1200 Pioneer Trl · Mandan, ND 58554

$28,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 784 sqft · Manufactured · 32 Days on market

Built 1976 Good condition 3,784 sqft lot Est $24k · 19% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Thoughtful updates
• Functional layout
• Large front deck

Tags

• VERSATILE OFFICE SPACE
• LARGE FRONT DECK
• OFF-STREET PARKING
• FUNCTIONAL LAYOUT
• MOVE-IN-READY LIVING
• THOUGHTFUL UPDATES

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Located in Gateway Mobile Home Park

Exterior

• Parking: No parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured home (single wide); Residential property
• Construction: Built with other construction materials
• Exterior features: Exterior storage

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: No heating; No cooling
• Interior features: Range; Refrigerator; No basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $28k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $650 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $28k).
• Recommended offer: $27k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 34.1% vs local median 2.7% in Mandan — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#76 in ND) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment A; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Mandan 1 (suburban): math 35% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #32 of 53 in ND (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Mandan Middle School (math 36% / reading 40%, grade F, #21 of 35 statewide, top 59%, 928 students, 30% FRL); Mandan High School (math 18% / reading 42%, grade F, #90 of 144 statewide, top 66%, 1,138 students, 25% FRL) — zoned schools at 28% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+14.0%/yr); 304 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 94 units permitted in Morton County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 16% of the median local income ($80k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $194 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $840 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Morton County population projected at +48% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($27k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $27,160 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.81% ✓
• Cap rate: 34.14%
• Cash-on-cash: 99.47%
• DSCR: 5.43
• GRM: 2.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $23,520
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
209 Gateway Trl	0.18mi	3/1.0 (+1)	840 (+7%)	4mo	$25,000	$30	72
703 6th Ave SE	0.59mi	2/1.0	785 (+0%)	6mo	$55,000	$70	68
703 6th Ave SE Unit D12	0.59mi	2/1.0	804 (+3%)	8mo	$8,900	$11	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 6.42×
• Total profit: $42,510
• Equity at exit: $4,175

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 15.80×
• Total profit: $116,055
• Equity at exit: $2,421

Cash invested: $7,840 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Dakota: 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+20
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 58554

• Rents YoY: 14.0%
• Active inventory: 304
• Price-to-rent: 2.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,068 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$147
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$35 /mo · $420/yr
• Insurance: −$12
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$224
• Net cashflow: $650

Break-even live

Break-even rent $245

Max offer price $28,000

Occupancy floor 34%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $7,000
• Closing costs: $840
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
100 1st St NW Mandan, ND	1.0–2.0	1.0	887	$1,150	$1.30	21d	11	0.79mi
112 2nd Ave NW Mandan, ND	1.0	1.0	776	$900	$1.16	21d	1	0.87mi
1504 Shannon Dr NE Mandan, ND	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,000	$1.00	21d	1	1.10mi
611 9th Ave SW Mandan, ND	2.0	1.0	942	$1,125	$1.19	21d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $28,000 Active 32 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $28,000 Active 31 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $28,000 Active 30 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $28,000 Active 29 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $28,000 Active 28 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $28,000 Active 26 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $28,000 Active 25 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $28,000 Active 23 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $28,000 Active 22 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $28,000 Active 21 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $28,000 Active 20 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $28,000 Active 17 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $28,000 Active 16 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $28,000 Active 15 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $28,000 Active 14 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $28,000 Active 13 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $28,000 Active 12 DOM
18. 2026-05-18
    listed $28,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (shaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 12 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,810
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,568
• − Property taxes: −$420
• − Insurance: −$140
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,025
• − Management: −$1,025
• − Depreciation: −$815
• Taxable income: $7,818
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,876
• After-tax cash flow: $5,922/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 11 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This manufactured home is in good condition with a cosmetic rehab level, ready for minor updates to enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Replace deck and railing — Improves safety and adds value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace deck and railing — Improves safety and adds value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mandan 1
• NCES district ID: 3811820
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $60,131
• Composite: 32.55/100
• National rank: #5692
• State rank: #32 of 53 in ND

Livability — Mandan

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #76
• US rank: #7567

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mandan, ND
• County: Morton County · 29,479 people
• City population: 29,479
• Metro: Bismarck, ND
• Population (ZIP): 29,479
• Household income: $80,120
• Rent vs Own: 27.2% rent · 72.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 915.0

Population outlook (Morton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 36,682 people
• By 2030: 39,967 · +9.0%
• By 2040: 46,921 · +27.9%
• By 2050: 54,157 · +47.6%
• By 2075: 73,661 · +100.8%
• By 2100: 89,885 · +145.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 5% Native American 4% Two or more races 4% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 14% Scotch-Irish 4% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Morton

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+53.8) · D 22.2% · R 75.9% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -32.7pp toward R · 2008: -21.0pp · 2024: -53.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+53.8 2020: R+50.4 2016: R+53.0 2012: R+31.1 2008: R+21.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -161.81%
• Current HPI: 137.8984
• Rent YoY: ▲ 14.00%
• Metro: Bismarck, ND
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.09%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in ND)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Utilities / Construction	1	$6B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Listed $28,000 GNMLS