5483 Casablanca Cir Unit N-6 · Avon Park, FL 33870

$195,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,287 sqft · Condo public records · 22 Days on market

Built 1987

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Cash flow +1.4/30.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

55 + gated community with owner financing available to qualify buyers. Fully furnished and two (2) covered carports with storage units. Amazing area with many amenities and amazing pool. The condo is on a second floor corner unit with a beautiful view. For further info please call me @ 786-515-4182 Belkis to schedule viewing if interested ??

Key facts

• Gated community
• Covered carports
• Beautiful view

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• FULLY FURNISHED
• COVERED CARPORTS
• STORAGE UNITS
• BEAUTIFUL VIEW

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $195k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-774 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $151k (22.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $151k (22.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 1.5% vs local median 3.9% in Avon Park — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#407 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Highlands (other): math 45% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #54 of 73 in FL (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 475 active listings in the ZIP; 980 units permitted in Highlands County in 2024 (80 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($50k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($192k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $100k; list at $195k implies a 95% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 53% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $150,986 (22.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
9. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
10. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
11. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
12. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
13. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 1.53%
• Cash-on-cash: -17.00%
• DSCR: 0.24
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -55.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.55×
• Total profit: $-84,895
• Equity at exit: $29,075

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: -1.80×
• Total profit: $-152,836
• Equity at exit: $16,860

Cash invested: $54,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33870

• Home prices YoY: -20.0%
• Rents YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 475
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,510 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax from tax record: −$60 /mo · $715/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA est. from 3 same-building comps: −$803
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$317
• Net cashflow: $-774

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,489

Max offer price $58,331

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,750
• Closing costs: $5,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Likely covers: poolsecurity
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $195,000 Active 22 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $195,000 Active 21 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $195,000 Active 20 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $195,000 Active 19 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $195,000 Active 18 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $195,000 Active 16 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $195,000 Active 13 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $195,000 Active 12 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $195,000 Active 11 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $195,000 Active 10 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $195,000 Active 5 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $195,000 Active 4 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $195,000 Active 3 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $195,000 Active 2 DOM
15. 2026-05-18
    listed $195,000 Active
16. 2015-09-02
    soldstatus $100,000
17. 2004-11-17
    soldstatus $88,000
18. 2003-08-18
    soldstatus $80,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $715 · $60/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,618 · $135/mo
• Expected delta: +$903/yr (+$75/mo · 126.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,118
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,923
• − Property taxes: −$715
• − Insurance: −$975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,449
• − Management: −$1,449
• − HOA: −$9,636
• − Depreciation: −$5,673
• Taxable loss: −$12,702
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,049
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,235/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Highlands
• NCES district ID: 1200840
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $35,276
• Composite: 36.42/100
• National rank: #4672
• State rank: #54 of 73 in FL

Livability — Avon Park

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #407
• US rank: #7205

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Highlands County · 98,898 people
• City population: 25,501
• Metro: Sebring-Avon Park, FL
• Population (ZIP): 25,195
• Household income: $49,942
• Rent vs Own: 31.3% rent · 68.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 994.0

Population outlook (Highlands County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 99,674 people
• By 2030: 99,615 · -0.1%
• By 2040: 99,342 · -0.3%
• By 2050: 98,242 · -1.4%
• By 2075: 93,291 · -6.4%
• By 2100: 79,894 · -19.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Hispanic / Latino 22% Black 13% Two or more races 10% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Puerto Rican 7% Cuban 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Highlands

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+40.8) · D 29.3% · R 70.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.7pp toward R · 2008: -18.1pp · 2024: -40.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+40.8 2020: R+34.4 2016: R+32.0 2012: R+23.0 2008: R+18.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -68.68%
• Current HPI: 273.9861
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.29%
• Metro: Sebring-Avon Park, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+143.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Listed $195,000 Fizber.com
• 2015-09-02 Sold (Public Records) $100,000 Public Records
• 2004-11-17 Sold (Public Records) $88,000 Public Records
• 2003-08-18 Sold (Public Records) $80,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-3.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $715 · +9.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.