20335 E Wagon Wheel Cir · Black Canyon City, AZ 85324

$214,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · Manufactured public records · 50 Days on market

Built 2001 1.23 ac lot Est $293k · 27% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Almost like new 1568 sq ft Manufactured home on 1.32 acres. 3 Bdrm plus Den, brand new kitchen appliances, newly painted, some new flooring and the rest looks like new. Huge 5-car steel and insulated detached garage, previous owner used for restoring cars, 60-80 gal horizontal compressor plumbed inside garage, 1/2 Bath in gargage, Master Cool in garage. Room for horse-Storage shed large enough to be tack room. Outstanding property for the price!

Key facts

• Bonus room
• Detached outbuilding
• Convenience shopping

Tags

• MODERN MANUFACTURED HOME
• BONUS ROOM
• DETACHED OUTBUILDING
• NEARBY ACCESS TO I-17
• LOCAL DINING
• CONVENIENCE SHOPPING

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Conventional financing available (non-assumable)
• HOA & community: No association fees

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; 5 covered parking spaces; 5 garage spaces
• Utilities: Propane; City water; Septic (partial hookup and connected)
• Home design: Manufactured / mobile home; Fee simple ownership; Mountain views
• Construction: Wood frame construction; Painted exterior; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Storage; Chain-link and partial fencing; Adjacent to a wash; Dirt front and dirt back

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen island; Pantry; Dishwasher; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: 3 possible bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Linoleum
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Double vanity; Eat-in kitchen; Kitchen island; Pantry; Primary bedroom with full bathroom; Separate shower and tub
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $215k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $89 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $199k (7.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $199k (7.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#213 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Canon Elementary District (4484) (rural): math 25% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #294 of 501 in AZ (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Canon School (math 17% / reading 17%, grade F, #814 of 1,109 statewide, top 76%, 131 students, 93% FRL) — zoned schools average 93% FRL vs 65% district-wide (28 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 17% at this address vs 30% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Canon Elementary District (4484) average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 45 active listings in the ZIP; 2,062 units permitted in Yavapai County in 2024 (98 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $23k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $21k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Yavapai County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $60k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 50 days — a 3% lower offer ($208k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $145k; 48% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $199,267 (7.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 50 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 7% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.78%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $292,656
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
34311 S Luellen Dr	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,441 (-1%)	9mo	$289,900	$201	63
19741 E Indian Hills Dr	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,345 (-8%)	2mo	$256,000	$190	62
33508 S Gem Pl	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,474 (+1%)	20mo	$315,000	$214	62
20405 E Wagon Wheel Cir	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,345 (-8%)	22mo	$294,000	$219	62
19768 E Squaw Valley Dr	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,577 (+8%)	8mo	$250,000	$159	47
19861 E Trail Rd	0.70mi	2/1.8 (-1)	1,512 (+4%)	13mo	$280,000	$185	44
33589 S Melanie Ln	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,248 (-14%)	13mo	$325,000	$260	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.04×
• Total profit: $122,744
• Equity at exit: $193,599

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.5%
• Equity multiple: 6.93×
• Total profit: $357,059
• Equity at exit: $417,503

Cash invested: $60,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85324

• Home prices YoY: 7.5%
• Active inventory: 45
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,993 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$269 /mo · $3,224/yr
• Insurance: −$90
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$418
• Net cashflow: $89

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,880

Max offer price $214,900

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $238	-5% $163	+0% $89	+5% $15	+10% $-59
Rent	-10% $-68	-5% $10	+0% $89	+5% $168	+10% $247
Rate	-1.0pp $197	-0.5pp $144	base $89	+0.5pp $33	+1.0pp $-23

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,725
• Closing costs: $6,447
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-05-20
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-15
   historical Under Contract Accepting Backups
3. 2026-04-11
   price $214,900
4. 2026-03-20
   listed $225,000 Active
5. 2009-02-18
   soldstatus $145,000 453-char remark

   Show marketing remark (453 chars)

   Almost like new 1568 sq ft Manufactured home on 1.32 acres. 3 Bdrm plus Den, brand new kitchen appliances, newly painted, some new flooring and the rest looks like new. Huge 5-car steel and insulated detached garage, previous owner used for restoring cars, 60-80 gal horizontal compressor plumbed inside garage, 1/2 Bath in gargage, Master Cool in garage. Room for horse-Storage shed large enough to be tack room. Outstanding property for the price!

6. 2009-02-18
   soldstatus $145,000

   Show marketing remark (453 chars)

   Almost like new 1568 sq ft Manufactured home on 1.32 acres. 3 Bdrm plus Den, brand new kitchen appliances, newly painted, some new flooring and the rest looks like new. Huge 5-car steel and insulated detached garage, previous owner used for restoring cars, 60-80 gal horizontal compressor plumbed inside garage, 1/2 Bath in gargage, Master Cool in garage. Room for horse-Storage shed large enough to be tack room. Outstanding property for the price!

7. 2008-10-14
   listed $135,000 453-char remark

   Show marketing remark (453 chars)

   Almost like new 1568 sq ft Manufactured home on 1.32 acres. 3 Bdrm plus Den, brand new kitchen appliances, newly painted, some new flooring and the rest looks like new. Huge 5-car steel and insulated detached garage, previous owner used for restoring cars, 60-80 gal horizontal compressor plumbed inside garage, 1/2 Bath in gargage, Master Cool in garage. Room for horse-Storage shed large enough to be tack room. Outstanding property for the price!

8. 1995-01-25
   soldstatus $39,500
9. 1985-06-04
   soldstatus $25,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,912
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,038
• − Property taxes: −$3,224
• − Insurance: −$1,074
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,913
• − Management: −$1,913
• − Depreciation: −$6,252
• Taxable loss: −$2,501
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$600
• After-tax cash flow: $1,669/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Canon Elementary District (4484)
• NCES district ID: 0401650
• Math proficiency: 25% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $37,755
• Composite: 27.85/100
• National rank: #12286
• State rank: #294 of 501 in AZ

Livability — Black Canyon City

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #213
• US rank: #21226

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Black Canyon City, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 2,297

Population outlook (Yavapai County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 241,389 people
• By 2030: 249,523 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 259,966 · +7.7%
• By 2050: 264,736 · +9.7%
• By 2075: 269,334 · +11.6%
• By 2100: 256,505 · +6.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 5% Serbian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · Yavapai

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.9) · D 32.6% · R 66.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.5pp toward R · 2008: -24.4pp · 2024: -33.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.9 2020: R+29.3 2016: R+31.4 2012: R+30.7 2008: R+24.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 29.16%
• Current HPI: 417.6032
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+759.6% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Pending — ARMLS
• 2026-04-15 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2026-04-11 Price Changed $214,900 ARMLS
• 2026-03-20 Listed $225,000 ARMLS
• 2009-02-18 Sold (Public Records) $145,000 Public Records
• 2009-02-18 Sold (MLS) $145,000 ARMLS
• 2008-10-14 Listed $135,000 ARMLS
• 1995-01-25 Sold (Public Records) $39,500 Public Records
• 1985-06-04 Sold (Public Records) $25,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-10.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $168 · +24.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.