31468 Memphis Loop · Loxley, AL 36527

$334,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,846 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 99 Days on market

Built 2022 7,274 sqft lot $181/sqft · at area comps Est $347k · at est. $50/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.0/30.0
• ARV discount +9.1/15.0
• Rent growth +4.1/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

SELLER IS OFFERING UP TO $10,000 IN CONCESSIONS/BUYER CLOSING COSTS — USE IT YOUR WAY! Welcome to the sought-after Stonebridge community! Walking and biking Paradise. USDA Eligable! This Gold Fortified property features 4 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms with a thoughtfully designed open and split floor plan. As you enter, you are greeted by a welcoming foyer that opens into a spacious living area and kitchen, perfect for both everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen features granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, a gas range, and a large island with seating, along with a generous dining space just off the kitchen. The living room offers tray ceilings and abundant natural light, creating a bright and inviting atmosphere. The primary suite is privately located off the living area and features tray ceilings, a spacious layout, and an en-suite bathroom with double vanities, a walk-in shower, garden tub, and walk-in closet. Three additional bedrooms and a full bathroom provide plenty of space for family, guests, or a home office. Step outside to enjoy the covered back patio and spacious backyard, ideal for relaxing or entertaining. If you’ve been dreaming of owning a home in Stonebridge, this is your opportunity. Schedule your private showing today! Buyer to verify all information during due diligence.

Key facts

• Granite countertops
• Gas range
• 7,274 sq ft lot

Tags

• GOLD FORTIFIED PROPERTY
• OPEN AND SPLIT FLOOR PLAN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• GAS RANGE
• LARGE ISLAND WITH SEATING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $335k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-143 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $310k (7.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $240k (28.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $240k (28.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 4.1% in Loxley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#95 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A, employment B; Watch: schools D, crime D, amenities F.
• Baldwin County (rural): math 33% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #18 of 129 in AL (top 14%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.5%/yr); 331 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 3,883 units permitted in Baldwin County in 2024 (481 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Baldwin County population projected at +42% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 99 days — a 9% lower offer ($305k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $240,158 (28.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 99 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.78%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.83%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 11.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $346,923
• List price: $334,900
• Delta: -3.47%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
31147 Semper Dr	0.33mi	4/2.0	1,835 (-1%)	1mo	$345,000	$188	83
31578 Lyon Rd	0.32mi	4/2.0	1,791 (-3%)	1mo	$349,558	$195	79
31602 Lyon Rd	0.34mi	4/2.0	1,791 (-3%)	3mo	$349,308	$195	77
31662 Lyon Rd	0.38mi	4/2.0	1,791 (-3%)	1mo	$351,058	$196	77
32184 Lyon Rd	0.35mi	4/2.0	1,791 (-3%)	3mo	$347,008	$194	77
31625 Lyon Rd	0.40mi	4/2.0	1,791 (-3%)	1mo	$349,558	$195	76
31697 Lyon Rd	0.41mi	4/2.0	1,791 (-3%)	2mo	$342,308	$191	74
12693 Waxwing Ave	0.53mi	4/2.0	1,940 (+5%)	1mo	$339,500	$175	66
31579 Lyon Rd	0.39mi	4/2.0	2,031 (+10%)	1mo	$360,558	$178	64
12738 Chickadee Ln	0.50mi	4/2.0	1,960 (+6%)	2mo	$344,900	$176	64
31847 Lyon Rd	0.52mi	4/2.0	2,031 (+10%)	2mo	$356,650	$176	58
31734 Lyon Rd	0.43mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,012 (+9%)	3mo	$363,268	$181	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.52% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-54,720
• Equity at exit: $49,935

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.78×
• Total profit: $-21,085
• Equity at exit: $28,956

Cash invested: $93,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 36527

• Home prices YoY: -14.4%
• Rents YoY: 6.5%
• Active inventory: 331
• Price-to-rent: 11.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,402 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,756
• Tax from tax record: −$95 /mo · $1,137/yr
• Insurance: −$140
• HOA: −$50
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$504
• Net cashflow: $-143

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,583

Max offer price $309,589

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $46	-5% $-48	+0% $-143	+5% $-238	+10% $-333
Rent	-10% $-333	-5% $-238	+0% $-143	+5% $-48	+10% $46
Rate	-1.0pp $25	-0.5pp $-58	base $-143	+0.5pp $-230	+1.0pp $-318

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $83,725
• Closing costs: $10,047
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
31448 Memphis Loop Daphne, AL	4.0	2.0	2033	$2,400	$1.18	14d	1	0.01mi
12941 Sanderling Loop Daphne, AL	4.0	3.0	2536	$2,695	$1.06	21d	1	0.31mi
13522 Monticello Blvd Daphne, AL	4.0	2.0	2318	$2,700	$1.16	21d	1	0.34mi
31697 Lyon Rd Spanish Fort, AL	4.0	2.0	1787	$2,500	$1.40	21d	1	0.41mi
31100 Falling Waters Loop Daphne, AL	2.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	1158	$2,299	$1.99	44d	1	0.58mi
31573 Shearwater Dr Daphne, AL	4.0	2.0	1830	$1,995	$1.09	21d	1	0.62mi
13445 Antler Hill Rd Spanish Fort, AL	4.0	2.0	1921	$2,100	$1.09	44d	1	0.67mi
32231 Emancipation Cir Spanish Fort, AL	3.0	2.5	1492	$1,850	$1.24	44d	1	0.70mi
31399 Spoonbill Rd Daphne, AL	4.0	3.5	2567	$2,995	$1.17	21d	1	0.79mi
13708 Antler Hill Rd Daphne, AL	4.0	2.0	1948	$2,300	$1.18	44d	1	0.86mi
11801 Balsam Ct Daphne, AL	4.0	2.0	1783	$2,195	$1.23	21d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $50 · $600/yr
• Likely covers: gas

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $334,900 Active 99 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $334,900 Active 98 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $334,900 Active 97 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $334,900 Active 96 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $334,900 Active 95 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $334,900 Active 93 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $334,900 Active 92 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $334,900 Active 90 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $334,900 Active 89 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $334,900 Active 88 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $334,900 Active 87 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $334,900 Active 84 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $334,900 Active 83 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $334,900 Active 82 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $334,900 Active 81 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $334,900 Active 80 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $334,900 Active 79 DOM
18. 2026-05-12
    price $334,900 1348-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1343 chars)

    SELLER IS OFFERING UP TO $10,000 IN CONCESSIONS/BUYER CLOSING COSTS — USE IT YOUR WAY! Welcome to the sought-after Stonebridge community! Walking and biking Paradise. USDA Eligable! This Gold Fortified property features 4 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms with a thoughtfully designed open and split floor plan. As you enter, you are greeted by a welcoming foyer that opens into a spacious living area and kitchen, perfect for both everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen features granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, a gas range, and a large island with seating, along with a generous dining space just off the kitchen. The living room offers tray ceilings and abundant natural light, creating a bright and inviting atmosphere. The primary suite is privately located off the living area and features tray ceilings, a spacious layout, and an en-suite bathroom with double vanities, a walk-in shower, garden tub, and walk-in closet. Three additional bedrooms and a full bathroom provide plenty of space for family, guests, or a home office. Step outside to enjoy the covered back patio and spacious backyard, ideal for relaxing or entertaining. If you’ve been dreaming of owning a home in Stonebridge, this is your opportunity. Schedule your private showing today! Buyer to verify all information during due diligence.

19. 2026-05-12
    price $334,900 1343-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1343 chars)

    SELLER IS OFFERING UP TO $10,000 IN CONCESSIONS/BUYER CLOSING COSTS — USE IT YOUR WAY! Welcome to the sought-after Stonebridge community! Walking and biking Paradise. USDA Eligable! This Gold Fortified property features 4 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms with a thoughtfully designed open and split floor plan. As you enter, you are greeted by a welcoming foyer that opens into a spacious living area and kitchen, perfect for both everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen features granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, a gas range, and a large island with seating, along with a generous dining space just off the kitchen. The living room offers tray ceilings and abundant natural light, creating a bright and inviting atmosphere. The primary suite is privately located off the living area and features tray ceilings, a spacious layout, and an en-suite bathroom with double vanities, a walk-in shower, garden tub, and walk-in closet. Three additional bedrooms and a full bathroom provide plenty of space for family, guests, or a home office. Step outside to enjoy the covered back patio and spacious backyard, ideal for relaxing or entertaining. If you’ve been dreaming of owning a home in Stonebridge, this is your opportunity. Schedule your private showing today! Buyer to verify all information during due diligence.

20. 2026-03-24
    listed $339,900 Active 1348-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1348 chars)

    SELLER IS OFFERING UP TO $10,000 IN CONCESSIONS/BUYER CLOSING COSTS — USE IT YOUR WAY! Welcome to the sought-after Stonebridge community! Walking and biking Paradise. USDA Eligable! This Gold Fortified property features 4 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms with a thoughtfully designed open and split floor plan. As you enter, you are greeted by a welcoming foyer that opens into a spacious living area and kitchen, perfect for both everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen features granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, a gas range, and a large island with seating, along with a generous dining space just off the kitchen. The living room offers tray ceilings and abundant natural light, creating a bright and inviting atmosphere. The primary suite is privately located off the living area and features tray ceilings, a spacious layout, and an en-suite bathroom with double vanities, a walk-in shower, garden tub, and walk-in closet. Three additional bedrooms and a full bathroom provide plenty of space for family, guests, or a home office. Step outside to enjoy the covered back patio and spacious backyard, ideal for relaxing or entertaining. If you’ve been dreaming of owning a home in Stonebridge, this is your opportunity. Schedule your private showing today! Buyer to verify all information during due diligence.

21. 2026-03-12
    listed $339,900 Active 1343-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1343 chars)

    SELLER IS OFFERING UP TO $10,000 IN CONCESSIONS/BUYER CLOSING COSTS — USE IT YOUR WAY! Welcome to the sought-after Stonebridge community! Walking and biking Paradise. USDA Eligable! This Gold Fortified property features 4 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms with a thoughtfully designed open and split floor plan. As you enter, you are greeted by a welcoming foyer that opens into a spacious living area and kitchen, perfect for both everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen features granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, a gas range, and a large island with seating, along with a generous dining space just off the kitchen. The living room offers tray ceilings and abundant natural light, creating a bright and inviting atmosphere. The primary suite is privately located off the living area and features tray ceilings, a spacious layout, and an en-suite bathroom with double vanities, a walk-in shower, garden tub, and walk-in closet. Three additional bedrooms and a full bathroom provide plenty of space for family, guests, or a home office. Step outside to enjoy the covered back patio and spacious backyard, ideal for relaxing or entertaining. If you’ve been dreaming of owning a home in Stonebridge, this is your opportunity. Schedule your private showing today! Buyer to verify all information during due diligence.

22. 2022-02-16
    soldstatus $302,900 Closed
23. 2022-01-02
    status Pending
24. 2021-11-27
    listed $302,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,137 · $95/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,373 · $114/mo
• Expected delta: +$236/yr (+$20/mo · 20.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,819
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,760
• − Property taxes: −$1,137
• − Insurance: −$1,674
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,306
• − Management: −$2,306
• − HOA: −$600
• − Depreciation: −$9,743
• Taxable loss: −$7,706
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,849
• After-tax cash flow: $130/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baldwin County
• NCES district ID: 0100270
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -26.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $50,677
• Composite: 38.61/100
• National rank: #4157
• State rank: #18 of 129 in AL

Livability — Loxley

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #95
• US rank: #11346

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime D Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Loxley, AL
• County: Baldwin County · 181,514 people
• Metro: Daphne-Fairhope-Foley, AL
• Population (ZIP): 21,765
• Household income: $120,189
• Rent vs Own: 23.9% rent · 76.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 378.0

Population outlook (Baldwin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 248,264 people
• By 2030: 270,315 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 312,967 · +26.1%
• By 2050: 352,262 · +41.9%
• By 2075: 438,841 · +76.8%
• By 2100: 487,736 · +96.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Two or more races 8% Black 6% Hispanic / Latino 5% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Jamaica, South Korea
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Baldwin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.2) · D 20.5% · R 78.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.7pp toward R · 2008: -51.5pp · 2024: -58.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.2 2020: R+53.8 2016: R+57.8 2012: R+55.8 2008: R+51.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -39.56%
• Current HPI: 234.5113
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.52%
• Metro: Daphne-Fairhope-Foley, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+10.6% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $334,900 GCMLS AL
• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $334,900 BCAR
• 2026-03-24 Listed $339,900 GCMLS AL
• 2026-03-12 Listed $339,900 BCAR
• 2022-02-16 Sold (MLS) $302,900 BCAR
• 2022-01-02 Pending — BCAR
• 2021-11-27 Listed $302,900 BCAR

Property tax history

+48.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,137 · +2.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.