25383 Moss Cir · Cleveland, TX 77328

$160,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 936 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 41 Days on market

Built 1983 0.34 ac lot $172/sqft · 14% below area Est $187k · 14% under $2/mo HOA ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.1/30.0
• ARV discount +13.7/15.0
• DSCR +7.4/10.0
• 1% rule +6.2/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Cozy, vintage, cottage style home on approximately 1/3 of an acre. Own a little piece of country while still being close to amenities. Do you like the beach? The bathroom has beautiful tile that reflects the love of the beach. This home has much to offer someone with vision and TLC. The roof was recently replaced, as well as a new carport with the roof line extended to the house for one seamless look. The living area has been repainted, and the home has fiber optic. A new water heater was also installed. AC needs to be replaced or repaired if possible and propane tank needs to be replaced or inspected. Room sizes are approximate. Seller would consider selling lot 514 next door if buyer inte

Key facts

• New carport
• Fiber optic
• Beautiful tile

Tags

• VINTAGE COTTAGE STYLE
• APPROXIMATELY 1/3 OF AN ACRE
• BEAUTIFUL TILE
• RECENTLY REPLACED ROOF
• NEW CARPORT
• FIBER OPTIC

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot approximately 0.344 acres
• Financial info: Lease not considered
• HOA & community: Has association; Association fee $24 annually

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; 1 garage space
• Security: No specific security features listed
• Utilities: Septic tank
• Home design: Residential property; Full ownership; One-story (single level) dwelling
• Construction: Brick construction; Built in 1983; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Cleared lot; Located on a cul-de-sac

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen features not specified
• Bedrooms: Bedrooms not specified
• Flooring: Flooring details not specified
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Propane heating; Window unit(s) for cooling; Has heating and cooling
• Interior features: 6 total rooms; Seller disclosure available
• Laundry & utility: Laundry details not specified

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $161k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $290 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $161k).
• Recommended offer: $156k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 4.7% in Cleveland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#1,013 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Splendora ISD (rural): math 25% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #648 of 826 in TX (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Greenleaf El (math 28% / reading 25%, grade F, #2,927 of 4,322 statewide, top 68%, 797 students, 70% FRL); Splendora J H (math 28% / reading 42%, grade F, #842 of 1,662 statewide, top 51%, 774 students, 62% FRL); Splendora H S (math 18% / reading 38%, grade F, #1,170 of 1,632 statewide, top 72%, 1,344 students, 59% FRL).
• Market conditions: 339 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($156k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $156,073 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.12% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.73%
• DSCR: 1.34
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $186,752
• List price: $160,900
• Delta: -13.84%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 17 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
25372 Spruce Ln	0.15mi	2/1.0	850 (-9%)	13mo	$149,900	$176	67
25561 Spruce Ln	0.20mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,056 (+13%)	20mo	$160,000	$152	43
10423 Red Cardinal Drive Dr	0.57mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,076 (+15%)	8mo	$228,900	$213	33
10411 Red Cardinal Drive Dr	0.60mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,076 (+15%)	7mo	$228,900	$213	32
10435 Red Cardinal Drive Dr	0.54mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,076 (+15%)	21mo	$225,900	$210	23

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.83×
• Total profit: $-7,560
• Equity at exit: $23,991

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.39×
• Total profit: $17,364
• Equity at exit: $13,912

Cash invested: $45,052 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77328

• Home prices YoY: -7.7%
• Active inventory: 339
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,800 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$844
• Tax from tax record: −$219 /mo · $2,626/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$2
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$378
• Net cashflow: $290

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,432

Max offer price $160,900

Occupancy floor 79%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $381	-5% $336	+0% $290	+5% $245	+10% $199
Rent	-10% $148	-5% $219	+0% $290	+5% $361	+10% $432
Rate	-1.0pp $371	-0.5pp $331	base $290	+0.5pp $248	+1.0pp $206

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,225
• Closing costs: $4,827
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
25507 Greenwood Canyon Dr Cleveland, TX	3.0–5.0	2.0–3.5	1950	$1,875	$0.96	0d	1	0.21mi
10387 Red Cardinal Dr Cleveland, TX	3.0	2.0	1076	$1,830	$1.70	44d	1	0.67mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $2 · $24/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $160,900 Active 41 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $160,900 Active 38 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $160,900 Active 37 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $160,900 Active 36 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $160,900 Active 35 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $160,900 Active 33 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $160,900 Active 32 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $165,900 Active 29 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $165,900 Active 28 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $165,900 Active 27 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $165,900 Active 24 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $165,900 Active 23 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $165,900 Active 22 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $165,900 Active 21 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $165,900 Active 20 DOM
16. 2026-05-11
    listed $165,900 Active 706-char remark
17. 1999-04-06
    soldstatus
18. 1989-11-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,626 · $219/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,944 · $245/mo
• Expected delta: +$318/yr (+$27/mo · 12.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,595
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,013
• − Property taxes: −$2,626
• − Insurance: −$804
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,728
• − Management: −$1,728
• − HOA: −$24
• − Depreciation: −$4,681
• Taxable income: $992
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$238
• After-tax cash flow: $3,242/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Splendora ISD
• NCES district ID: 4841070
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $54,166
• Composite: 24.92/100
• National rank: #7572
• State rank: #648 of 826 in TX

Livability — Cleveland

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #1013
• US rank: #17943

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: San Jacinto County · 17,208 people
• City population: 17,208
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 17,208
• Household income: $62,428
• Rent vs Own: 20.5% rent · 79.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 58.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (61%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 14% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 3% Serbian 3%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 31% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -22.82%
• Current HPI: 273.6604
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-3.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Price Changed $160,900 HARMLS
• 2026-05-11 Listed $165,900 HARMLS
• 1999-04-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1989-11-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,626 · +4.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.