
• Both update kitchen appliances — modernizes the space and increases appeal

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
paint · paint appears worn	Minor	$500–3,000
kitchen cabinets · slight wear	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$1,000–6,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both paint interior walls and cabinets — enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both replace worn flooring — improves comfort and appearance ↑
• Both update kitchen appliances — modernizes the space and increases appeal ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: New Haven Unified
• NCES district ID: 0626910
• Math proficiency: 43% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 69% ▲ 18.00%
• Median HH income: $87,202
• Composite: 51.21/100
• National rank: #1754
• State rank: #85 of 517 in CA

Livability — Union City

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #150
• US rank: #5027

Category grades

Amenities D Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime D Employment A+ Housing B Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Union City, CA
• County: Alameda County · 1,614,355 people
• City population: 67,464
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 67,464
• Household income: $133,715
• Rent vs Own: 35.3% rent · 64.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1565.0

Population outlook (Alameda County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,928,884 people
• By 2030: 2,069,146 · +7.3%
• By 2040: 2,338,405 · +21.2%
• By 2050: 2,586,608 · +34.1%
• By 2075: 3,061,911 · +58.7%
• By 2100: 3,234,133 · +67.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: Asian 55% Hispanic / Latino 19% White 15% Two or more races 10% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16%
• Common ancestry: Russian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 47% · China, Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 39% English-only · Spanish 13% Other Indo-European 13% Tagalog/Filipino 12%

Political lean MEDSL · Alameda

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+53.6) · D 74.6% · R 21.0% · Other 4.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.9pp toward R · 2008: 59.5pp · 2024: 53.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+53.6 2020: D+62.5 2016: D+64.4 2012: D+59.8 2008: D+59.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1280.49%
• Current HPI: 343.0333
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.49%
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Pending — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-04-09 Listed $235,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR