Davidson Plan · Roxboro, NC 27574

$302,900

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,800 sqft · SingleFamily · 753 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.0/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Key facts

• 2 parking spots
• Listed 752 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area listed as 1800 (unit not restated per instructions)
• Financial info: List price: $302,900
• HOA & community: No HOA or community details provided

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces
• Security: No security details provided
• Utilities: Electric service (heating uses electric/heat pump); Central air conditioning
• Home design: Davidson plan; New construction plan (inventory type: Plan); Located at 26 Crow Field St, Roxboro NC 27574
• Construction: No construction material or year built provided
• Exterior features: Asphalt roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Plan includes standard kitchen (specific appliances not listed)
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: No flooring details provided
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating with heat pump; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Open living area (plan: Davidson)
• Laundry & utility: No laundry/utility details provided

🏗️ New construction. The $302,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $322,200.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $303k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $43 ($510/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $287k (5.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $267k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 4.5% in Roxboro — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#649 in NC) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: schools D-, crime F, amenities F.
• Person County Schools (rural): math 39% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #110 of 178 in NC (top 62%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 128 active listings in the ZIP; 113 units permitted in Person County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $34k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $32k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Person County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $90k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$55k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 753 days — a 12% lower offer ($267k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $266,552 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 753 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.57%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $322,200
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
79 Crow Field St	0.06mi	4/2.5	1,800 (0%)	23mo	$300,748	$167	78
72 Silo Ct	0.08mi	4/2.5	1,800 (0%)	22mo	$323,900	$180	78
143 Silo Ct	0.12mi	4/2.5	1,800 (0%)	22mo	$321,000	$178	76
167 Crow Field St	0.13mi	4/2.5	1,800 (0%)	23mo	$322,000	$179	75
54 Crow Field St	0.03mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,679 (-7%)	10mo	$304,900	$182	74
51 Crow Field St	0.03mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,679 (-7%)	10mo	$308,900	$184	74
311 Crooked Row Ln	0.36mi	4/2.5	1,800 (0%)	14mo	$279,900	$156	72
543 Crow Field St	0.48mi	4/2.5	1,800 (0%)	22mo	$324,000	$180	60
31 Harrow Ter	0.27mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,533 (-15%)	8mo	$266,750	$174	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.98×
• Total profit: $178,231
• Equity at exit: $290,263

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.8%
• Equity multiple: 6.80×
• Total profit: $522,817
• Equity at exit: $625,964

Cash invested: $90,216 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 27574

• Home prices YoY: 8.5%
• Active inventory: 128
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,872 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,690
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$403 /mo · $4,833/yr
• Insurance: −$134
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$603
• Net cashflow: $43

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,819

Max offer price $322,200

Occupancy floor 94%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $80,550
• Closing costs: $9,666
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $302,900 Active 753 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $302,900 Active 752 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $302,900 Active 751 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $302,900 Active 750 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $302,900 Active 748 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $302,900 Active 747 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $302,900 Active 744 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $302,900 Active 743 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $302,900 Active 742 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $302,900 Active 740 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $302,900 Active 738 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $302,900 Active 737 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $302,900 Active 736 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $302,900 Active 735 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,469
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,048
• − Property taxes: −$4,833
• − Insurance: −$1,611
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,757
• − Management: −$2,757
• − Depreciation: −$9,373
• Taxable loss: −$4,912
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,179
• After-tax cash flow: $1,689/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Person County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3703630
• Math proficiency: 39% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $43,729
• Composite: 34.3/100
• National rank: #5242
• State rank: #110 of 178 in NC

Livability — Roxboro

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #649
• US rank: #23536

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing C+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Roxboro, NC
• City population: 11,954
• Population (ZIP): 14,163

Population outlook (Person County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 38,577 people
• By 2030: 37,847 · -1.9%
• By 2040: 35,740 · -7.4%
• By 2050: 32,683 · -15.3%
• By 2075: 24,979 · -35.2%
• By 2100: 15,779 · -59.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Black 28% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Person

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.7) · D 37.7% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.2pp toward R · 2008: -8.5pp · 2024: -23.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.7 2020: R+21.6 2016: R+17.3 2012: R+11.0 2008: R+8.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 21.68%
• Current HPI: 276.8767
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B