7851 Fuqua St · Houston, TX 77075

$70,000

2 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,292 sqft · Condo public records · 132 Days on market

Built 1979 $122/mo HOA · 7% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• $122 HOA
• Parking
• Built 1979

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath condo listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $649 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $62k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 17.4% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Thomas Middle (math 3% / reading 13%, grade F, #1,654 of 1,662 statewide, top 100%, 526 students, 98% FRL); Sterling H S (math 16% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,377 of 1,632 statewide, top 85%, 1,421 students, 92% FRL) — zoned schools average 95% FRL vs 71% district-wide (24 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 15% at this address vs 31% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Houston ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.2%/yr); 146 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $484 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.2% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 132 days — a 12% lower offer ($62k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (36%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $61,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 132 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
9. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.41% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 39.72%
• DSCR: 2.77
• GRM: 3.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.17% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 35.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.47×
• Total profit: $28,734
• Equity at exit: $10,437

10-year hold

• IRR: 41.4%
• Equity multiple: 4.73×
• Total profit: $73,202
• Equity at exit: $6,052

Cash invested: $19,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77075

• Home prices YoY: -25.3%
• Rents YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 146
• Price-to-rent: 3.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,684 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax from tax record: −$163 /mo · $1,956/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$122
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$354
• Net cashflow: $649

Break-even live

Break-even rent $862

Max offer price $70,000

Occupancy floor 56%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,500
• Closing costs: $2,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7821 Fuqua St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1408	$1,700	$1.21	43d	1	0.08mi
8012 Folkstone Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1589	$1,900	$1.20	43d	1	0.30mi
8238 Fuqua Gardens Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1787	$1,995	$1.12	5d	1	0.45mi
7909 S Sam Houston Pkwy E Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	943	$1,072	$1.14	43d	1	0.73mi
7915 S Sam Houston Pkwy E Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1154	$1,104	$0.96	43d	1	0.85mi
8911 Durham Manor Ln Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1848	$2,201	$1.19	5d	1	1.17mi
11576 Pearland Pkwy Unit 2162 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1079	$1,812	$1.68	5d	1	1.19mi
11576 Pearland Pkwy Unit 2165 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1079	$1,804	$1.67	2d	1	1.19mi
9943 Pearland Pkwy Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1079	$1,839	$1.70	24d	1	1.22mi
11576 Pearland Pkwy Unit 422 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1079	$1,812	$1.68	7d	1	1.23mi
11576 Pearland Pkwy Unit 11613 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1079	$1,847	$1.71	11d	1	1.23mi
11576 Pearland Pkwy Unit 2174 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1079	$1,836	$1.70	10d	1	1.26mi
8020 Botany Ln Unit 1546255P Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1388	$3,226	$2.32	16d	1	1.29mi
6543 Castle Loch Ct Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1709	$1,995	$1.17	14d	1	1.40mi
11575 Pearland Pkwy Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1070	$1,589	$1.48	1d	22	1.48mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $122 · $1,464/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $70,000 Active 132 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $70,000 Active 131 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $70,000 Active 130 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   statusdays on market $70,000 Active 129 DOM
5. 2026-04-18
   status Pending
6. 2026-04-13
   status Pending
7. 2026-04-09
   historical
8. 2026-03-19
   status Active
9. 2026-03-05
   status Pending
10. 2026-01-07
    historical Active Under Contract
11. 2026-01-05
    price $70,000
12. 2025-11-23
    listed $110,000 Active
13. 2003-10-07
    soldstatus $420,000
14. 1997-10-16
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,956 · $163/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,956 · $163/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 74% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,204
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,921
• − Property taxes: −$1,956
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,616
• − Management: −$1,616
• − HOA: −$1,464
• − Depreciation: −$2,036
• Taxable income: $7,244
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,739
• After-tax cash flow: $6,048/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 40,626
• Household income: $69,191
• Rent vs Own: 39.6% rent · 60.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1573.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 71% Two or more races 34% Black 14% White 7% Asian 6% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 53%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 30% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 34% English-only · Spanish 60% Vietnamese 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -88.33%
• Current HPI: 260.3733
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.17%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-83.3% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-18 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-13 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-09 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-03-19 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-03-05 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-01-07 Contingent — HARMLS
• 2026-01-05 Price Changed $70,000 HARMLS
• 2025-11-23 Listed $110,000 HARMLS
• 2003-10-07 Sold (Public Records) $420,000 Public Records
• 1997-10-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+0.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,956 · +11.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.