3111 Short Leaf St · Wesley Chapel, FL
Flood risk 1/10 · Minimal
- FEMA flood zone
- X (unshaded)
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- 0.0%
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- $507 – $1,088
Fire risk 5/10 · Moderate
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- $947 – $1,759
Heat risk 9/10 · Severe
- Hot days now (above 108°F)
- 7 days/yr
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- 26 days/yr
Wind risk 9/10 · Severe
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- 99.0%
Air-quality risk 2/10 · Minimal
- Unhealthy air days now
- 1 days/yr
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- 2 days/yr
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- Cash flow +22.0/30.0
- DSCR +7.0/10.0
- 1% rule +5.6/10.0
- Schools +4.3/10.0
- Livability +4.0/5.0
- Condition / age +2.5/5.0
- Rent growth +2.4/5.0
- ARV discount +0.0/15.0
- Appreciation +0.0/10.0
$226,500
🖨 Deal sheet 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks MLS
LOVELY PALM HARBOR: So much care and pride show through this home. 3 bedroom 2 bath split plan, eat in kitchen with windows on two walls and cabinetry to store cook books and set a TV on another wall, laundry is conveniently located on one end, then you walk in to the large kitchen with ample cupboard and counter space, on to the expansive great room with living and dining, decorative fireplace and lots of natural light, master garden bath with dual sinks and separate walk in shower. Walk in closets and skylights. Being sold completely FURNISHED including furniture for the oversized private screened porch with storage. This home is immaculate and move in ready. Roof new in 2014. Larger pets ok in this gated community, your grass is mowed for you and NO lot rent. No age restriction, close to shopping, eateries and Wiregrass Town Center. Easy Tampa commute, 2 pools, 2 clubhouses and activities. You should see this home.
Key facts
- Open floor plan
- Enclosed porch
- High ceilings
Tags
Property features AI
Finance
- Other: Partially furnished; Lease restrictions apply; Homestead exemption present
- HOA & community: Has HOA (Qualified Property Mgmt / Ashley Chiorando); Monthly condo/association fee $217; Association amenities include clubhouse, gated community, playground, pool, shuffleboard court, storage; Association fees cover pool, escrow reserves, grounds maintenance, management, recreational facilities, sewer, trash, water; Association approval required; Community features include community mailbox, deed restrictions, golf carts allowed, street lights; Pets allowed with breed restrictions
Exterior
- Parking: Carport with 2 spaces; Additional parking in front of the home
- Utilities: Private well water; Public sewer; Cable connected; Electricity connected; Water connected; Sewer connected
- Home design: Manufactured double-wide home; One story; Faces north
- Construction: Vinyl siding; Frame construction; Other roof type; Crawlspace foundation; Built as a double-wide manufactured home
- Exterior features: Awning(s); Exterior lighting; Outdoor storage
Interior
- Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Range hood; Refrigerator; Eat-in kitchen
- Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
- Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
- Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
- Interior features: Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; High ceilings; Living room/dining room combo; Open floorplan; Split bedroom layout; Thermostat; Walk-in closets; Window treatments; Blinds; Double-pane windows; Storm windows
- Laundry & utility: Inside laundry room; Washer; Dryer; Electric water heater
Neighborhood map
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $226k.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $362 ($4k/yr) — positive.
- The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
- Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $226k).
- Recommended offer: $199k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
- Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 3.7% in Wesley Chapel — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 79/100 on livability (#143 in FL, #2,137 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute F.
- Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
- Zoned schools: Chester W. Taylor Jr. Elementary School (math 33% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,697 of 2,144 statewide, top 80%, 654 students, 77% FRL); Zephyrhills High School (math 35% / reading 37%, grade F, #359 of 667 statewide, top 55%, 1,656 students, 70% FRL) — zoned schools average 73% FRL vs 48% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
- Zoned-school proficiency averages 36% at this address vs 51% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Pasco average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
- Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.4%/yr); 638 active listings in the ZIP; 34 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
Forward outlook
- Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
- Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
Negotiation context
- It's been on market 328 days — a 12% lower offer ($199k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
- 3 sale attempts since 16y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $14k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
- Current owner paid $65k; list at $226k implies a 248% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Risks & watch-outs
- Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for the listing agent
- It's been on market 328 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
- What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
- Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
- The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 1.06% ✓
- Cap rate
- 8.21%
- Cash-on-cash
- 6.85%
- DSCR
- 1.30
- GRM
- 7.8
CMA / ARV
- ARV (on-the-fly)
- $160,893
- Comps found
- 7
Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi
| Address | Dist | Beds/Ba | Sqft | Sold | Price | $/sf | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3110 Beaver Creek Dr | 0.09mi | 3/2.0 | 1,560 (-2%) | 3mo | $223,500 | $143 | 90 |
| 34300 Countryside Dr | 0.07mi | 3/2.0 | 1,560 (-2%) | 7mo | $98,500 | $63 | 88 |
| 3020 Moss Hill St | 0.08mi | 3/2.0 | 1,539 (-3%) | 8mo | $155,000 | $101 | 84 |
| 3125 Briar St | 0.08mi | 3/2.0 | 1,440 (-10%) | 1mo | $170,000 | $118 | 80 |
| 3230 Bohannon Rd | 0.42mi | 3/2.0 | 1,620 (+2%) | 2mo | $153,500 | $95 | 76 |
| 3124 Pond Hollow St #183 | 0.30mi | 3/2.0 | 1,586 (-0%) | 12mo | $115,000 | $73 | 75 |
| 34334 Timberland Blvd | 0.06mi | 2/2.0 (-1) | 1,357 (-15%) | 8mo | $170,000 | $125 | 61 |
Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.
Projected returns pro-forma
-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon
- IRR
- -9.2%
- Equity multiple
- 0.67×
- Total profit
- $-20,684
- Equity at exit
- $33,772
- IRR
- -4.3%
- Equity multiple
- 0.76×
- Total profit
- $-15,518
- Equity at exit
- $19,584
Cash invested: $63,420 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
- State Florida
- 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
ZIP-level market 33543
- Home prices YoY
- -24.0%
- Rents YoY
- -0.4%
- Active inventory
- 638
- Price-to-rent
- 7.8×
Monthly cashflow live
- Estimated rent
- $2,409 high interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$1,188
- Tax from tax record
- −$42 /mo · $503/yr
- Insurance
- −$94
- HOA
- −$217
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$506
- Net cashflow
- $362
Break-even live
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $56,625
- Closing costs
- $6,795
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Rent comps 34 comps
| Address | Beds | Baths | Sqft | Rent | $/sqft | DOM | Units | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 34751 Telluride Ln Zephyrhills, FL | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1964 | $2,200 | $1.12 | 5d | 1 | 0.15mi |
| 2883 Peony Prairie Ln Wesley Chapel, FL | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1673 | $2,099 | $1.25 | 11d | 1 | 0.23mi |
| 34350 Redwood Dawn Ln Wesley Chapel, FL | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1673 | $2,350 | $1.40 | 5d | 1 | 0.24mi |
| 34276 Redwood Dawn Ln Wesley Chapel, FL | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1673 | $2,500 | $1.49 | 24d | 1 | 0.25mi |
| 2839 Maiden Grass Isle Wesley Chapel, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1546 | $2,600 | $1.68 | 24d | 1 | 0.33mi |
| 34211 Jasper Stone Dr Wesley Chapel, FL | 4.0 | 2.0 | 1852 | $3,200 | $1.73 | 24d | 1 | 0.36mi |
| 34718 Kircher Dr Zephyrhills, FL | 4.0 | 2.0 | 1970 | $2,600 | $1.32 | 24d | 1 | 0.38mi |
| 2516 Paravane Way Wesley Chapel, FL | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1373 | $2,000 | $1.46 | 24d | 1 | 0.66mi |
| 33801 Jasmine Star Loop Wesley Chapel, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1516 | $2,300 | $1.52 | 24d | 1 | 0.68mi |
| 2415 Paravane Way Wesley Chapel, FL | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1373 | $2,300 | $1.68 | 5d | 1 | 0.69mi |
| 2407 Paravane Way Wesley Chapel, FL | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1373 | $1,849 | $1.35 | 16d | 1 | 0.70mi |
| 2407 Paravane Way Wesley Chapel, FL | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1373 | $1,849 | $1.35 | 24d | 1 | 0.70mi |
| 2407 Paravane Way Wesley Chapel, FL | 3.0 | 3.0 | 1373 | $1,849 | $1.35 | 12d | 1 | 0.70mi |
| 2358 Paravane Way Wesley Chapel, FL | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1373 | $2,000 | $1.46 | 2d | 1 | 0.74mi |
| 2350 Paravane Way Wesley Chapel, FL | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1555 | $2,500 | $1.61 | 24d | 1 | 0.75mi |
| 35029 Brackett Bnd Zephyrhills, FL | 4.0 | 2.0 | 1939 | $2,400 | $1.24 | 11d | 1 | 0.81mi |
| 2308 Alee Ln Wesley Chapel, FL | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1373 | $1,825 | $1.33 | 16d | 1 | 0.81mi |
| 2313 Alee Ln Wesley Chapel, FL | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1555 | $2,000 | $1.29 | 5d | 1 | 0.81mi |
| 2264 Paravane Way Wesley Chapel, FL | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1373 | $2,000 | $1.46 | 24d | 1 | 0.83mi |
| 34142 Polacca Ln Wesley Chapel, FL | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1373 | $2,100 | $1.53 | 24d | 1 | 0.90mi |
| 2191 Hallier Cv Wesley Chapel, FL | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1373 | $1,999 | $1.46 | 24d | 1 | 0.93mi |
| 2191 Hallier Cv Wesley Chapel, FL | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1373 | $1,999 | $1.46 | 22d | 1 | 0.93mi |
| 2191 Hallier Cv Wesley Chapel, FL | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1373 | $1,900 | $1.38 | 11d | 1 | 0.93mi |
| 2187 Hallier Cv Wesley Chapel, FL | 3.0 | 3.0 | 1373 | $1,945 | $1.42 | 14d | 1 | 0.93mi |
| 35077 Ackley Trce Zephyrhills, FL | 4.0 | 2.5 | 1870 | $2,500 | $1.34 | 17d | 1 | 0.97mi |
| 2085 Hallier Cv Wesley Chapel, FL | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1373 | $2,200 | $1.60 | 5d | 1 | 1.03mi |
| 2081 Hallier Cv Wesley Chapel, FL | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1553 | $2,200 | $1.42 | 17d | 1 | 1.03mi |
| 34916 Mulrion Dr Zephyrhills, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1516 | $2,100 | $1.39 | 24d | 1 | 1.05mi |
| 36232 Lanier Oaks Pt , FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1325 | $1,700 | $1.28 | 24d | 1 | 1.06mi |
| 33780 Charleston Club Cir Wesley Chapel, FL | 1.0–2.0 | 1.0–2.0 | 977 | $2,135 | $2.19 | 2d | 11 | 1.16mi |
| 34214 Rogallo Ln Wesley Chapel, FL | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1574 | $2,050 | $1.30 | 24d | 1 | 1.26mi |
| 34214 Cinder Way Wesley Chapel, FL | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1650 | $2,200 | $1.33 | 5d | 1 | 1.31mi |
| 4410 Sailplane Ct Wesley Chapel, FL | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1574 | $2,100 | $1.33 | 24d | 1 | 1.34mi |
| 35759 Sunflower Hill Dr Zephyrhills, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1584 | $2,400 | $1.52 | 11d | 1 | 1.37mi |
HOA detail
- Monthly dues
- $217 · $2,604/yr
- Likely covers
- poolsecurity
Listing history 28 events
-
2026-06-18days on market $226,500 Active 328 DOM
-
2026-06-17days on market $226,500 Active 327 DOM
-
2026-06-16days on market $226,500 Active 326 DOM
-
2026-06-15days on market $226,500 Active 325 DOM
-
2026-06-13days on market $226,500 Active 323 DOM
-
2026-06-09days on market $226,500 Active 319 DOM
-
2026-06-08days on market $226,500 Active 318 DOM
-
2026-06-07days on market $226,500 Active 317 DOM
-
2026-06-04days on market $226,500 Active 314 DOM
-
2026-06-03days on market $226,500 Active 313 DOM
-
2026-06-02days on market $226,500 Active 312 DOM
-
2026-06-01days on market $226,500 Active 311 DOM
-
2026-05-31days on market $226,500 Active 310 DOM
-
2026-01-04price $228,000
-
2025-12-16price $230,000
-
2025-12-09price $235,000
-
2025-12-02price $237,000
-
2025-11-18price $238,000
-
2025-10-26price $238,500
-
2025-07-25$240,000 Active
-
2015-01-16soldstatus $65,000
-
2015-01-15soldstatus $65,000 Sold 933-char remark
Show marketing remark (933 chars)
LOVELY PALM HARBOR: So much care and pride show through this home. 3 bedroom 2 bath split plan, eat in kitchen with windows on two walls and cabinetry to store cook books and set a TV on another wall, laundry is conveniently located on one end, then you walk in to the large kitchen with ample cupboard and counter space, on to the expansive great room with living and dining, decorative fireplace and lots of natural light, master garden bath with dual sinks and separate walk in shower. Walk in closets and skylights. Being sold completely FURNISHED including furniture for the oversized private screened porch with storage. This home is immaculate and move in ready. Roof new in 2014. Larger pets ok in this gated community, your grass is mowed for you and NO lot rent. No age restriction, close to shopping, eateries and Wiregrass Town Center. Easy Tampa commute, 2 pools, 2 clubhouses and activities. You should see this home.
-
2014-12-29status Pending 933-char remark
Show marketing remark (933 chars)
LOVELY PALM HARBOR: So much care and pride show through this home. 3 bedroom 2 bath split plan, eat in kitchen with windows on two walls and cabinetry to store cook books and set a TV on another wall, laundry is conveniently located on one end, then you walk in to the large kitchen with ample cupboard and counter space, on to the expansive great room with living and dining, decorative fireplace and lots of natural light, master garden bath with dual sinks and separate walk in shower. Walk in closets and skylights. Being sold completely FURNISHED including furniture for the oversized private screened porch with storage. This home is immaculate and move in ready. Roof new in 2014. Larger pets ok in this gated community, your grass is mowed for you and NO lot rent. No age restriction, close to shopping, eateries and Wiregrass Town Center. Easy Tampa commute, 2 pools, 2 clubhouses and activities. You should see this home.
-
2014-12-24$67,900 Active 933-char remark
Show marketing remark (933 chars)
LOVELY PALM HARBOR: So much care and pride show through this home. 3 bedroom 2 bath split plan, eat in kitchen with windows on two walls and cabinetry to store cook books and set a TV on another wall, laundry is conveniently located on one end, then you walk in to the large kitchen with ample cupboard and counter space, on to the expansive great room with living and dining, decorative fireplace and lots of natural light, master garden bath with dual sinks and separate walk in shower. Walk in closets and skylights. Being sold completely FURNISHED including furniture for the oversized private screened porch with storage. This home is immaculate and move in ready. Roof new in 2014. Larger pets ok in this gated community, your grass is mowed for you and NO lot rent. No age restriction, close to shopping, eateries and Wiregrass Town Center. Easy Tampa commute, 2 pools, 2 clubhouses and activities. You should see this home.
-
2011-11-18soldstatus $37,500 653-char remark
Show marketing remark (653 chars)
Lovely 3BR-2BA, 1993 Palm Harbor Mobile Home on corner lot near Club house. Has nice size screened room plus storage/workshop. Fantastic gated community with night security, pool, clubhouse and ponds. You own your lot and low monthly fee includes use of amenities, water, sewer, garbage and lawn care. Easy Tampa commute and close to shopping. No age restriction and pets welcome. THIS IS A FANNIE MAE HOMEPATH PROPERTY. PURCHASE THIS HOME FOR AS LITTLE AS 3%DOWN. APPROVED FOR HOMEPATH MORTGAGE FINANCING. PROPERTY IS UNDER AUCTION TERMS AS AGENT FOR MORE DETAILS. * * * * PROPERTY CURRENTLY UNDER AUCTION TERMS ASK AGENT FOR MORE DETAILS * * * *
-
2010-08-11$59,900 653-char remark
Show marketing remark (653 chars)
Lovely 3BR-2BA, 1993 Palm Harbor Mobile Home on corner lot near Club house. Has nice size screened room plus storage/workshop. Fantastic gated community with night security, pool, clubhouse and ponds. You own your lot and low monthly fee includes use of amenities, water, sewer, garbage and lawn care. Easy Tampa commute and close to shopping. No age restriction and pets welcome. THIS IS A FANNIE MAE HOMEPATH PROPERTY. PURCHASE THIS HOME FOR AS LITTLE AS 3%DOWN. APPROVED FOR HOMEPATH MORTGAGE FINANCING. PROPERTY IS UNDER AUCTION TERMS AS AGENT FOR MORE DETAILS. * * * * PROPERTY CURRENTLY UNDER AUCTION TERMS ASK AGENT FOR MORE DETAILS * * * *
-
2003-05-28soldstatus $71,600
-
1999-04-01soldstatus $54,500
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price
- Current annual tax
- $503 · $42/mo
- Projected year-2 tax
- $1,880 · $157/mo
- Expected delta
- +$1,377/yr (+$115/mo · 273.7%)
ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.
Climate risk First Street
- Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
- Wildfire 5/10 Major
- Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
- Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
- Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $28,908
- − Mortgage interest
- −$12,688
- − Property taxes
- −$503
- − Insurance
- −$1,132
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$2,313
- − Management
- −$2,313
- − HOA
- −$2,604
- − Depreciation
- −$6,589
- Taxable income
- $766
- Est. tax owed @ 24.0%
- −$184
- After-tax cash flow
- $4,160/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Pasco
- NCES district ID
- 1201530
- Math proficiency
- 50% ▼ -10.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 52% ▼ -5.00%
- Median HH income
- $45,039
- Composite
- 43.14/100
- National rank
- #3074
- State rank
- #32 of 73 in FL
Livability — Wesley Chapel
- Score
- 79/100
- State rank
- #143
- US rank
- #2137
Category grades
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- Census place
- Wesley Chapel, FL
- County
- Pasco County · 524,098 people
- City population
- 100,771
- Metro
- Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
- Population (ZIP)
- 40,648
- Household income
- $107,349
- Rent vs Own
- Severe rent burden
- 407.0
Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 570,045 people
- By 2030
- 605,844 · +6.3%
- By 2040
- 674,806 · +18.4%
- By 2050
- 736,022 · +29.1%
- By 2075
- 862,900 · +51.4%
- By 2100
- 906,364 · +59.0%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
- Race & ethnicity
- White 51% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 15% Black 12% Asian 9%
- Hispanic origin (detail)
- Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 8% Cuban 2% Dominican 2%
- Common ancestry
- Romanian 3% Lithuanian 1% Scotch-Irish 1%
- Foreign-born
- 20% · Canada, Jamaica, China
- Languages at home
- 71% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 2% Tagalog/Filipino 2%
Political lean MEDSL · Pasco
- 2024 margin
- Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
- 2008→2024 swing
- -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
- All cycles
- 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▼ -83.13%
- Current HPI
- 263.2513
- Rent YoY
- ▼ -0.37%
- Metro
- Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 3.28%
- F500 in state
- 36
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Industrial Technology | 2 | $29B |
|
||
| Insurance | 2 | $17B |
|
||
| Retail | 1 | $60B |
|
||
| Technology Distribution | 1 | $58B |
|
||
| Homebuilding | 1 | $35B |
|
||
| Technology Manufacturing | 1 | $35B |
|
||
Price history
+318.3% since first listed15 events — show timeline
- 2026-01-04 Price Changed $228,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2025-12-16 Price Changed $230,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2025-12-09 Price Changed $235,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2025-12-02 Price Changed $237,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2025-11-18 Price Changed $238,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2025-10-26 Price Changed $238,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2025-07-25 Listed $240,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2015-01-16 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records
- 2015-01-15 Sold (MLS) $65,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2014-12-29 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2014-12-24 Listed $67,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2011-11-18 Sold (MLS) $37,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2010-08-11 Listed $59,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2003-05-28 Sold (Public Records) $71,600 Public Records
- 1999-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $54,500 Public Records
Property tax history
-5.2%/yrLatest (2025): $503 · +5.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…