Residence 1 Plan · Rancho Cordova, CA 95742

$519,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,342 sqft · SingleFamily · 199 Days on market

↓ 25% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +4.6/30.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.5/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Residence One: A thoughtfully designed single-story home offering open-concept living with a spacious great room, modern kitchen with pantry, and a private primary suite complete with a walk-in closet. . Ideal for first-time buyers or those looking to downsize without compromise. Enjoy the luxuries included in a Cresleigh Home such as hand set tiles in entry way, kitchen and wet areas, large eat-in kitchen island, ample storage, and All-Ready Smart Home package.

Key facts

• Hand set tiles
• Walk-in closet
• Modern kitchen

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING
• MODERN KITCHEN
• PRIVATE PRIMARY SUITE
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• HAND SET TILES
• LARGE EAT-IN KITCHEN ISLAND

🏗️ New construction. The $519,000 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $575,869.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $519k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-18k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $365k (29.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $319k (38.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $319k (38.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#268 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, employment B; Watch: schools C-, commute C-, crime D.
• Elk Grove Unified (suburban): math 40% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #165 of 517 in CA (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.1%/yr); 471 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 6,825 units permitted in Sacramento County in 2024 (1,752 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $62k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $58k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Sacramento County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$99k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 199 days — a 12% lower offer ($457k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $319,061 (38.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 199 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 39% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.55% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.25%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.86%
• DSCR: 0.52
• GRM: 15.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $575,869
• List price: $519,000
• Delta: -9.88%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4176 Choteau Cir	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,451 (+8%)	2mo	$528,000	$364	68
4221 Borderlands Dr	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,468 (+9%)	6mo	$525,000	$358	61
12304 Pawcatuck Way	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,468 (+9%)	5mo	$500,000	$341	58
12316 Pawcatuck Way	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,468 (+9%)	6mo	$530,000	$361	56
4038 Pinoche Peak Way	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,451 (+8%)	6mo	$540,000	$372	56
12241 Conservancy Way	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,543 (+15%)	10mo	$535,000	$347	56
12372 Pawcatuck Way	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,468 (+9%)	1mo	$540,000	$368	55
12436 Pawcatuck Way	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,468 (+9%)	1mo	$510,000	$347	55
3936 Valance Way	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,390 (+4%)	15mo	$548,442	$395	55
3916 Valance Way	0.52mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,400 (+4%)	12mo	$584,950	$418	54
3948 Valance Way	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,390 (+4%)	16mo	$568,829	$409	53
4087 Preserve Way	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,543 (+15%)	4mo	$510,000	$331	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 2.08% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.35×
• Total profit: $217,823
• Equity at exit: $518,788

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.6%
• Equity multiple: 5.40×
• Total profit: $708,910
• Equity at exit: $1,118,786

Cash invested: $161,243 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95742

• Home prices YoY: 28.3%
• Rents YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 471
• Price-to-rent: 13.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,191 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,020
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$720 /mo · $8,638/yr
• Insurance: −$240
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$670
• Net cashflow: $-1,459

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,038

Max offer price $364,732

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,061	-5% $-1,260	+0% $-1,459	+5% $-1,658	+10% $-1,857
Rent	-10% $-1,711	-5% $-1,585	+0% $-1,459	+5% $-1,333	+10% $-1,207
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,169	-0.5pp $-1,313	base $-1,459	+0.5pp $-1,608	+1.0pp $-1,760

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $143,967
• Closing costs: $17,276
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4143 Cahakia Pl Rancho Cordova, CA	3.0	2.0	1650	$2,795	$1.69	44d	1	0.57mi
11688 Giacinta Ln Rancho Cordova, CA	4.0	2.5	1765	$3,499	$1.98	13d	1	1.22mi
11664 Giacinta Ln Rancho Cordova, CA	3.0	2.5	1529	$3,199	$2.09	2d	1	1.24mi
11684 Fiorenza Ln Rancho Cordova, CA	4.0	2.5	1765	$3,529	$2.00	23d	1	1.24mi
4071 Quorra Pl Rancho Cordova, CA	3.0	2.5	1600	$3,279	$2.05	2d	1	1.25mi
11643 Giacinta Ln Rancho Cordova, CA	3.0	2.5	1529	$3,169	$2.07	24d	1	1.28mi
11641 Fiorenza Ln Rancho Cordova, CA	3.0	2.5	1600	$3,189	$1.99	44d	1	1.28mi
12579 Bellmead Way Rancho Cordova, CA	3.0	2.0	1603	$2,650	$1.65	4d	1	1.31mi
11617 Venitia Ln Rancho Cordova, CA	3.0	2.5	1600	$3,249	$2.03	8d	1	1.34mi
4328 Greenshank Cir Rancho Cordova, CA	4.0	2.0	1800	$3,100	$1.72	44d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $519,000 Active 199 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $519,000 Active 196 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $519,000 Active 195 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $519,000 Active 194 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $519,000 Active 193 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $519,000 Active 191 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $519,000 Active 190 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $519,000 Active 187 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $519,000 Active 186 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $519,000 Active 185 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $519,000 Active 182 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $519,000 Active 181 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $519,000 Active 180 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $519,000 Active 179 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $519,000 Active 178 DOM
16. 2026-03-31
    price $519,000 466-char remark

    Show marketing remark (466 chars)

    Residence One: A thoughtfully designed single-story home offering open-concept living with a spacious great room, modern kitchen with pantry, and a private primary suite complete with a walk-in closet. . Ideal for first-time buyers or those looking to downsize without compromise. Enjoy the luxuries included in a Cresleigh Home such as hand set tiles in entry way, kitchen and wet areas, large eat-in kitchen island, ample storage, and All-Ready Smart Home package.

17. 2025-12-04
    listed $510,000 Active 466-char remark

    Show marketing remark (466 chars)

    Residence One: A thoughtfully designed single-story home offering open-concept living with a spacious great room, modern kitchen with pantry, and a private primary suite complete with a walk-in closet. . Ideal for first-time buyers or those looking to downsize without compromise. Enjoy the luxuries included in a Cresleigh Home such as hand set tiles in entry way, kitchen and wet areas, large eat-in kitchen island, ample storage, and All-Ready Smart Home package.

18. 2025-08-31
    listed $693,000 Active 653-char remark

    Show marketing remark (653 chars)

    Residence One is the smallest of the floor plans offered at Magnolia Station but at 2,293 square feet, there is plenty of space in this single story home. . With three bedrooms, two bathrooms, den, great room, and dining room, there is enough room for all members of the family to have their corner of the house. The two car garage boasts ample storage and a covered patio comes included in the home. The den can easily be transformed into a fourth bedroom if needed. Enjoy the luxuries included in a Cresleigh Home such as hand set tiles in entry way, kitchen and wet areas, large eat-in kitchen island, ample storage, and All-Ready Smart Home package.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,287
• − Mortgage interest: −$32,258
• − Property taxes: −$8,638
• − Insurance: −$2,879
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,063
• − Management: −$3,063
• − Depreciation: −$16,753
• Taxable loss: −$28,366
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$6,808
• After-tax cash flow: $-10,702/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Elk Grove Unified
• NCES district ID: 0612330
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $67,860
• Composite: 40.72/100
• National rank: #3658
• State rank: #165 of 517 in CA

Livability — Rancho Cordova

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #268
• US rank: #9126

Category grades

Amenities C Commute C- Cost of living F Crime D Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rancho Cordova, CA
• County: Sacramento County · 1,539,646 people
• City population: 98,329
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• Population (ZIP): 17,768
• Household income: $155,855
• Rent vs Own: 13.4% rent · 86.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 172.0

Population outlook (Sacramento County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,660,763 people
• By 2030: 1,732,990 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 1,855,755 · +11.7%
• By 2050: 1,941,335 · +16.9%
• By 2075: 2,046,162 · +23.2%
• By 2100: 1,961,444 · +18.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.72)
• Race & ethnicity: White 42% Asian 28% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 13% Black 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 2% Subsaharan African 2%
• Foreign-born: 25% · China, South Korea, Canada
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 7% Other Indo-European 7% Tagalog/Filipino 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Sacramento

• 2024 margin: D (+19.7) · D 58.1% · R 38.4% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.7pp no change · 2008: 19.0pp · 2024: 19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.7 2020: D+25.3 2016: D+23.7 2012: D+16.3 2008: D+19.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 52.05%
• Current HPI: 236.1388
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.08%
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-25.1% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $519,000 Zillow
• 2025-12-04 Listed $510,000 Zillow
• 2025-08-31 Listed $693,000 Zillow