159 Road 5814 · Dayton, TX 77327

$100,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,100 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 69 Days on market

Built 2023 Poor condition 0.25 ac lot $91/sqft · 46% below area Est $185k · 46% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The exterior shell of the home is already established, providing a solid structural head start for your creative legacy. Now it’s your turn to bring the design and finishes to life exactly how you want them. The property is nestled in a quiet Cleveland enclave, offering a peaceful atmosphere in a rural setting. This is a premier prospect for developer or buyer who refuses to settle for cookie-cutter.

Key facts

• 0.25 acre lot
• Built 2023
• Listed 69 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $100k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $584 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $94k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.3% vs local median 3.2% in Dayton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,066 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Cleveland ISD (town): math 24% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #723 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 1574 active listings in the ZIP; 1,321 units permitted in Liberty County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Liberty County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 69 days — a 6% lower offer ($94k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $94,000 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 69 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.58% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 25.04%
• DSCR: 2.11
• GRM: 5.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $184,720
• List price: $100,000
• Delta: -45.86%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
504 Road 5822	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,193 (+8%)	6mo	$173,000	$145	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.81×
• Total profit: $22,628
• Equity at exit: $14,910

10-year hold

• IRR: 28.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.66×
• Total profit: $74,402
• Equity at exit: $8,646

Cash invested: $28,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77327

• Home prices YoY: -5.2%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 1574
• Price-to-rent: 5.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,584 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$101 /mo · $1,214/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$333
• Net cashflow: $584

Break-even live

Break-even rent $845

Max offer price $100,000

Occupancy floor 58%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $641	-5% $613	+0% $584	+5% $556	+10% $528
Rent	-10% $459	-5% $522	+0% $584	+5% $647	+10% $709
Rate	-1.0pp $635	-0.5pp $610	base $584	+0.5pp $558	+1.0pp $532

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $25,000
• Closing costs: $3,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $100,000 Active 69 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $100,000 Active 68 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $100,000 Active 67 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $100,000 Active 66 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $100,000 Active 64 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $100,000 Active 60 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $100,000 Active 59 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $100,000 Active 58 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $100,000 Active 55 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $100,000 Active 54 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $100,000 Active 53 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $100,000 Active 52 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $100,000 Active 51 DOM
14. 2026-04-10
    listed $100,000 Active 412-char remark

    Show marketing remark (412 chars)

    The exterior shell of the home is already established, providing a solid structural head start for your creative legacy. Now it’s your turn to bring the design and finishes to life exactly how you want them. The property is nestled in a quiet Cleveland enclave, offering a peaceful atmosphere in a rural setting. This is a premier prospect for developer or buyer who refuses to settle for cookie-cutter.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,214 · $101/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,830 · $152/mo
• Expected delta: +$616/yr (+$51/mo · 50.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,011
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,602
• − Property taxes: −$1,214
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,521
• − Management: −$1,521
• − Depreciation: −$2,909
• Taxable income: $5,744
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,379
• After-tax cash flow: $5,633/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This property requires extensive renovation to become habitable and marketable. Immediate focus should be on completing the roof, flooring, and exterior/interior construction.

Repairs flagged

• Major roof — Incomplete roof covering
• Major flooring — Exposed concrete, no flooring
• Major exterior walls — Exposed brick, incomplete construction
• Major interior walls — Exposed brick, incomplete construction

Value-add opportunities

• Both Complete roof covering — Protects the structure and enhances curb appeal
• Both Flooring — Provides a finished look and improves usability
• Both Complete exterior and interior construction — Creates a move-in-ready home

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
roof · Incomplete roof covering	Major	$15,000–50,000
flooring · Exposed concrete, no flooring	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior walls · Exposed brick, incomplete construction	Major	$15,000–50,000
interior walls · Exposed brick, incomplete construction	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 4 items		$60,000–200,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Complete roof covering — Protects the structure and enhances curb appeal ↑
• Both Flooring — Provides a finished look and improves usability ↑
• Both Complete exterior and interior construction — Creates a move-in-ready home ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cleveland ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814370
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $39,173
• Composite: 20.61/100
• National rank: #8549
• State rank: #723 of 826 in TX

Livability — Dayton

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #1066
• US rank: #18940

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Liberty County · 82,189 people
• City population: 82,189
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 42,685
• Household income: $62,219
• Rent vs Own: 14.4% rent · 85.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 437.0

Population outlook (Liberty County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 87,956 people
• By 2030: 92,161 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 100,784 · +14.6%
• By 2050: 109,471 · +24.5%
• By 2075: 133,470 · +51.7%
• By 2100: 147,372 · +67.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 54% White 36% Two or more races 18% Black 8% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1% Slovak 0%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada
• Languages at home: 51% English-only · Spanish 48%

Political lean MEDSL · Liberty

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.6) · D 19.0% · R 80.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -43.7pp · 2024: -61.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.6 2020: R+59.7 2016: R+58.0 2012: R+53.3 2008: R+43.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -12.39%
• Current HPI: 224.9222
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.00%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-10 Listed $100,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+8.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,214 · +23.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.