159 Locust Ln · Independence, VA 24348

$154,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,034 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 306 Days on market

Built 1952 0.69 ac lot $150/sqft · 23% below area Est $201k · 23% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +6.9/10.0
• Cash flow +6.5/30.0
• Schools +5.9/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.6/10.0
• DSCR +0.8/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Price reduction on this one. Cute, Cute, Cute! Have you been looking for that perfect get-a-way place, or maybe you are just starting out or slowing down-this is a must-see property, pictures do not do it justice. 2 bedrooms, 1 bath with a bonus room, once used as a 3rd bedroom. Sellers have lovingly brought the interior of this cottage back to life. A mini split will add to the ease of heating and cooling. If you want to take it up a notch, the kitchen has a lovely pot belly wood stove. The kitchen has undergone a face lift, with new paint on the existing cabinets, and the addition of more cabinets, new countertops, and hardware. Original hardwood floors in the bedrooms, and kitchen. New carpet in the living room to keep your feet warm in the winter. The bathroom has the original cast iron tub, but they have added a very cool sink and cabinet that lends to the feel of the bathroom. Updated light fixtures were also carefully chosen to compliment the rooms. So much of this charming cottage takes you back in time, with the addition of modern comforts. Outside you will find additional living area with the wrap around porch, most of which is covered. A porch swing and ceiling fan greets you as you walk up the front steps. It calls you to sit awhile, sip your sweet tea and take in the quietness and beauty of your surroundings. Storage won't be a problem either with a shed and additional outbuildings. The original spring house is still there, but a new well was drilled in 2022. There is a meandering creek at the back of the property, and a fire pit for roasting marshmallows.

Key facts

• Wrap around porch
• Pot belly wood stove
• Fire pit

Tags

• MINI SPLIT
• POT BELLY WOOD STOVE
• ORIGINAL HARDWOOD FLOORS
• ORIGINAL CAST IRON TUB
• WRAP AROUND PORCH
• FIRE PIT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $155k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-262 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $117k (24.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $102k (33.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $102k (33.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.3% vs local median 1.8% in Independence — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#320 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Grayson County Public School District (rural): math 68% / reading 76% proficiency, ranked #27 of 131 in VA (top 21%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Zoned schools: Independence Elementary (math 62% / reading 77%, grade A-, #313 of 1,108 statewide, top 32%, 277 students, 89% FRL); Independence Middle (math 60% / reading 73%, grade A-, #107 of 342 statewide, top 33%, 262 students, 88% FRL); Grayson County High (math 82% / reading 82%, grade A, #40 of 319 statewide, top 15%, 465 students, 87% FRL) — zoned schools average 88% FRL vs 53% district-wide (35 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 47 active listings in the ZIP; 38 units permitted in Grayson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (3.7% local appreciation)).
• Grayson County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 306 days — a 12% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $24k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1952 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $102,399 (33.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 306 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 34% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1952 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.66% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.27%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.24%
• DSCR: 0.68
• GRM: 12.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $200,543
• List price: $154,900
• Delta: -22.76%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

3.7% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.18×
• Total profit: $7,872
• Equity at exit: $75,876

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.02×
• Total profit: $44,381
• Equity at exit: $122,026

Cash invested: $43,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24348

• Home prices YoY: 1.8%
• Active inventory: 47
• Price-to-rent: 12.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,024 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$812
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$194 /mo · $2,324/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$215
• Net cashflow: $-262

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,355

Max offer price $117,057

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-154	-5% $-208	+0% $-262	+5% $-315	+10% $-369
Rent	-10% $-342	-5% $-302	+0% $-262	+5% $-221	+10% $-181
Rate	-1.0pp $-184	-0.5pp $-222	base $-262	+0.5pp $-302	+1.0pp $-342

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,725
• Closing costs: $4,647
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-08
   days on market $154,900 Active 306 DOM
2. 2026-06-07
   days on market $154,900 Active 305 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   days on market $154,900 Active 302 DOM
4. 2026-06-02
   days on market $154,900 Active 301 DOM
5. 2026-06-01
   days on market $154,900 Active 300 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $154,900 Active 299 DOM
7. 2026-05-09
   status Active 1597-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1597 chars)

   Price reduction on this one. Cute, Cute, Cute! Have you been looking for that perfect get-a-way place, or maybe you are just starting out or slowing down-this is a must-see property, pictures do not do it justice. 2 bedrooms, 1 bath with a bonus room, once used as a 3rd bedroom. Sellers have lovingly brought the interior of this cottage back to life. A mini split will add to the ease of heating and cooling. If you want to take it up a notch, the kitchen has a lovely pot belly wood stove. The kitchen has undergone a face lift, with new paint on the existing cabinets, and the addition of more cabinets, new countertops, and hardware. Original hardwood floors in the bedrooms, and kitchen. New carpet in the living room to keep your feet warm in the winter. The bathroom has the original cast iron tub, but they have added a very cool sink and cabinet that lends to the feel of the bathroom. Updated light fixtures were also carefully chosen to compliment the rooms. So much of this charming cottage takes you back in time, with the addition of modern comforts. Outside you will find additional living area with the wrap around porch, most of which is covered. A porch swing and ceiling fan greets you as you walk up the front steps. It calls you to sit awhile, sip your sweet tea and take in the quietness and beauty of your surroundings. Storage won't be a problem either with a shed and additional outbuildings. The original spring house is still there, but a new well was drilled in 2022. There is a meandering creek at the back of the property, and a fire pit for roasting marshmallows.

8. 2026-04-14
   status Pending 1597-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1597 chars)

   Price reduction on this one. Cute, Cute, Cute! Have you been looking for that perfect get-a-way place, or maybe you are just starting out or slowing down-this is a must-see property, pictures do not do it justice. 2 bedrooms, 1 bath with a bonus room, once used as a 3rd bedroom. Sellers have lovingly brought the interior of this cottage back to life. A mini split will add to the ease of heating and cooling. If you want to take it up a notch, the kitchen has a lovely pot belly wood stove. The kitchen has undergone a face lift, with new paint on the existing cabinets, and the addition of more cabinets, new countertops, and hardware. Original hardwood floors in the bedrooms, and kitchen. New carpet in the living room to keep your feet warm in the winter. The bathroom has the original cast iron tub, but they have added a very cool sink and cabinet that lends to the feel of the bathroom. Updated light fixtures were also carefully chosen to compliment the rooms. So much of this charming cottage takes you back in time, with the addition of modern comforts. Outside you will find additional living area with the wrap around porch, most of which is covered. A porch swing and ceiling fan greets you as you walk up the front steps. It calls you to sit awhile, sip your sweet tea and take in the quietness and beauty of your surroundings. Storage won't be a problem either with a shed and additional outbuildings. The original spring house is still there, but a new well was drilled in 2022. There is a meandering creek at the back of the property, and a fire pit for roasting marshmallows.

9. 2026-01-08
   price $154,900 1597-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1597 chars)

   Price reduction on this one. Cute, Cute, Cute! Have you been looking for that perfect get-a-way place, or maybe you are just starting out or slowing down-this is a must-see property, pictures do not do it justice. 2 bedrooms, 1 bath with a bonus room, once used as a 3rd bedroom. Sellers have lovingly brought the interior of this cottage back to life. A mini split will add to the ease of heating and cooling. If you want to take it up a notch, the kitchen has a lovely pot belly wood stove. The kitchen has undergone a face lift, with new paint on the existing cabinets, and the addition of more cabinets, new countertops, and hardware. Original hardwood floors in the bedrooms, and kitchen. New carpet in the living room to keep your feet warm in the winter. The bathroom has the original cast iron tub, but they have added a very cool sink and cabinet that lends to the feel of the bathroom. Updated light fixtures were also carefully chosen to compliment the rooms. So much of this charming cottage takes you back in time, with the addition of modern comforts. Outside you will find additional living area with the wrap around porch, most of which is covered. A porch swing and ceiling fan greets you as you walk up the front steps. It calls you to sit awhile, sip your sweet tea and take in the quietness and beauty of your surroundings. Storage won't be a problem either with a shed and additional outbuildings. The original spring house is still there, but a new well was drilled in 2022. There is a meandering creek at the back of the property, and a fire pit for roasting marshmallows.

10. 2025-08-20
    price $159,000 1597-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1597 chars)

    Price reduction on this one. Cute, Cute, Cute! Have you been looking for that perfect get-a-way place, or maybe you are just starting out or slowing down-this is a must-see property, pictures do not do it justice. 2 bedrooms, 1 bath with a bonus room, once used as a 3rd bedroom. Sellers have lovingly brought the interior of this cottage back to life. A mini split will add to the ease of heating and cooling. If you want to take it up a notch, the kitchen has a lovely pot belly wood stove. The kitchen has undergone a face lift, with new paint on the existing cabinets, and the addition of more cabinets, new countertops, and hardware. Original hardwood floors in the bedrooms, and kitchen. New carpet in the living room to keep your feet warm in the winter. The bathroom has the original cast iron tub, but they have added a very cool sink and cabinet that lends to the feel of the bathroom. Updated light fixtures were also carefully chosen to compliment the rooms. So much of this charming cottage takes you back in time, with the addition of modern comforts. Outside you will find additional living area with the wrap around porch, most of which is covered. A porch swing and ceiling fan greets you as you walk up the front steps. It calls you to sit awhile, sip your sweet tea and take in the quietness and beauty of your surroundings. Storage won't be a problem either with a shed and additional outbuildings. The original spring house is still there, but a new well was drilled in 2022. There is a meandering creek at the back of the property, and a fire pit for roasting marshmallows.

11. 2025-07-15
    price $169,500 1597-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1597 chars)

    Price reduction on this one. Cute, Cute, Cute! Have you been looking for that perfect get-a-way place, or maybe you are just starting out or slowing down-this is a must-see property, pictures do not do it justice. 2 bedrooms, 1 bath with a bonus room, once used as a 3rd bedroom. Sellers have lovingly brought the interior of this cottage back to life. A mini split will add to the ease of heating and cooling. If you want to take it up a notch, the kitchen has a lovely pot belly wood stove. The kitchen has undergone a face lift, with new paint on the existing cabinets, and the addition of more cabinets, new countertops, and hardware. Original hardwood floors in the bedrooms, and kitchen. New carpet in the living room to keep your feet warm in the winter. The bathroom has the original cast iron tub, but they have added a very cool sink and cabinet that lends to the feel of the bathroom. Updated light fixtures were also carefully chosen to compliment the rooms. So much of this charming cottage takes you back in time, with the addition of modern comforts. Outside you will find additional living area with the wrap around porch, most of which is covered. A porch swing and ceiling fan greets you as you walk up the front steps. It calls you to sit awhile, sip your sweet tea and take in the quietness and beauty of your surroundings. Storage won't be a problem either with a shed and additional outbuildings. The original spring house is still there, but a new well was drilled in 2022. There is a meandering creek at the back of the property, and a fire pit for roasting marshmallows.

12. 2025-07-11
    listed $179,000 Active 1597-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1597 chars)

    Price reduction on this one. Cute, Cute, Cute! Have you been looking for that perfect get-a-way place, or maybe you are just starting out or slowing down-this is a must-see property, pictures do not do it justice. 2 bedrooms, 1 bath with a bonus room, once used as a 3rd bedroom. Sellers have lovingly brought the interior of this cottage back to life. A mini split will add to the ease of heating and cooling. If you want to take it up a notch, the kitchen has a lovely pot belly wood stove. The kitchen has undergone a face lift, with new paint on the existing cabinets, and the addition of more cabinets, new countertops, and hardware. Original hardwood floors in the bedrooms, and kitchen. New carpet in the living room to keep your feet warm in the winter. The bathroom has the original cast iron tub, but they have added a very cool sink and cabinet that lends to the feel of the bathroom. Updated light fixtures were also carefully chosen to compliment the rooms. So much of this charming cottage takes you back in time, with the addition of modern comforts. Outside you will find additional living area with the wrap around porch, most of which is covered. A porch swing and ceiling fan greets you as you walk up the front steps. It calls you to sit awhile, sip your sweet tea and take in the quietness and beauty of your surroundings. Storage won't be a problem either with a shed and additional outbuildings. The original spring house is still there, but a new well was drilled in 2022. There is a meandering creek at the back of the property, and a fire pit for roasting marshmallows.

13. 2022-11-07
    soldstatus $134,900
14. 2022-11-04
    soldstatus $134,900 271-char remark

    Show marketing remark (271 chars)

    Looking for a cute home out in the country? This could be it. 2 bedrooms and 1 bath on 0.739 acres. Floors are carpet & Vinyl. Monitor heating along with a wood stove. 2 out buildings and a can house. Appliances convey. Why Pay rent when you can own your own home.

15. 2022-08-29
    listed $139,900 271-char remark

    Show marketing remark (271 chars)

    Looking for a cute home out in the country? This could be it. 2 bedrooms and 1 bath on 0.739 acres. Floors are carpet & Vinyl. Monitor heating along with a wood stove. 2 out buildings and a can house. Appliances convey. Why Pay rent when you can own your own home.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 68% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,288
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,677
• − Property taxes: −$2,324
• − Insurance: −$774
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$983
• − Management: −$983
• − Depreciation: −$4,506
• Taxable loss: −$5,959
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,430
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,708/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Grayson County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5101690
• Math proficiency: 68% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 76% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $31,429
• Composite: 59.22/100
• National rank: #942
• State rank: #27 of 131 in VA

Livability — Independence

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #320
• US rank: #11693

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 5,095

Population outlook (Grayson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 14,252 people
• By 2030: 13,634 · -4.3%
• By 2040: 12,202 · -14.4%
• By 2050: 10,811 · -24.1%
• By 2075: 8,069 · -43.4%
• By 2100: 5,647 · -60.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Black 13% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 1% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Grayson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+62.2) · D 18.6% · R 80.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -33.7pp toward R · 2008: -28.5pp · 2024: -62.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+62.2 2020: R+61.4 2016: R+57.7 2012: R+37.9 2008: R+28.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.70%
• Current HPI: 210.8969
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+10.7% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-09 Relisted — SWVAR
• 2026-04-14 Pending — SWVAR
• 2026-01-08 Price Changed $154,900 SWVAR
• 2025-08-20 Price Changed $159,000 SWVAR
• 2025-07-15 Price Changed $169,500 SWVAR
• 2025-07-11 Listed $179,000 SWVAR
• 2022-11-07 Sold (Public Records) $134,900 Public Records
• 2022-11-04 Sold (MLS) $134,900 SWVAR
• 2022-08-29 Listed $139,900 SWVAR

Property tax history

-0.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $247 · -25.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.