28 Plantation Dr · Mayflower, AR 72106

$297,500

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,897 sqft · SingleFamily · 239 Days on market

Built 2026 0.35 ac lot $157/sqft · 8% below area Est $323k · 8% under ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.0/15.0
• Appreciation +9.8/10.0
• Cash flow +5.3/30.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Jubilant Justin plan in River Plantation, located in Mayflower, Arkansas! These new construction homes feature modern finishes for comfortable living! The Lakeway plan features a separate office space! Each home has LVP flooring throughout common areas and carpet in bedrooms and closets. In the kitchen and bathrooms, you’ll find beautiful quartz countertops. The primary bathroom features a walk-in shower and a quartz, double sink vanity! Each home will have 4-sides brick with Hardie® siding per plan. Homes will include only PARTIAL sod in back. These homes come with a programmable thermostat! 10-year limited Homebuyer’s Warranty! All photos are stock photos, representative of plan only and may vary as built. These homes will have a grinder pump. Annual taxes is an estimate. Taxes and parcel are TBD. This property will be under a Bill of Assurance (BOA) that contain Covenants and restrictions for these homes.

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• 4-sides brick
• Hardie siding

Tags

• LVP FLOORING
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• WALK-IN SHOWER
• DOUBLE SINK VANITY
• 4-SIDES BRICK
• HARDIE SIDING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $298k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-657 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $202k (31.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $177k (40.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $177k (40.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.6% vs local median 4.8% in Mayflower — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#390 in AR) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Mayflower School District (rural): math 32% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #127 of 238 in AR (top 53%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 110 active listings in the ZIP; 865 units permitted in Faulkner County in 2024 (451 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $31k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $29k appreciation (9.6% local appreciation)).
• Faulkner County population projected at +32% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$49k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 239 days — a 12% lower offer ($262k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $177,143 (40.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 239 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 40% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.60% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.64%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.46%
• DSCR: 0.58
• GRM: 14.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $322,702
• List price: $297,500
• Delta: -7.81%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
20 Plantation Dr	0.07mi	4/2.0	1,897 (0%)	2mo	$300,500	$158	95
30 Plantation Dr	0.02mi	4/2.0	1,993 (+5%)	2mo	$290,000	$146	89
22 Plantation Dr	0.05mi	4/2.0	1,993 (+5%)	2mo	$290,000	$146	88
23 Plantation	0.05mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,927 (+2%)	4mo	$320,000	$166	87
24 Plantation Dr	0.03mi	4/3.0	2,113 (+11%)	4mo	$325,000	$154	72
16 Plantation Dr	0.10mi	4/3.0	2,113 (+11%)	3mo	$304,500	$144	70
18 River Road Dr	0.47mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,914 (+1%)	18mo	$335,000	$175	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

9.62% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.35×
• Total profit: $112,479
• Equity at exit: $259,756

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.0%
• Equity multiple: 5.35×
• Total profit: $362,239
• Equity at exit: $551,615

Cash invested: $83,300 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72106

• Home prices YoY: 4.2%
• Active inventory: 110
• Price-to-rent: 14.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,771 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,560
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$372 /mo · $4,462/yr
• Insurance: −$124
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$372
• Net cashflow: $-657

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,602

Max offer price $202,500

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-451	-5% $-554	+0% $-657	+5% $-759	+10% $-862
Rent	-10% $-796	-5% $-726	+0% $-657	+5% $-587	+10% $-517
Rate	-1.0pp $-507	-0.5pp $-581	base $-657	+0.5pp $-734	+1.0pp $-812

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,375
• Closing costs: $8,925
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $297,500 Active 239 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $297,500 Active 238 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $297,500 Active 237 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $297,500 Active 236 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $297,500 Active 234 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $297,500 Active 231 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $297,500 Active 230 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $297,500 Active 229 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $297,500 Active 228 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $297,500 Active 225 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $297,500 Active 224 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $297,500 Active 223 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $297,500 Active 222 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $297,500 Active 221 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $297,500 Active 220 DOM
16. 2026-04-21
    price $297,500 937-char remark

    Show marketing remark (937 chars)

    Jubilant Justin plan in River Plantation, located in Mayflower, Arkansas! These new construction homes feature modern finishes for comfortable living! The Lakeway plan features a separate office space! Each home has LVP flooring throughout common areas and carpet in bedrooms and closets. In the kitchen and bathrooms, you’ll find beautiful quartz countertops. The primary bathroom features a walk-in shower and a quartz, double sink vanity! Each home will have 4-sides brick with Hardie® siding per plan. Homes will include only PARTIAL sod in back. These homes come with a programmable thermostat! 10-year limited Homebuyer’s Warranty! All photos are stock photos, representative of plan only and may vary as built. These homes will have a grinder pump. Annual taxes is an estimate. Taxes and parcel are TBD. This property will be under a Bill of Assurance (BOA) that contain Covenants and restrictions for these homes.

17. 2026-04-18
    price $297,500 235-char remark

    Show marketing remark (235 chars)

    The property is located at 28 Plantation Dr MAYFLOWER AR 72106 priced at 297500, the square foot and stories are 1897, 1.The number of bath is 2, halfbath is 0 there are 4 bedrooms and 2 garages. For more details please, call or email.

18. 2026-03-28
    price $300,500 235-char remark

    Show marketing remark (937 chars)

    Jubilant Justin plan in River Plantation, located in Mayflower, Arkansas! These new construction homes feature modern finishes for comfortable living! The Lakeway plan features a separate office space! Each home has LVP flooring throughout common areas and carpet in bedrooms and closets. In the kitchen and bathrooms, you’ll find beautiful quartz countertops. The primary bathroom features a walk-in shower and a quartz, double sink vanity! Each home will have 4-sides brick with Hardie® siding per plan. Homes will include only PARTIAL sod in back. These homes come with a programmable thermostat! 10-year limited Homebuyer’s Warranty! All photos are stock photos, representative of plan only and may vary as built. These homes will have a grinder pump. Annual taxes is an estimate. Taxes and parcel are TBD. This property will be under a Bill of Assurance (BOA) that contain Covenants and restrictions for these homes.

19. 2026-03-28
    price $300,500 937-char remark

    Show marketing remark (937 chars)

    Jubilant Justin plan in River Plantation, located in Mayflower, Arkansas! These new construction homes feature modern finishes for comfortable living! The Lakeway plan features a separate office space! Each home has LVP flooring throughout common areas and carpet in bedrooms and closets. In the kitchen and bathrooms, you’ll find beautiful quartz countertops. The primary bathroom features a walk-in shower and a quartz, double sink vanity! Each home will have 4-sides brick with Hardie® siding per plan. Homes will include only PARTIAL sod in back. These homes come with a programmable thermostat! 10-year limited Homebuyer’s Warranty! All photos are stock photos, representative of plan only and may vary as built. These homes will have a grinder pump. Annual taxes is an estimate. Taxes and parcel are TBD. This property will be under a Bill of Assurance (BOA) that contain Covenants and restrictions for these homes.

20. 2026-02-19
    price $284,000 235-char remark

    Show marketing remark (235 chars)

    The property is located at 28 Plantation Dr MAYFLOWER AR 72106 priced at 297500, the square foot and stories are 1897, 1.The number of bath is 2, halfbath is 0 there are 4 bedrooms and 2 garages. For more details please, call or email.

21. 2026-02-17
    price $284,000 937-char remark

    Show marketing remark (937 chars)

    Jubilant Justin plan in River Plantation, located in Mayflower, Arkansas! These new construction homes feature modern finishes for comfortable living! The Lakeway plan features a separate office space! Each home has LVP flooring throughout common areas and carpet in bedrooms and closets. In the kitchen and bathrooms, you’ll find beautiful quartz countertops. The primary bathroom features a walk-in shower and a quartz, double sink vanity! Each home will have 4-sides brick with Hardie® siding per plan. Homes will include only PARTIAL sod in back. These homes come with a programmable thermostat! 10-year limited Homebuyer’s Warranty! All photos are stock photos, representative of plan only and may vary as built. These homes will have a grinder pump. Annual taxes is an estimate. Taxes and parcel are TBD. This property will be under a Bill of Assurance (BOA) that contain Covenants and restrictions for these homes.

22. 2025-12-12
    listed $304,000 Active 235-char remark

    Show marketing remark (235 chars)

    The property is located at 28 Plantation Dr MAYFLOWER AR 72106 priced at 297500, the square foot and stories are 1897, 1.The number of bath is 2, halfbath is 0 there are 4 bedrooms and 2 garages. For more details please, call or email.

23. 2025-10-22
    listed $304,000 New Listing 937-char remark

    Show marketing remark (937 chars)

    Jubilant Justin plan in River Plantation, located in Mayflower, Arkansas! These new construction homes feature modern finishes for comfortable living! The Lakeway plan features a separate office space! Each home has LVP flooring throughout common areas and carpet in bedrooms and closets. In the kitchen and bathrooms, you’ll find beautiful quartz countertops. The primary bathroom features a walk-in shower and a quartz, double sink vanity! Each home will have 4-sides brick with Hardie® siding per plan. Homes will include only PARTIAL sod in back. These homes come with a programmable thermostat! 10-year limited Homebuyer’s Warranty! All photos are stock photos, representative of plan only and may vary as built. These homes will have a grinder pump. Annual taxes is an estimate. Taxes and parcel are TBD. This property will be under a Bill of Assurance (BOA) that contain Covenants and restrictions for these homes.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 10% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,257
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,665
• − Property taxes: −$4,462
• − Insurance: −$1,488
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,701
• − Management: −$1,701
• − Depreciation: −$8,655
• Taxable loss: −$13,413
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,219
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,659/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mayflower School District
• NCES district ID: 0509540
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $47,119
• Composite: 28.41/100
• National rank: #6760
• State rank: #127 of 238 in AR

Livability — Mayflower

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #390
• US rank: #22893

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C+ Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 5,719

Population outlook (Faulkner County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,985 people
• By 2030: 148,264 · +6.7%
• By 2040: 166,010 · +19.4%
• By 2050: 183,362 · +31.9%
• By 2075: 224,593 · +61.6%
• By 2100: 250,603 · +80.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Two or more races 7% Black 6% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · Faulkner

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+32.3) · D 32.6% · R 64.9% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.1pp toward R · 2008: -25.3pp · 2024: -32.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+32.3 2020: R+29.5 2016: R+31.6 2012: R+31.7 2008: R+25.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 9.62%
• Current HPI: 236.6197
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

-2.1% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $297,500 CARMLS
• 2026-04-18 Price Changed $297,500 Zillow
• 2026-03-28 Price Changed $300,500 Zillow
• 2026-03-28 Price Changed $300,500 CARMLS
• 2026-02-19 Price Changed $284,000 Zillow
• 2026-02-17 Price Changed $284,000 CARMLS
• 2025-12-12 Listed $304,000 Zillow
• 2025-10-22 Listed $304,000 CARMLS